FEARLESS FORECAST: With “Bad” coming out Monday,...

FEARLESS FORECAST: With “Bad” coming out Monday, Pop Eye thought it would be fun to handicap its sales potential, based on general momentum and industry buzz.

Keep in mind that follow-ups to blockbuster albums seldom do as well as their predecessors. Lionel Richie’s “Dancing on the Ceiling” sold 4 million nationally, compared to 10 million for “Can’t Slow Down.” And that was one of the most successful follow-ups. Prince’s “Around the World in a Day” sold 2 million, compared to 9 million for “Purple Rain.” Fleetwood Mac’s “Tusk” also did 2 million, compared to 12 million for “Rumours.” You get the idea.

But it’s also clear that media reports of a backlash to Jackson were exaggerated. “I Just Can’t Stop Loving You,” the first single from “Bad,” cracked the Top 10 in just three weeks. And by all reports, it’s far from the strongest cut on the album.

So, how well will “Bad” do? Let’s rate the album’s chances of hitting key sales plateaus, using pop song titles to give the odds (figures are for U.S. sales).

20 million--This would tie “Thriller” as the best-selling album of all time. Odds: “That’ll Be the Day.”

11 million-12 million--Would match the success of “Rumours” and the “Saturday Night Fever” sound track. Odds: “Let’s Get Serious.”

9 million-10 million--Would put “Bad” in a league with “Born in the U.S.A.,” “Can’t Slow Down,” “Purple Rain” and Boston’s 1976 debut. Odds: “Easier Said Than Done.”

7 million-8 million--Would match such smash hits as Whitney Houston’s debut, the “Grease” sound track, Bon Jovi’s “Slippery When Wet” and Madonna’s “Like a Virgin.” Odds: “With a Little Luck.”

5 million-6 million--Would tie such albums as Billy Joel’s “The Stranger,” Def Leppard’s “Pyromania,” Jackson’s 1979 hit “Off the Wall” and Madonna’s current “True Blue.” Odds: “Chances Are.”

4 million--Would tie such albums as Richie’s “Dancing on the Ceiling” and kid sister Janet Jackson’s “Control.” Odds: “Worst That Could Happen.”

If “Bad” sells fewer than 4 million copies, any number of song titles would apply. Among them: “Wipe Out,” “Another One Bites the Dust” and--from the hills of Encino--”Help!”