Demos Must Look West For a Winning Campaign

It’s time for Democratic presidential candidates to look west. The 13 Western states could well be a crucial battleground in the 1988 election.

Early polls suggest this scenario: Rep. Richard A. Gephardt of Missouri wins Iowa, Massachusetts Gov. Michael S. Dukakis triumphs in New Hampshire and Jesse Jackson and Sen. Albert Gore Jr. of Tennessee split the South. Thus, the 1988 Democratic nomination could be decided in the trench warfare of primaries and caucuses in such Western states as Oregon, Colorado, Montana and California.

Even Republican strategists admit that 1988 offers Democrats the best chance in a generation to recapture the West’s 111 electoral votes. Edward J. Rollins, Ronald Reagan’s campaign manager, predicted in 1984, “I think California is up for grabs after the Reagan period. I think the Republican pattern of voting in the presidential elections in the whole Pacific rim is up for grabs.”

Gary Hart’s 1984 race illustrated the beauty of a Western strategy: Indigenous Western campaign messages work in other parts of the country. Hart’s essentially Western themes of innovative economic growth, respect for the environment and challenging the political Establishment excited voters in New Hampshire and Iowa.

So now is the time for Democrats to start framing messages with the West in mind. If the politics thus far is any indication, non-Western candidates could benefit from a crash course in what makes the West and its politics unique. Here are some campaigner do’s and don’ts:

1) Educate yourself about the West’s paradoxical relationship to government. For all the talk about Westerners wanting government off people’s backs, activist government programs have been key to the region’s development. Extensive federal water projects, symbolized by the great dams, have literally turned deserts into farm land. While today’s fiscal realities dictate that public works projects meet cost-effectiveness standards, they remain part of the West’s lifeblood: Private investment has followed public investment time and again. President Jimmy Carter’s “take-no-prisoners” war on water projects didn’t save much money but it seriously dampened Westerners’ enthusiasm for him in the 1980 election.

The U.S. government owns an enormous amount of Western land, more than half the total area of Oregon alone. Managing that land is a mammoth job. Federal agencies the East and Midwest barely know exist, such as the Bureau of Land Management and the Forest Service, are powerful forces.

Of course, not all federal involvement is considered a plus. Defense-related work has provided economic diversification, but Westerners uneasily balance such economic growth against its environmental impact--from New Mexico’s uranium industry to Utah’s bomb silos to Washington state’s nuclear-defense facilities. When co-existence between jobs and environmental quality seems threatened, as with the MX missile, Westerners often put public health and the environment first. This can translate into hard votes: Sen. Harry M. Reid (D-Nev.) owes his election chiefly to his defiant stand against a proposed nuclear dump site.

2) Stress your political independence; losing your personal integrity is fatal. Look what happened to former Washington Sen. Slade Gordon: His 1986 reelection campaign was dealt a body blow by a deal he made with the White House to reverse his position on a key judicial nomination.

Which brings us to the next point: Westerners like their politicians squeaky clean. Hart’s downfall was played out in the national arena but there was a distinctly Western tinge to the drama of a politician who couldn’t live up to the high moral tone he had set for himself. The taint of impropriety can provoke Westerners to action unheard of in other regions: Several years ago, Oregonians recalled a state representative after allegations that, in campaign literature, he had claimed a degree he didn’t have. Contrast this with the ethics problems of numerous New York legislators or the tribulations of Louisiana’s governor.

3) Don’t forget that there’s more to the West than Los Angeles and San Francisco. After an important fund-raiser in Beverly Hills or Marin County, make sure you see the rest of the West. With the exception of California, Western states are used to personal--not media--politics.

4) Don’t assume because you’re familiar with the Eastern version of an issue that you know how it cuts in the West. In 1984, Geraldine A. Ferraro made this mistake. Aware of the federal power marketing agencies’ financial troubles and, with the Eastern perspective that Western power is cheap, Ferraro announced her support for a Bonneville Power Administration debt restructuring plan.

Unfortunately, she didn’t realize that forcing BPA to increase its rates (the restructuring’s important side-effect) could have driven jobs out of the already depressed Northwest.

The trade issue poses similar problems. The protectionist position paper that scores points in Des Moines union halls cuts differently in Pacific Rim states that have a favorable balance of payments with Far East nations. A number of Western ports would be devastated by import quotas or stiff tariffs.

5) Don’t worry about being a Democrat in states that haven’t sent a Democrat to the White House in a generation. There is little party loyalty behind most Westerners’ electoral decisions.

Even in the past five years, most Western voters have supported at least one Democratic governor, senator or state legislator on the basis of individual accomplishments. Last year, Oregon, which had cast electoral votes for a Democratic presidential candidate only once since Franklin D. Roosevelt, elected Democrat Neil Goldschmidt governor--because voters believed he could get the state’s economy moving again.

6) Learn the critical role geography plays. The West is far from major financial and political centers; strategies for cutting that distance are critical. The economic consequences of transportation and telecommunications issues are keenly felt. For example, Canadian firms now beat our timber prices in the East by shipping goods on foreign ships, which federal law prevents U.S. firms from doing--although a port director at one major Western port recently said a U.S. cargo ship last stopped at his port in 1972.

Telecommunications advances hold tremendous potential for linking the West with international financial centers, but federal laws should ensure that access is affordable for small and moderate-sized businesses that predominate in the West.

7) Make the politics of conciliation a major theme. As California State Senate Majority Leader Barry Keene put it recently, “The impact of the West lies not in confrontation but in conciliation. The West is teaching us, and has taught us from the very beginning, how man must live with nature, how cultures amalgamate, how man lives with man.”

In 1984, Hart drew on a variant of this: In contrast to Walter F. Mondale’s fragmented, special-interest constituency approach, Hart sought to stand for everyone working together. The theme has been used by Reagan as well. It’s particularly Western, going back to the time when opening up new frontiers required group efforts and cooperation.

8) Integrate “wellness” and its variants--respect for the environment, health-care policy, even education--into campaign themes. Westerners are serious about their recreation. We value the things that keep us active, from clean water to preventive medicine. Education is an extension of these concerns. California’s Bill Honig and Washington state’s Booth Gardner have both pushed education to the forefront of their state’s agenda, to wide public acclaim. Voters all over the West are going to want to know how you see the federal role in this.

9) Remember that, since the Louisiana Purchase, the politics of the West have been about the future. That remains true. Issues before us range from the challenges posed by California’s projected majority-minority population by the year 2050, to finding enough water, to dealing with nuclear waste that must stay isolated for 10,000 years. These are tough issues that test a candidate’s mettle. But if you want to win the nomination and the White House, go West.