Super Tuesday Makes Early Contests Vital to Democrats

The big change in the Democratic presidential calendar, creation of a Super Tuesday primary in 14 Southern states next March, has had a paradoxical impact: It has added still more strategic importance to the two states where the nominating process begins next February--Iowa and New Hampshire.

And that, combined with other factors, has forced almost all contenders for the Democratic nomination to adopt surprisingly similar campaign game plans for next year’s contests.

The seven candidates have all but unanimously concluded that the mega-state challenge of Super Tuesday is so vast--and their own identities in voters’ minds so faint--that they can achieve success in the Southern balloting only by gaining momentum from strong showings in Iowa and New Hampshire.

In effect, five of the six announced Democratic contenders and a seventh likely candidate, the Rev. Jesse Jackson, have adopted strategic blueprints designed “to make a megaphone out of Iowa and New Hampshire,” as South Carolina Sen. Ernest F. Hollings, a failed 1984 contender, complains to fellow Democrats. The only exception is Tennessee Sen. Albert Gore Jr., the only white Southerner in the race.

Furthermore, as a result of the intense efforts in Iowa and New Hampshire, strategists and independent analysts believe the outcomes there will sharply reduce the size of the field competing on Super Tuesday, probably to no more than four.

But a final decision on a Democratic nominee may not necessarily come sooner than in the past because of the uncertainties overhanging this campaign. Since 1968, every Democratic nominating contest has dragged on to the climactic California primary and often beyond to the convention itself.

“I think this is going to be a long primary campaign, and that is what we are gearing for,” said John Sasso, manager of the candidacy of Massachusetts Gov. Michael S. Dukakis, who comes as close as any to a front-runner in the Democratic field because of his success at fund-raising and his strength in neighboring New Hampshire. “I think it will be decided in the Midwest and ultimately in the West,” Sasso predicts.

Wherever the final outcome is decided, the candidates’ decision to stake their fortunes on the earliest states is reflected typically in the schedule of Missouri Rep. Richard A. Gephardt. He spends an average of seven days a month in Iowa--where he is generally regarded as the strongest contender--four in New Hampshire and only four days a month in the Super Tuesday states.

Six candidates stumped Iowa this weekend. Dukakis and Gephardt engaged in a debate Saturday, and all six were to attend a fund-raiser in Marion, Iowa, Saturday night.

The Iowa precinct caucuses are expected to be held on Feb. 8, initiating the Democratic delegate-selection process; New Hampshire will hold the first primary on Feb. 16. The number of delegates at stake in the two states is only a fraction of the combined total in the Southern primaries.

As originally designed by Southern Democrats, Super Tuesday was intended to diminish the influence of Iowa and New Hampshire and heighten the impact of Dixie on their party’s choice of a standard-bearer. The 14 Southern and border states voting next March 8 will simultaneously choose roughly 30% of all the delegates to the 1988 nominating conventions.

But the very size of the Super Tuesday primary worked against its purpose and led strategists to bank on strong showings in Iowa and New Hampshire to win over Southern voters on Super Tuesday.

Gore is spending only “a few days” a month in the North, according to his campaign manager, Fred Martin, and is counting on regional loyalty to give his candidacy a Super Tuesday boost.

At the same time, although the South may not be able to dominate the process quite the way some of its leaders hoped, most Democratic pros believe their party will not nominate a candidate the South has already rejected. This, said Mark Siegel, Democratic Party executive committeeman, gives the South, in effect, “veto power” over the nominee on Super Tuesday.

Here is a brief summary of the early stages of each candidate’s most likely path to the nomination, based on the candidates’ own game plans, the views of their rivals and the assessments of neutral party professionals.

Colorado Rep. Patricia Schroeder, who is considering entering the race, is not included because she told The Times she does not yet have a campaign strategy.

Bruce Babbitt: It is easier to see the obstacles to the former Arizona governor’s candidacy than his assets. He hails from a small conservative state, has a lackluster television persona and a campaign that is already in debt.

But Babbitt and his aides have been diligently pursuing a strategy for overcoming those handicaps. One phase is for Babbitt to distinguish himself from the rest of the field by his forthrightness, as illustrated most notably by his recent call for a national sales tax to trim the budget deficit.

Another part is to run a low-budget operation, concentrating on canvassing for grass-roots support in the early states. Babbitt campaign manager Fred Duval contends--and many rivals concede--that Babbitt’s organization in Iowa is second only to Gephardt’s, while in New Hampshire only Dukakis is ahead of him.

Duval’s ideal scenario is for Babbitt to finish in the top two in Iowa, then in the top two in New Hampshire, then win the Feb. 23 primary in South Dakota and the March 5 caucus in Wyoming. “We want a couple of wins in our belt going into Super Tuesday,” he explained.

On Super Tuesday itself, said Duval, the idea will be to live up to or exceed expectations. “What everybody is going to be looking for is a combination of accumulating a lot of delegates plus the ability to win or finish second in some states.”

After Super Tuesday, Duval figures that Babbitt’s political success will have solved his financial problems and he will have to contend against, at most, two other candidates, including Jesse Jackson.

Joseph R. Biden Jr.: No one entered the campaign with brighter prospects than the senior senator from Delaware. His oratorical prowess and ability to raise money, second only to Dukakis on that score so far, all seemed to bolster his chances of attaining the strong finish in Iowa and New Hampshire that his strategists are hoping for.

Moreover, Biden has the support of well-connected party leaders in both of those states. He also has influential backing in the South, enough that some aides talk of “blowing out “ the opposition on Super Tuesday.

Despite all that, Biden has had surprising difficulty establishing the kind of clear message that is vital to the success of his strategy. He started off by dedicating his candidacy to the broad theme of “our children’s future,” but more recently has stressed his experience in foreign policy, presumably because of the Iran- contra affair and the tension in the Persian Gulf.

“The non-development of the Biden candidacy has been the biggest surprise of the campaign,” said Floyd Fithian, Illinois Sen. Paul Simon’s campaign manager, a judgment shared by a number of other Democrats.

But Biden still has the capacity to come on strong. His chairmanship of the Senate Judiciary Committee gives him a rare opportunity to capture public attention during next month’s confirmation hearings for Supreme Court nominee Robert H. Bork. Says Joseph Trippi, former deputy political director of the Gary Hart campaign: “Bork is his first primary.”

If Biden can show leadership qualities in the hearings, he can move to the forefront of the competition. But if he misplays his hand, he may not be able to overcome the negative reaction.

Michael S. Dukakis: In substantive terms, the foundation on which Dukakis’ battle plan rests is Massachusetts’ booming economy. He will rise or fall on his ability to convince Democrats outside New England that he deserves credit for the good times his state enjoys and can deliver the same prosperity to the other 49.

The governor’s strategists know they must overcome the efforts of Gephardt and other rivals to depict him as a regional candidate, meaning too liberal for the South and too much of an elitist technocrat for everywhere else. “If we’re seen as a category rather than as Michael Dukakis, then our job is very hard,” said political director Paul Tully.

Tactically, campaign manager Sasso said Dukakis needs to “do well” in Iowa, which his rivals define as no worse than a strong third, and “do well” in New Hampshire, which, because it is next door to Dukakis’ own Massachusetts, means nothing less than first place--or so the opposition claims.

To avoid being stigmatized as a regional candidate, knowledgeable sources say, Dukakis is throwing enormous resources into Minnesota, which intends to hold its delegate caucus the week after New Hampshire.

On Super Tuesday, those sources say, plans now call for focusing on five states: Florida, Texas, North Carolina, Georgia and Alabama.

Despite Sasso’s prediction of a long campaign, some believe Dukakis could just about clinch the nomination if he follows an impressive victory in New Hampshire by winning the most delegates on Super Tuesday. On the other hand, a Dukakis flop in Dixie could come close to ending his candidacy.

Richard A. Gephardt: The trade issue is to the Gephardt campaign what the Massachusetts economy is to Dukakis’ candidacy.

His stand in favor of safeguarding American producers against what he sees as unfair foreign competition is valuable in itself, winning Gephardt support from the United Auto Workers in Iowa.

More broadly, by pushing legislation that major newspapers and other opinion leaders have branded as protectionist, Gephardt comes close to fulfilling the promise made by his campaign manager, William Carrick, that his campaign will be “a classic insurgency.” His advisers appear to believe such a motif is necessary to give color and flavor to a candidate who does not generate much emotional energy.

Gephardt has already achieved his first tactical objective, which was to establish himself as the perceived front-runner in Iowa, slim as his lead may be. As a result, though, many analysts now feel that unless he wins the Iowa caucuses, he might have trouble keeping his candidacy alive. Carrick’s “perfect scenario” for a Gephardt victory is, first, to win Iowa and, second, to eliminate almost everyone but Dukakis by finishing as runner-up to the Massachusetts governor in New Hampshire.

“Then we clobber Dukakis everywhere in the South on Super Tuesday,” Carrick continued, “mortally wound him, and then finish him off in Illinois.” Illinois holds its primary on March 15, the week after Super Tuesday, with a huge bag of delegates, 173, at stake.

If things don’t work out that smoothly, Gephardt will shift into an extended campaign mode, calling on his House colleagues for aid in the primary and caucus warfare across the country.

Albert Gore Jr.: Unlike the strategies for most of the other Democratic candidates, which are based heavily on perceptions and expectations, the battle plan for Gore relies mainly on numbers.

The other candidates are counting on gaining momentum from Iowa, where there are only 52 delegates at stake, and from New Hampshire, where there are 18. But Fred Martin, Gore’s campaign manager, shrugs off the symbolic significance of those contests and instead fixes on Super Tuesday with its 14 states and more than 1,100 delegates.

“Never have we had so many delegates at play so early,” said Martin, who predicted that no candidate will win more than 200 to 300 delegates in the Southern contests, setting the stage for a prolonged battle.

The problem with Martin’s scenario is that, unless Gore makes a respectable showing in Iowa and New Hampshire, he may not have enough credibility left to compete vigorously on Super Tuesday. In 1984, two Southern contenders for the Democratic nomination--Sen. Hollings and former Florida Gov. Reubin Askew--saw their candidacies collapse after poor showings in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Martin says Gore cannot afford to ignore New Hampshire and Iowa because “he would run the risk of being classified as a regional candidate.” But he will not predict how well Gore has to finish in those states to keep alive in the South.

“We are going to be competitively present and accounted for on Super Tuesday, no matter what we do before,” Martin said.

Jesse Jackson: The thrust of Jackson’s early strategy has been to work to dispel the impression left over from 1984 that he is a divisive figure who does not have a realistic chance to get nominated.

His advisers reason that the civil rights leader needs a new look for 1988 when blacks figure to be more interested in supporting a candidate who can be elected President than in casting another protest vote.

Accordingly, Jackson has promised not to renew his complaints about party rules, adopted a milder rhetorical tone and sought to broaden his base, particularly in Iowa, where he has appealed to militant farm groups. And his spokesman, Frank Watkins, has declared that if Jackson does join the race, he will be in it to win.

But the problem is that Jackson must now meet the same sort of expectations faced by his rivals. Mayor Richard G. Hatcher of Gary, Ind., director of Jackson’s exploratory committee, calculates that Jackson needs to finish in the top three in Iowa and then in the top three in New Hampshire to build momentum and take advantage of his potential strength in the Super Tuesday states.

If Jackson can live up to the script in Iowa and New Hampshire, Hatcher said: “I honestly believe we would come out of Super Tuesday really very strong in terms of the nomination.”

But, Hatcher concedes: “If we are not able to do that well in either Iowa or New Hampshire, then I think what he (Jackson) will probably do is say: ‘Mayor Hatcher, let’s sit down and evaluate this great theory you had about how we were going to win this nomination.’ ”

Paul Simon: It helps in understanding Simon’s strategy to know that campaign manager Floyd Fithian believes the Illinois senator might well not have entered the race if New York Gov. Mario M. Cuomo had decided to run. Cuomo’s absence from the fray, Fithian explains, “left part of the message spectrum open” and created the opportunity for Simon to pound away at what Fithian calls the “traditional Democratic values”--such concerns as jobs, education and the needs of senior citizens.

The Simon scenario presumes that that sort of message will have particular appeal among the liberal activists in Iowa, where Simon enjoys the benefit of coming from the state next door. “This candidacy is based on the notion that Simon will do well in Iowa, and that certainly means coming in among the top half of the candidates,” Fithian said.

More specifically, the Simon objective is to finish in Iowa ahead of Dukakis who, because he is the front-runner and more particularly because he appeals to some of the same liberal voters, is regarded as Simon’s chief adversary on the national scene. Simon’s goal is to hold his own in New Hampshire, then pick up more ground the next week in contests in Minnesota and South Dakota, where his Midwestern origins should be in his favor.

On Super Tuesday, Simon’s strategy depends on how many candidates are left in the field but now the plan is to concentrate efforts on a few key states, probably including Florida. If Simon can survive Super Tuesday, he can expect a big boost from the Illinois primary the next week, though he might have to compete against a fellow favorite son, Jesse Jackson.

THE EARLY DEMOCRATIC CONTESTS By March 15, 47% of the pledged delegates to the Democratic convention will be selected. Date: Feb. 8 State: Iowa Delegates: 52 Date: Feb. 16 State: New Hampshire Delegates: 18 Date: Feb. 28 State: Maine Delegates: 23 Date: March 5 State: Wyoming Delegates: 13 Date: March 8 States: Alamaba, American Samoa, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington. Delegates: 1,307 Date: March 11 State: Democrats Abroad Delegates: 7 Date: March 12 State: South Carolina Delegates: 44 Date: March 13 State: Alaska Delegates: 12 Date: March 14 State: North Dakota Delegates: 15 Date: March 15 State: Illinois Delegates: 173 Total selected by March 15: 1,664 Total at Democratic convention: 3,517