PREDICTING THE FUTURE OF TORRANCE

Jared Sidney Torrance could scarcely have predicted what would become of the city he founded in 1912. Today, as the city rings in its 75th year, a few forecasters have taken a look at what the next 75 years could bring.

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When Jared Sidney Torrance founded his model city of industry in 1912, he could hardly have imagined it would ever look like Torrance today.

The mammoth Del Amo mall, the neat residential neighborhoods, the maddening traffic, the high-tech industry, the Pacific Rim trade links--they all lay years in the future.

Now, as the largest city in the South Bay celebrates its 75th anniversary this weekend, only the hardiest prognosticators venture to guess what the Torrance of 2062 will be like.

“You’re talking 75 years and you’re talking science fiction,” said Roger Selbert, editor of the FutureScan newsletter on social, economic and marketing trends.

“Anyone,” declared Mayor Katy Geissert, “who seriously tries to predict what the city will be like 75 years from now is either a genius or insane.”

Five-Year Plans

City officials plan only five years ahead. Regional planners make estimates only 25 years in the future.

During the next 75 years, plagues, earthquakes, nuclear war, climatological changes--even contact with extraterrestrial civilizations--could change life on Earth, not to mention Torrance, drastically and unpredictably.

Less dramatic possibilities--shifts in population, increased urbanization and rationing of fuel, water and other natural resources--could have profound effects on the city.

Will Torrance still be here in 2062?

“That’s tough to say,” said City Manager LeRoy Jackson, adding after a moment’s reflection: “There is a strong probability that we will be here.”

If the 150th anniversary of the city is clouded in the misty future, some can see at least partway along the path ahead.

Tentative Predictions

The tentative future, according to city officials, educators, business and labor representatives, regional planners, seismologists and professional futurists interviewed by The Times, is this:

As ethnic minorities, particularly Asians, move to Torrance, the city will lose its character as a largely white preserve. The city’s population will become older as the high cost of homes continues to price out younger families. As a result, the school population will continue to shrink, but there will be a parallel boom in adult education.

Development will continue during the next 20 years because of the city’s strategic position between Los Angeles International Airport and the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. But too much growth could easily lead to a high-rise, high-density atmosphere that could threaten Torrance’s image as a good place to raise a family.

A counter trend, stemming from the emergence of politically potent slow-growth neighborhood groups, could preserve most of Torrance as attractive residential areas but might paralyze development, leading to stagnation and decline.

By 2000, redevelopment of 285 acres on the eastern edge of the city will be completed, resulting in 12,000 new jobs. The next major area for redevelopment will be Hawthorne Boulevard north of Torrance Boulevard.

By the year 2000, the median price of a single-family home, now $229,000 in Torrance, will be more than $500,000. If homes continue to appreciate at an average 7% a year--the figure economists use for Los Angeles real estate projections until 2000--a home in 2062 will cost almost $37 million.

Water shortages, including the possibility of rationing, could occur in Torrance as early as the mid-1990s.

The price of trash collection, now $9.25 a month for residences, will soar by the mid-1990s to pay for longer hauls to more distant dumps.

Traffic on city streets and the freeways will get worse.

A major earthquake has a good chance of striking Torrance during the next 75 years.

Other problems include refurbishing residential neighborhoods, most of which were built in the 1950s when smaller houses were in style; assimilating large groups of minorities, and, according to the mayor, fending off other government agencies.

State Takeover

Potential power grabs, according to Geissert, involve a state takeover of local school districts, including the Torrance Unified School District, and distribution of sales tax revenues to cities by population instead of by sales, which would hurt cities like Torrance that are major retail centers.

In addition, residents have voiced fears that the Federal Aviation Administration might force commuter jets on the Torrance Municipal Airport, environmentalists worry that the federal government will insist on installing offshore oil rigs nearby with a potential for air and water pollution and council members have expressed concern that the Torrance Transit bus system might be forcibly merged with a countywide transportation network.

“The greatest threat to the continued well-being of Torrance is encroachment on local options and local control by other levels of government,” the mayor said. “We can maintain the quality of life in this community if we are left to make our own decisions on most major issues.”

In its 75th year, the community of Torrance has a population of about 135,000, about 52,000 homes and 84,000 jobs, according to the latest census estimates.

With a median family income of $33,000, its residents rank comfortably above the South Bay and Los Angeles County medians ($30,000 and $24,000, respectively).

Figures for 1985 by Dun and Bradstreet Corp. say the ethnic complexion of the city is largely Anglo (82%), with Latinos 9%, Asians 8% and blacks 1%. In the schools, where ethnic breakdowns typically represent future trends, the 1987 fall enrollment figures show that Anglos are 63%, Asians 25%, Latinos 10% and blacks 1%.

Other Demographics

The adults are married (82% of all households), a high percentage hold professional and managerial jobs (29%), 22% hold college degrees and a majority of the mothers (60%) work outside the home. About 91% drive to work, with 68% spending 15 minutes to an hour to get to work on freeways, where the average speed is 37 miles per hour. Household size in Torrance (2.5) is smaller than the rest of the South Bay (2.56) and Los Angeles County (2.61). The median age is just over 35.5; the proportion over 65 is 10.6%.

Torrance students as a group score above the state and national average on standardized tests and do better than California students in the same socioeconomic class. The school system, whose enrollment has declined from a 1968 peak of 34,000 students to 19,000 today, sends half of its graduates to college. Adult education, boosted by immigrants taking English classes and retirees seeking enrichment, enrolls 20,000.

If that capsule represents the Torrance of today, the following tentative time line spells out the educated guesses of the officials, planners, professional futurists and others about what’s to come. Many of the dates are viewed only as targets and, in the case of public works projects, are subject to funding delays.

1988: Early in the year, Pacific Smelting Co. shuts operations at its site on Western Avenue north of 223rd Street. One of the last heavy industries in Torrance--the sort that founder Torrance planned as the economic base for his city--the plant’s shutdown brings an end to an era. In keeping with the spirit of the 1980s, Pacific Smelting begins cleanup of soil contaminated by 50 years of smelting operations. The environmental work is expected to take a minimum of two years.

1989: The city’s new General Aviation Center opens. Flight operations level off at about 240,000 a year after a decade-long decline.

A long-planned Torrance Transit bus line from Del Amo mall begins running to Los Angeles International Airport.

1990: Median family income has climbed to $43,400. The median age has increased to 37.9; the percentage over 65 has grown to 13.7%. Household size remains constant at 2.5. Anglos decline slightly to 78%, Asians 11%, Latinos 9% and blacks 2%.

Torrance Transit begins running a bus line along 190th Street, linking California State University, Dominguez Hills and Carson Mall with the north end of Torrance.

Increased commuter traffic stemming from residential construction on the Palos Verdes Peninsula clogs Hawthorne and Crenshaw boulevards and Pacific Coast Highway.

1992: School enrollment levels off at 17,500. The percentage of Asians continues to grow, with Anglos declining and Latinos and blacks holding steady. Adult education enrollment continues to rise.

In the eastern redevelopment areas, a $280-million project on the 100-acre Honda site is completed, and the complex of offices, light manufacturing and warehouse and research facilities employs 2,000. Two nearby projects, known as Torrance Center One and Torrance Center Two, have also been completed at a construction cost of $163 million. The two mixed-use projects, which include offices, hotels, restaurants and light manufacturing, employ 5,000.

The 12-acre Pacific Smelting site has been recycled into a $38-million office and commercial center that employs 750. Two smaller projects--one on Western Avenue near Plaza Del Amo, the other on Carson Street between Border and Abalone avenues--have also been finished at a combined cost of $6 million; several hundred people work there.

1993: The light rail line connecting with the just-completed Century Freeway rail route reaches south from Los Angeles International Airport to the northern boundary of Torrance at Hawthorne Boulevard. Proposals are made to double-deck Hawthorne Boulevard for traffic as the light rail heads south through Torrance on an elevated track.

Torrance commuters benefit from completion of a project widening the San Diego Freeway from 8 to 10 lanes between the Harbor and the Marina del Rey freeways.

1995: A busway along the Harbor Freeway from the Convention Center to the Terminal Island Freeway is completed at a cost in 1985 dollars of $500 million, and Torrance Transit begins bus service to express bus terminals along the freeway.

Mid-1990s: Trash disposal prices soar as the city’s residential customers generate 220 tons of trash a day, a 5% increase over the late 1980s. The reasons for the price hikes: Space at Los Angeles County landfills is used up; neighborhood and environmental protests block the opening of new landfills and waste-to-energy plants, and Torrance, with other Los Angeles municipalities, must send its garbage farther and farther away. The city’s 1987 $17-a-ton cost of garbage disposal becomes closer to the $200-a-ton costs common on the East Coast during the late 1980s.

Meanwhile, water shortages loom as consumption in Torrance reaches 25 million gallons a day, up 19% over the levels of the late 1980s. The reasons: Arizona demands its court-awarded share of Colorado River water to slake the thirst of development there, and Northern California continues to resist construction of the Peripheral Canal to bring Lake Oroville water to Southern California. The city undertakes active promotion of water conservation and in drought years imposes water rationing.

1997: After sustained efforts by the Torrance Area Chamber of Commerce, the city establishes a foreign trade zone at several sites. The zone permits manufacturers to import foreign-made components duty-free and complete assembly here, taking advantage of cheaper import duties on fully assembled products.

2000: Spillover from the completed 285-acre redevelopment project on the city’s eastern boundary has benefited the old downtown section to the west, and upscale nighttime entertainment springs up there, possibly including a repertory theater.

Residential sections just east of Western Avenue are recycled into higher-priced properties.

Redevelopment along Hawthorne Boulevard north of Torrance Boulevard is well under way, with developers pushing for a “canyon” of high-rise office and commercial buildings and neighbors arguing for less-dense development.

The house that sold for $229,000 in 1987 now costs $516,000. Vacant lots have virtually disappeared. Room additions and renovations are widespread in residential areas built in the 1950s, but many home buyers bulldoze existing houses to put up larger, more modern structures.

2007: Reflecting the aging of the Torrance population, the first senior village will be completed in the eastern part of the city near the downtown business district. The village is a complex of specially designed apartments and recreational and health facilities.

2010: Average freeway speeds sink to 17 miles per hour.

The Torrance population rises to 145,000, an 8% increase over the mid-1980s but well below the 26% increase projected for Los Angeles County. Housing units rise to 58,700, a 14% increase over the mid-1980s. That increase lags behind a 30% rise in housing units projected for the county as a whole. The number of jobs rises to 104,700, a 26% increase that is less than the 36% increase for the county.

Along with the rest of Southern California, the ethnic complexion of Torrance continues to undergo rapid change.

2012: The light rail line connected to the Century Freeway reaches the southern edge of Torrance at the intersection of Pacific Coast Highway and Hawthorne Boulevard. The idea of double-decking Hawthorne Boulevard--ridiculed when first proposed in the mid-1990s--is taken more seriously now after several gas shortages and persistent traffic jams.

Sometime in the next 75 years:

One or more major earthquakes strike Torrance. No one knows the dates, but seismologist Steven Wesnowsky, writing in a 1986 issue of the Journal of Geophysical Research, attempted to compute the probability, putting together what is known about recurrence cycles and strengths of quakes along the known faults in Southern California.

The results of his computer analysis are that the chances during the next 50 years that Torrance will be hit by a major quake are between 10% and 30%. In an interview, Wesnowsky said the chances are substantially higher for a 75-year time span.

Faults that could produce such a quake include the San Andreas fault, the Whittier fault, the Inglewood-Newport fault and its offshoots that traverse Torrance, and the Palos Verdes fault. Although a major quake (8.0 on the Richter scale) on the San Andreas fault is predicted to have a better than 50% chance of occurring during the next 75 years, its distance from Torrance (more than 50 miles) makes it less dangerous than a less powerful (6.5) quake on the Inglewood-Newport fault, which passes within several miles of Torrance.

Regional planners look only 25 years ahead and beyond that, only McClain of the Chamber of Commerce--part whimsically, part seriously--dared to make specific predictions:

2012: The city’s 100th birthday celebration will be held at Wilson Park, McClain said. The city will unveil an official laser sculpture and sponsor a nationwide youth soccer tournament to celebrate the anniversary. The celebration theme will be nostalgia for the good old days of the 1980s.

2017: About 90% of the homes in Torrance are connected to a cable television network, which began operating about 2000 and which links shopping, security and emergency services and offices. Transportation problems make working at home via computer and television hookups increasingly popular.

2020: The city begins work on an elevated light rail system along Pacific Coast Highway, Western Avenue, Artesia Boulevard and Torrance Boulevard.

2027: Torrance completes a convention network facility that allows worldwide satellite communications necessary for the international firms with offices and operations in Torrance.

2037: The light rail network is completed; spurs to the airport and the ports carry passengers and cargo. The aging Del Amo mall, renovated several times over the years, has been converted to a distribution center for home marketing through cable television.

Two futurists interviewed by The Times say that specific projections cannot be made, but that some broad trends can be discerned that apply to Torrance.

Gregory Schmidt, a senior research fellow for the Institute for the Future in Menlo Park, predicted that increasing traffic congestion and better communications facilities will mean many more people living in Torrance will work in their homes or in nearby office centers.

Torrance will benefit greatly because of the emergence of the Pacific Basin as equal in importance to the 21st Century as the North Atlantic Basin was to the 19th and 20th centuries. In addition, the city’s economy will be boosted by its proximity to aerospace and high-technology industry.

“Torrance’s placement gives it a a couple of very strong cards to play,” Schmidt said.

Another international trend that helps Torrance, Schmidt said, is the possible emergence of a North American Common Market for free trade among the United States, Canada and Mexico.

Schmidt said Torrance is likely to continue to exist as a separate governmental entity in 2062.

“That ability to control, or at least respond to the environment, is very strong,” he said. “People want to have more control over the community they live in . . . despite the problems of coordination. The range of decisions they have to control might narrow. Traffic pressures, pollution are things they cannot control.

“But those little things, zoning, the quality of the schools, the responsiveness of your basic services--police, fire, parks--all those things are things that grow in importance over time.”

Selbert, the FutureScan editor and Los Angeles-based futurist, said he foresees a real possibility that Torrance’s strategic location might turn it into an important urban focal point within the Los Angeles basin. He predicted that the potential will make Torrance the arena for an intense struggle between development and neighborhood interests.

None of the sources interviewed offered specific policy prescriptions to guide the future leaders of Torrance, but Geissert says they should look back to the philosophy of the original vision unveiled that dusty, windy day in 1912 by a man with a cane wearing a straw hat.

“The city has gone beyond Jared Sidney Torrance’s wildest dreams, but he did have a dream of a balanced community, and that has remained: residential, industrial and business, with each being important,” Geissert said.

“If the city is going to maintain its viability . . . those components will still be needed.”

2062: Torrance celebrates its 150th anniversary.