With Guerrero Healthy, L.A. Should Contend

One day early last week, Pedro Guerrero walked out of the Dodgers’ training room with ice bags strategically attached to four parts of his body, making him move about as swiftly as a glacier.

There was nothing particularly wrong with Guerrero that day. It was as if the Dodgers figured that keeping their slugger refrigerated would ward off any injury that might possibly occur.

You cannot blame them for such preventive measures. The Dodgers suffered through the Big Chill last season when Guerrero tore up his left knee at the end of spring training and missed most of what became a miserable season.

Guerrero’s ruptured tendon, which sapped much of the club’s offensive power, turned out to be only the first of a series of injuries to Dodger regulars, the most serious and prolonged of the others striking Mike Marshall, Bill Madlock and Mariano Duncan.

Combine the injuries with the multiple fractures in the Dodger defense, which led the National League in errors with 181, and anemic efforts by a few healthy players, and it easily translates into a sickly 73-89 record and a fifth-place finish in the National League West.

A healthy Guerrero does not assure the Dodgers a division title, but it certainly is a good start. In 1985, when the Dodgers won the West, Guerrero hit 33 home runs, batted .320 and led the league in slugging average and on-base percentage.

“This guy is an awesome player, let’s not forget about that,” Manager Tom Lasorda said. “He’s one of the select few players who can carry a club. He makes an impression, positive or negative, on all of us.”

Because of Guerrero and other factors, the Dodgers have been wired on a positive current all spring.

“I would never want to go through another season like that,” Al Campanis, Dodger vice president, said. “We got a lot better club than people think. We just got to stay healthy.”

There is reason to believe the Dodgers will improve over last season, which isn’t exactly a feat since they matched the club’s worst record in Los Angeles (1967).

But the extent of that improvement remains to be seen, with these factors critical to the Dodgers’ chances in the West:

--Production from Guerrero, Marshall and others who rarely strayed from the trainer’s room last season.

--Improvement from the relief pitching corps, which includes Ken Howell, Tom Niedenfuer and new addition Matt Young, a left-handed short reliever who is this season’s replacement for Steve Howe.

--More reliability from a defense (especially at shortstop, third base and center field) that led the National League in errors the last two seasons.

--Continued success from Fernando Valenzuela, who became a 20-game winner last season for the first time in his career, and a return to 1985 form by Orel Hershiser, whose record fell from 19-3 two years ago to 14-14 last season while his earned-run average soared.

--Someone in center field, whether it be Ken Landreaux, rookie Mike Ramsey or a trade possibility, who can combine strong defense with adequate offense.

If all--or most--of that happens, the Dodgers will be able to reclaim the Western Division title that has belonged to them every odd year so far this decade (‘81, ‘83, ‘85). If not, then the club is facing the unsettling prospect of consecutive losing seasons for the first time since the 1967-68 seasons.

Failure for the second straight season probably would translate into a significant decrease in attendance, which still surpassed 3 million last season but went down by nearly a quarter-million from 1985. And if you thought the Dodgers made a lot of changes this winter . . .

But that’s taking the negative approach, which is not the Dodger philosophy.

Besides, sweeping changes are not the Dodgers’ style, especially when everyone from owner Peter O’Malley to Campanis and Lasorda is convinced that injuries were the dominant reason for the club’s 1986 demise.

Based strictly on Guerrero’s spring-training performance, management seems convinced that he has completely returned to his pre-injury form. More important, they say, is that the old obstinate Guerrero attitude has softened since he has turned 30.

Guerrero arrived in Vero Beach, Fla., two days before his teammates, played in more than half the spring games, batted .356 and seemed to run without favoring his left leg. Guerrero did not slide at all during spring training games, even when the situation called for it, but he says he will slide when it is necessary once the season starts.

This is the new, accommodating Guerrero, or so it appears. Guerrero, pronouncing himself fit, is eager to start the season.

“I feel ready for the real games,” Guerrero said. “I’m hitting the ball real good, maybe it’s because I came early (to spring training). I can’t say (whether) I’m going to have a good start, because I never had a good start.

“I’m just thinking to myself, ‘Be healthy and go out there and play.’ I just want to make it to the first game.”

That would be a change. On opening day last season, Guerrero made it as far as the on-deck circle, where he threw out the first pitch. He wasn’t seen on the field again until Aug. 1, and even after that, it wasn’t a healthy Guerrero in the lineup.

An indication of the extent of the club’s injury toll was that Guerrero and Marshall started only one game together in the outfield. Marshall had an excellent first half last season, leading the league in home runs (17) and ranking second in runs batted in (45) on June 20, before a mysterious back ailment essentially grounded him for the rest of the season.

“I’d like to see them from Day One to Day End in the same lineup,” Lasorda said. “Pete’s our big bopper. Between him and Marshall, that’s 60 home runs if they’re healthy. If one guy doesn’t get you, the other does. See how important they are to us.”

Though Guerrero and the Dodgers made it out of spring training unscathed, there still are lingering health questions.

Madlock, the veteran third baseman who played in only 111 games last season and spent two terms on the disabled list, has been bothered all spring by a sore right shoulder. Madlock, who admits spring training is not his favorite time of year, started only seven exhibition games at third base, but he said his shoulder is no big deal.

“The incumbent (Madlock) is one of the finest hitters in baseball,” Lasorda said. “We just hope we can get him out there every day.”

If they can’t, Tracy Woodson will play an important role. Woodson is a good defensive third baseman who also can fill in at first base and contribute as a pinch-hitter.

The way Lasorda and Campanis see it, though, third base is not the most important infield question.

That would be shortstop, where Duncan’s injuries ranged the anatomical chart. He had a sprained right knee, which later required arthroscopic surgery; a sprained left ankle; a bruised right calf; stomach problems, and a broken left foot.

After an excellent rookie season in 1985, Duncan slumped to .229 last year and committed 25 errors. Among National League shortstops, only Chicago’s Shawon Dunston had more errors--32, on 303 more chances.

Duncan had an excellent spring, which he also had in ‘86, and the Dodgers have been impressed with his renewed work ethic and attitude.

“He’s the key player for us,” Lasorda said. “Last year, when we lost him, it really hurt our ball club. I want him to be on base more. Every time he gets a hit or walks, it’s a double. That’s why I want him hitting in the No. 2 spot (in the batting order), with Madlock, Guerrero and Marshall behind him. Sometimes, he tries to hit the ball out of the park. We don’t want that.”

Not from Duncan, at least. But the Dodgers need Guerrero and Marshall’s power supply, as well as the home run potential of first baseman Franklin Stubbs, who hit 23 homers but not much else last season.

Naturally, improved run production makes it easier on the Dodgers’ starting pitchers. In another respect, an improved bullpen also would ease the pressure on the starters.

“I feel we’re better off than last year with Matt Young in the bullpen, and we’ve worked on defense and fundamentals (in camp),” Lasorda said. “When we left (Vero Beach) last year, the roof caved in on us. If we had just lost Pete, I thought we might have been able to make it. But then (losing) Pete, Duncan, Marshall--that changes the outlook of any team.”

Not many are picking the Dodgers to reclaim the Western title. Most magazines predicted the Dodgers would finish no higher than third.

Said Lasorda: “They are entitled to their opinions, even if they are wrong, just like I’m entitled to my opinion that we are going to be back.”

A closer look at the team, by position:

STARTING PITCHING

After winning 21 games in 1986, Valenzuela did not pitch last winter. The idea, apparently, was to rest a left arm that has thrown more than 250 innings each of the last five season. As a result, Valenzuela had his customary slow start this spring, but he has reached form in his last two exhibition starts. Even though Hershiser is tonight’s starter in the opener, there is no question that Valenzuela is the ace of the staff.

This is an important season for Hershiser, whose record slipped to 14-14 and whose ERA rose to 3.85 last season. Whatever the reason, Hershiser did not resemble the same pitcher that won 19 games in 1985. As he points out, the Dodgers were shut out in six games that he started last season, and they scored just 24 runs in his 14 losses. But Hershiser also had the worst strikeouts-to-walks ratio in his career (153 to 86).

Bob Welch and Rick Honeycutt are solid starters who annually wade gently through spring training to protect chronic injuries--Welch a bone spur in his right elbow, Honeycutt a sore left shoulder. This spring, both pitched strongly and said they had no physical problems after the initial soreness.

The fight for the fifth starting job was hotly contested all spring between Alejandro Pena, Tim Leary and Jerry Reuss. Based on performance, Pena was the clear-cut winner, giving up just one earned run in 18 innings. Pena has made an impressive comeback from serious shoulder surgery that sidelined him for virtually two seasons. But management remains high on Leary, acquired during the winter from Milwaukee for Greg Brock.

RELIEF PITCHING

When Lasorda needed short-relief help last season, he had only right-handers Howell and Niedenfuer to call on. During the winter, though, the Dodgers traded for Young, who had 13 saves in a little more than half a season for Seattle.

The Dodgers previously have brought in other left-handers--Carlos Diaz and Ed Vande Berg--who failed miserably. But despite his shaky Freeway Series performance, Young doesn’t figure to meet the same fate. The first save Young earns for the Dodgers will be more than either of his predecessors had. Then there are Howell and Niedenfuer. Lasorda previously has used one until he tired, then used the other until he tired. Young, at least, gives him another arm. There are indications that Howell has overcome a rotten second half last season, in which his ERA shot up to 6.30 after the All-Star break. Niedenfuer had a typically rough spring, but he pitched three shutout innings in his last three exhibition appearances.

“Number one, Matt Young puts the bullpen together,” Ron Perranoski, the Dodger pitching coach, said. “I think what Kenny Howell has done in the spring shows how much he’s improved. And even though Buff (Niedenfuer) hasn’t really showed it, he seems to have put it together, too.”

INFIELD

Bill Russell didn’t exactly ease into retirement. His first assignment as the newest Dodger coach was to do something about the Dodger infield--not the surface, but the players working on it. Almost every day in the spring, Russell had Duncan and second baseman Steve Sax working on double plays.

Sax is coming off a superb 1986 season, in which he hit .332, just two points behind batting champion Tim Raines. Sax did that with a bone spur on his right heel that required surgery last winter. Sax jokingly said that if it looks as if he isn’t going to hit as well this year, he’s going to ask the doctors to put the bone spur back.

“Sax has developed into a real good hitter,” Lasorda said. “He’s confident, disciplined and uses the whole field, not pulling the ball all the time.”

Stubbs had only a .226 average to go with his 23 homers in ’86. He suffered through two prolonged slumps, but the Dodgers are hoping that without Brock around as competition, Stubbs will relax and hit better.

Madlock is a defensive liability but such an offensive asset that they need him in the lineup.

OUTFIELD

Lasorda finally has an answer for the Dodgers’ perennial center-field dilemma. “We’ll put Pete in left-center and Mike in right-center and leave it at that,” he said.

Actually, the Dodgers may have finally found an excellent defensive center fielder without making a trade. Ramsey, a 26-year-old converted pitcher, has been compared defensively with former Dodger Willie Davis. The question about Ramsey is his hitting. The rookie had a .364 average in spring training, which may have convinced the Dodgers to give him the starting job ahead of the enigmatic Landreaux, at least at the start.

Landreaux is still around and still has that sweet swing. That’s what makes it so difficult for the Dodgers to cut him loose--OK, that and a guaranteed contract.

Left and right fields are set with Guerrero and Marshall, both said to be healthy and happy.

CATCHING

Mike Scioscia was another Dodger whose season was interrupted by injuries. Scioscia was on the disabled list from June 10 to July 15 after tearing up his right ankle. Scioscia’s batting average dropped from a career high of .296 in 1985 to .251 last season, second lowest in his career. Scioscia expects to hit better this season, but it is his defense and handling of pitchers that mean the most to the Dodgers.

Alex Trevino is a capable backup who proved it last season when Scioscia was injured.

BENCH

This is perhaps the Dodgers’ weakest area. When Russell retired and Enos Cabell was released, the Dodgers lost two reserves who could play both in the infield and outfield. So now, the Dodgers will need four utility men to do the job two did last season.

Dave Anderson’s back bothered him again in the spring, but he is back and is the best defensive infielder on the bench. Woodson can play both third base and first base and is a good pinch-hitter. Len Matuszek can fill in at first base and in the outfield and is a good left-handed pinch-hitter.

MANAGER

Lasorda is entering his 11th season as the Dodgers’ field boss and has not had two straight second-division finishes. Ever confident, Lasorda said improved health will translate into a healthy record.

This is sort of a transition year for the coaching staff. Monty Basgall, Lasorda’s longtime coach who sat next to him in the dugout and helped with strategy, retired. Who will fill that role? It will be either veteran third base coach Joe Amalfitano or Russell, the rookie coach whom Lasorda has groomed to replace Basgall.

“If I didn’t believe we could win the division, I wouldn’t be here,” Lasorda said.