Demands for Concessions Feared : Jackson Poses Dilemma as a Democrat Power Broker

In some ways, the Rev. Wade Watts, 67-year-old patriarch of Oklahoma’s black community and a pillar of the state’s Democratic Party, believes that Jesse Jackson would make “one of the best presidents.”

But, like a good many other members of his race and leaders of his party here and around the country, the stern-visaged, square-shouldered Watts is deeply troubled that, if Jackson runs for President again in 1988, he will do more harm than good.

“I wish Jesse would change his registration to Republican and cause the harm in their ranks,” he says.

It is hard to find Democrats anywhere, including those who gathered here in Oklahoma City last weekend to prepare for the 1988 campaign, who believe that Jackson--whose experience in 1984 seems to have made him a more relaxed, confident and formidable candidate--has a realistic chance of getting nominated, let alone elected. But party leaders nationwide are taking the Jackson candidacy, which he is expected to formally announce later this spring, with great seriousness.

They fear that he will run strongly enough to demand concessions from their ultimate standard-bearer, thus posing a dilemma so potentially divisive that it could wreck their chances of regaining the White House.

“The more the Democratic leaders seem to be yielding to Jesse Jackson, the more that puts off Middle White America,” says Austin Ranney, a University of California, Berkeley, political scientist and longtime Democratic loyalist. “It would serve to emphasize that the Democratic Party and its candidate are really just a bunch of tired old lefties who believe in all that big government, high tax, affirmative-action stuff. And that is not going to be helpful.”

On the other hand, a flat-out rebuff to Jackson, who geared up for his candidacy at a recent meeting with black politicians in Memphis, would scarcely be helpful either. That would risk alienating a good many black voters, who now make up nearly 20% of the national Democratic presidential vote.

Even More Formidable

Several factors are intensifying Democratic anxieties about Jackson and fostering the belief that the 45-year-old, one-time aide to Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. will be an even more formidable contender than he was in 1984, when he startled the party hierarchy by rallying black voters to his candidacy.

For one thing, Jackson has been down the presidential campaign road before, an advantage he shares only with 1988 Democratic front-runner Gary Hart. Then, too, none of Jackson’s white rivals are as well known to black leaders and black voters as the 1984 Democratic nominee, Walter F. Mondale.

And last, but far from least of the potential pluses for Jackson in 1988, is the newly established super Southern primary, a contest in which about one-third of the delegates to the Democratic National Convention will be selected. It is now slated for next March 8, only three weeks after the New Hampshire primary.

Although this mega-election in the conservative South was established mainly to prod the party into nominating a centrist, many party professionals believe that it could have the very different result of aiding Jackson--not enough to nominate him, but enough to make him a force to be reckoned with on the convention floor.

They reason that the white vote will be divided among several candidates while the black vote, which is substantial in a number of the super primary states, will go almost entirely to Jackson, thus giving him a chance to garner more delegates than any other candidate.

‘Jackson Would Win’

“If the super Tuesday primary were held tomorrow, Jesse Jackson would win,” says John Marttila, an adviser to the soon-to-be-declared presidential campaign of Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr. (D-Del.). “The one dynamic which may change this is if some (white) candidate breaks out of Iowa and New Hampshire and heads into super Tuesday with a head of a steam.”

Southern pollster Claibourne H. Darden Jr. points out that the white turnout in past Democratic primaries has been “excruciatingly low.” He predicts that it will be even lower in 1988 because “Jackson alienates middle-class white voters tremendously.”

In Same ‘Super Primary’

Oklahoma is one of 14 Southern and border states scheduled to pick their delegates in the same “super primary” early in the campaign, a competition that many believe will boost Jackson’s candidacy. But perhaps because Oklahoma’s own black population is not as large as that of some other super primary states, most attending the party conclave here tended to minimize the threat his candidacy posed to party unity.

The local view of Democratic chances in 1988 has been brightened by the shaky state of the economy in the Southwest and by the impact of the Iran- contra scandal. As party workers from the state’s 75 counties ambled from one convention hospitality suite to another, sipping whiskey and munching peanuts, their outlook was reflected by the buttons they wore: 1988 “eviction notices” depicting a jaunty Democratic donkey giving the boot to a vanquished GOP elephant.

So far as Jackson is concerned, Rep. Wes Watkins (D-Okla.) argued that even if the Democratic leaders are obliged to bargain with Jackson at their national convention, the party’s image would not be greatly damaged because, Watkins predicted, the convention would be deadlocked among a number of presidential contenders.

“We’re going to have to take care of six or seven other candidates, so it won’t look bad if we have to take care of Jesse too,” he said.

But the outgoing state chairman, Jim Frasier, took a dimmer view. “I recognize that Jackson is going to be a broker,” he said, “and it’s going to look rough, and it’s going to hurt.”

Jackson’s strength in the South has already helped him gain the support of one Southern governor, Edwin W. Edwards of Louisiana, where Jackson finished first in the 1984 primary. Edwards last month signed on with the exploratory committee Jackson has formed as a preliminary to his candidacy.

Wary of overbuilding expectations for his performance, Jackson himself makes no sweeping claims for super Tuesday. “My showing would be substantial and credible,” Jackson said in a recent interview. “In some states, Hart would do better.”

Such prudence is one of many indications that Jackson has benefited from having been exposed to the nominating process previously.

“Experience is an asset,” Jackson says. In 1984, he points out, “no one around us had ever run a national campaign before.”

Quietly Seeking Counsel

This time around, Jackson has been quietly seeking counsel of seasoned Democratic campaigners. Among them is Ann Lewis, head of Americans for Democratic Action and former political director of the Democratic National Committee.

Lewis helped shape Jackson’s dovish reply to party Chairman Paul G. Kirk Jr.’s recent speech, warning Democratic presidential contenders against destructive bickering. Jackson, attempting to avoid having his candidacy tagged as divisive, promised to stop complaining about party nominating rules and pledged to back the party nominee if his own bid falls short.

As he strives to clean up his act for 1988, Jackson has been impressing potential allies by paying more attention to the sort of logistical concerns with which his 1984 campaign was notorious for being either unwilling or unable to cope.

When he showed up right on time for a recent speaking date with a group of African Methodist Episcopal bishops in Arlington, Va., Bishop John Adams, the leader of the group, said of Jackson’s unaccustomed punctuality: “That in itself is a minor miracle.” Adams went on to introduce the guest of honor as “the next President of the United States.”

Never exactly a shrinking violet, Jackson seems more relaxed and self-assured than ever. At a recent Washington forum of the 1988 Democratic campaign, former Virginia governor and conservative spokesman Charles Robb asked Jackson how he would finance some of his domestic policy proposals.

‘Challenge as Democrats’

Instead of reacting defensively, Jackson took a tactful jab. “Well, let me tell you, Chuck,” he replied, “one of our challenges as Democrats is that both of us represent significant segments in the party, and we’ve never had a sit-down conversation.”

In more substantive terms, Jackson has sought for the last three years through the National Rainbow Coalition he founded to extend his appeal beyond the ranks of black voters to other economically disadvantaged Democratic constituencies, notably farmers and union members hard hit by Reagan-era economic trends.

As part of his base-broadening effort, Jackson is promoting an idea he calls “Invest America,” aimed at prodding money managers to put their funds to work building up domestic industries. “There is something rather ridiculous about our steelworkers’ pension funds being invested in steel mills across the world that undercut their jobs,” Jackson contends.

Jackson has already opened a field office in Iowa, where he scarcely campaigned in 1984 and where the Democratic nominating process begins with precinct caucuses Feb. 8. Jackson points to such efforts as evidence that his candidacy is “expansive, not divisive,” adding: “Some of the farmers supporting me have not been with the party since Lyndon Johnson’s time.”

But some white liberals still refuse to accept Jackson’s leadership because they cannot forgive his reluctance to dissociate himself from the anti-Semitic tirades of his Black Muslim supporter Louis H. Farrakhan and Jackson’s own slurring reference to New York City as “Hymietown.”

“Many of us find him personally repugnant,” says Tim Hagan, Cleveland Democratic leader, whose resolution to condemn racism and anti-Semitism at the 1984 national convention was tabled by party leaders worried that it might offend Jackson and his backers. “We are not upset with Jackson’s message--we are upset with the messenger,” Hagan adds.

Bedrock Support Is Black

Whatever the success of Jackson’s appeals to discontented whites, they hardly change the reality that his bedrock support is with black voters. And this seems likely to be even more potent in 1988 than it was in 1984 because no white candidate can claim the sort of credentials among blacks that Mondale had.

Strategists for Jackson’s white rivals argue that, through diligent campaigning, their candidates can ultimately gain black support. Paul Tully, national political director for Hart’s effort, cites polls showing that blacks have “favorable associations” with Hart’s record and calls that “a starting point.”

“There will be a large black element in our staff,” says Biden aide Marttila. “We expect to get key black endorsements.”

Conceivably, the competition for black votes could decide the campaign. “The white candidate who figures out how to get some significant number of black votes on super Tuesday will probably be the next nominee,” says Bill Carrick, campaign manager for Missouri Rep. Richard A. Gephardt.

Strategists for Jackson’s rivals say they will deal with him differently than in 1984, when Jackson’s opponents seemed to handle him with kid gloves. “He’ll be treated like any other candidate,” says national committeeman Mark Siegel. “There won’t be any patronizing.”

Contention He Cannot Win

But probably the most effective potential weapon against Jackson’s candidacy in the black community is the contention that he cannot win. Florida state Rep. Alzo Reddick says that he and other members of a group called the Coalition of Black Southern Democrats “are not going to support anybody who is not going to win. We cannot afford to allow another Republican President to come in.”

Another member of the group, Calvin Smyre from Georgia, says Atlanta Mayor Andrew Young, a Mondale backer in 1984, has talked to him about establishing a “united front” among black politicians that would help resist the pressure to back Jackson. As Smyre explained it, such a group would review the records of all Democratic contenders before endorsing any of them.

Young did not respond to telephone queries from The Times about his reported plan. And the plan may appear too much like a stop-Jackson movement to appeal to many black politicians worried about Jackson’s considerable appeal to their own constituencies.

Meanwhile, Jackson has been telling associates that Birmingham Mayor Richard Arrington, like Young a prominent black Mondale supporter in 1984, had promised to back Jackson in 1988. And other blacks are finding it hard to do anything else.

At a private meeting a week or so ago with black political leaders in Raleigh, N.C., Jackson was asked point-blank: “What makes you think you can win?” He reportedly replied: “My record shows that I can win. And, even if I can’t win, I can enhance your position in your particular bailiwick.”

The point was not lost on Jackson’s listeners, including North Carolina state Rep. Henry (Mickey) Michaux, who had organized the meeting. Beforehand, Michaux confided to a friend that he was determined to discourage Jackson from running because he feared that Jackson’s candidacy would be divisive.

But when the meeting was over, though he claimed to still have an open mind, Michaux emerged talking about the benefits Jackson’s candidacy would bring. Said Michaux’s confidante: “He looked like he’d been run over by a truck.”