38% of Work Force by 2030 : Burgeoning Influence of Latinos Is Foreseen

California, nurtured by the traditions of Spain and Mexico, will probably become increasingly “Hispanicized” in the 21st Century.

The state was originally colonized by Spaniards, and the Hispanic influence is evident in place names such as “Los Angeles” and “Santa Rosa,” theaters that feature Spanish-language movies and markets that sell the fresh produce needed for Spanish dishes.

But by the year 2030, demographers predict, nearly half of California’s children and 38% of its working-age residents will be immigrants or children of immigrants from Mexico, about double the percentage now.

To meet the economic and political realities of the demographic shift, important policy decisions will be needed by the end of the century, social scientists said at a recent conference here on the “re-Hispanicization” of California.

Schools Must Change

California’s largely Latino work force will be called upon to support an aging non-Latino population, the experts said. If Latinos--who now earn about one-third less than Anglos--are to succeed, the state’s schools will need to change, educators said at the conference.

“Schoolbook lists after the turn of the century will have to include more than ‘Tom Sawyer’ and ‘The Scarlet Letter,’ ” said David Hayes-Bautista, a University of California associate professor of health policy.

Hayes-Bautista said the years 2010 through 2040 will be the most critical because the baby-boom generation of Anglos will reach old age and have to rely on the younger Latino population.

“What we will see from the year 2010 onward is essentially an age-ethnic stratification,” he said. “Anyone aged 65 and older will likely be Anglo, while younger people will likely be non-Anglos.”

California, the nation’s most populous state with 27 million people, now has the sixth-largest Latino group in the world, surpassed only by Mexico, Spain, Argentina, Peru and Colombia.

To Be Largest Group

In the 21st Century, Latinos will be the state’s largest ethnic group, ahead of Anglos, blacks and Asians.

One speaker at the conference, Sen. Paul Simon (D-Illinois), warned that finding jobs for all the immigrants crossing the U.S.-Mexican border is a paramount concern to all of the United States.

But he told Californians, “Because of your proximity to Mexico and Central America, you have a greater concern than most states and there are problems that must be addressed.”

Simon said Mexico’s population explosion and poor economy, as well as political upheaval in Central America, could speed California’s growth.

“Mexico’s population will roughly double in the next 40 years,” he said. “If on top of that, Mexico should have more serious economic problems--and that is no remote possibility--projected immigration figures in California will change dramatically.”

Estimate of Illegals

Conference speakers estimated that at least 1 million undocumented workers, largely Mexican, now live in California.

Most expressed doubts that the Immigration Control and Reform Act, which President Reagan signed into law in November, can halt the illegal movement of Mexican workers across the U.S. border, mainly because of huge economic disparities between the two countries.

“The pay for 45 minutes of work in the United States is roughly equivalent to an entire day’s work in urban parts of Mexico. The difference would be even greater if we were talking about rural parts of the country,” said Wayne Cornelius, a political scientist at the University of California, San Diego.

Cornelius said that only about 15% of Mexican immigrants were working in California’s huge agricultural sector. The immigrants are moving in increasing numbers into the state’s cities, just as Mexicans are abandoning the rural parts of their own country for Mexico City and other urban centers.

Increased urbanization is making Latinos more visible in Anglo communities, making immigrants “more vulnerable to scapegoating by every law enforcement officer trying to explain rising crime rates in his jurisdiction, every politician aroused by higher social service costs and so forth,” Cornelius said.

Predicts Reaction

He predicted that more Anglo reaction along the lines of Proposition 63, a measure passed overwhelmingly by California voters last November to make English the state’s official language.

Ironically, the state’s original 1849 Constitution, drafted after the Mexican-American War that brought California into the United States, was written in both English and Spanish.

Cornelius called the initiative an “assault” on Spanish culture and predicted more such attacks in the coming decades.

“I believe that the U.S. constituency for more Draconian government actions to reduce the presence of Spanish-speaking immigrants in the work place and in society in general will continue to grow,” he said.