Chance of Dark Horse Seen in Cloudy GOP Race

Before launching into his pitch for support for his long-shot presidential candidacy at the Midwestern Republican leadership conference this weekend, former Secretary of State Alexander M. Haig Jr. made a point of introducing his wife, Pat.

“Like my American Express card,” he said slyly, “I never leave home without her these days.”

Haig’s none-too-subtle allusion to the allegations of an extramarital affair that drove Democrat Gary Hart from his party’s presidential competition was one of a number of such wisecracks heard at this conclave. Many of the more than 800 Republican activists gathered here appeared to regard Hart’s misfortune as a stroke of good luck for them, because it left the Democratic opposition in a jumbled condition without a clear front-runner.

Rich Opportunity

What the GOP partisans seem to be overlooking--and what was clear at this session where seven presidential contenders came to bid for support--is that the state of the race in their own party is clouded with uncertainty and rich with opportunity for a resourceful dark horse.

Moreover, even though most of the long shots will fall short at the end, several of them probably will have an impact on the race. “We have got a number of serious candidates who, whether they win or not, reflect significant parts of the Republican coalition,” said Illinois state Rep. Ron Stephens, a supporter of Kansas Sen. Bob Dole, generally considered to be the chief rival of Vice President George Bush, the GOP front-runner.

“Some of these candidates, like (television evangelist Pat) Robertson and Haig have supporters who will follow them into hell, and we cannot ignore those people.”

Like many others who attended the conference, Stephens was particularly impressed by the performance this weekend of the hitherto obscure former Delaware Gov. Pierre S. (Pete) du Pont IV.

Criticized Bush

Du Pont got more than his share of attention first by arranging for a debate between himself and former Arizona Gov. Bruce Babbitt just as this conference was getting under way, and then by boldly criticizing Bush as isolated from grass-roots voters and challenging him to a debate.

Moreover, showmanship aside, Du Pont won plaudits, even from supporters of other candidates, for his drastic proposals for phasing out federal farm subsidies, scrapping the welfare system and modifying Social Security.

“He’s a much more serious and systematic person than most people realize,” said Republican Rep. Newt Gingrich of Georgia, a prominent backer of New York Rep. Jack Kemp’s presidential candidacy. “If Kemp can’t get his act together, Du Pont will come in third in Iowa behind Bush and Dole.”

Given the fact that Iowa’s delegate contest comes in February, early in the national competition, such a finish for Du Pont or any of the other dark horses would provide a tremendous boost toward winning supporters, raising funds and getting media attention.

Sign of Celebrity

Although Bush enjoys a substantial lead in the national polls, many attending the conference saw those figures as a sign of his celebrity and high position rather than of enduring political strength.

“I don’t think there really is a front-runner yet,” said Billie Gilpin of St. Joseph, Mo., secretary of the Buchanan County GOP. A button on her dress proclaimed her support of Kemp’s candidacy.

“He’s my first choice,” she said. “He’s the most charismatic candidate and I don’t think anyone can beat him in a debate.”

But she acknowledged doubts about Kemp’s chances. “He’s not organized as well as he should be,” she said, adding pointedly: “I just had a good one-on-one meeting with Bush, and I like him too.”

Her husband, Bernard, who is GOP county chairman back home, is just as flexible. He was wearing a Bush button, but pulled a Kemp button out of his pocket. “I love them both,” he said.

‘Fire-Eating Speech’

But speaking of the individual performances at the conference, Gilpin said: “Pat Robertson really amazed me.” The evangelist gave a fire-eating speech calling for the extermination of communism everywhere, including in the Soviet Union, and a return to traditional values in the classroom.

“He said things I would have said, and said them the way I would have said them.”

Few here even in this staunchly conservative crowd believe that Robertson has a realistic chance to win the nomination, particularly in the wake of the scandal involving fellow television minister Jim Bakker, which apparently has hurt at least temporarily Robertson’s hopes of broadening his base.

But Robertson’s own supporters have remained loyal and they already have demonstrated their political potency in Michigan. As a result of a major organizing drive in that state last year and a convenient alliance with supporters of Kemp, Robertson’s forces were able to seize control of the state party organization from pro-Bush party regulars.

In the long run, Bush’s strategists are counting on superior resources--money and organization--to make their man the 1988 standard-bearer.

Support for Reagan

But as Rich Galen, a consultant to Bush’s political action committee, put it: “There is no feeling in the Bush campaign of having this thing locked up.” Galen pointed out that Bush had his speech to the conference at a Saturday luncheon session rewritten at the last minute to insert an emotional pledge of support for President Reagan in the midst of the controversy over the Iraqi attack on the frigate Stark. The passage, delivered with impassioned conviction, won Bush a thunderous ovation.

When Bush was not winning cheers, he was closeted in his suite at the conference headquarters in the Marriott Hotel, seeking the support of activists.

Like front-runner Bush, Dole left little to chance here. Determined to take full advantage of the conference’s site on his Midwest home turf, Dole bused in several hundred supporters from his own state of Kansas. They strode the hotel corridors proudly displaying their Dole buttons and bright yellow Kansas sunflowers.

Just before Dole spoke Sunday, a few dozen paraded around the room to the tune of “As the Saints Go Marching In” bearing signs that urged one and all to join the Dole bandwagon: “We’re pulling out of the station, get on board.”

And when the music had died down, Dole did not fail to blow his own horn, unabashedly appealing to the self-interests of the farm state audience by pledging his allegiance to the farmers’ cause.