3 Legislative Races Regarded as Most Crucial in California

A year before the 1988 general election, campaign strategists say that three Southeast Los Angeles County races are shaping into the state’s most crucial legislative contests.

Robert Naylor, chairman of the state Republican Party, described the three races as “the top battleground of the state for legislative gains or losses for either party . . . We’ll spare no effort. . . .”

At stake will be the 33rd Senate District, won in May in a high-spending special election by Cecil N. Green (D-Norwalk); the 63rd Assembly District, held since 1984 by Wayne Grisham (R-Norwalk), who lost the Senate contest to Green, and the heavily Democratic 54th Assembly District, which was captured in an upset last year by Paul E. Zeltner (R-Lakewood).

In the Assembly, Democrats now hold a 44-36 edge. In the Senate, Democrats have a 24-15 margin, with one seat occupied by an independent.

Seats Regarded as Pivotal

Republicans regard the three Southeast seats as pivotal to their goal of taking control of the Legislature and, in turn, the highly partisan, once-a-decade process of re-drawing district lines after the 1990 election.

For Democrats, Green’s victory gave them renewed hope of blocking further GOP electoral inroads, especially among traditional working-class constituencies that began crossing over to the GOP column in the 1970s. Zeltner’s seat went into the Republican column last year and Grisham took his in 1984, succeeding Democrat Bruce Young, who retired.

Like detectives searching for clues to solve a mystery, campaign consultants are puzzling over demographic data, voter registration figures and poll results to determine the makeup of the local electorate.

So far, the facts and figures reflect an area of bedroom communities distinguished by stable populations of blue-collar workers who own their homes. Their income levels are above the norm in Los Angeles County, but education levels are slightly below the county median. Democrats still outnumber Republicans and remain strong in mostly black Compton and in Latino areas around Norwalk. But white voters, including Democrats, are friendly to conservative candidates.

“We have a lot of people who are Democrats by registration, but in the last few years have felt disaffected and voted Republican,” said Harvey Englander, an Orange County-based political strategist who has handled Democratic campaigns in the Southeast area.

In contrast, GOP loyalists tend to be anyone registered as a Republican. “They do not defect unless you have a complete bozo” running as a candidate, said Bruce E. Cain, a Caltech political science professor who has studied voting trends.

Cain views the area “as a weather vane for what’s happening to the Democratic Party in the state. If it has high defection rates and registration continues to drop, that suggests an important constituency may be switching to Republican or independent.”

The major cities that make up the Southeast political battlefield are Bellflower, Cerritos, Compton, Downey, Lakewood, Norwalk and the eastern edge of Long Beach.

Cain noted that statewide, the most solid Democratic areas are heavily minority communities like Compton. Other Democratic strongholds are found in liberal and Jewish precincts on the Westside of Los Angeles and counties ringing San Francisco Bay where environmental concerns are strong.

Statewide, he said, the key to elections is held by swing voters, especially Democrats in rural areas like the San Joaquin Valley and suburban cities like those in Southeast Los Angeles County. Cain said these voters remain registered Democrats out of their experiences forged in the Depression or the post-World War II era or because of lingering attachments to labor unions. However, he said, they are cautious about supporting Democrats who appear too sympathetic to feminist causes or are too liberal on such social issues as welfare funding.

GOP Registration Climbs

As younger families and white-collar workers have moved into the southeast corner of the county, Democratic registration has declined and Republican numbers have edged upward.

In 1982, in the Los Angeles County portion of the 33rd Senate District, which makes up about two-thirds of the district, registered Democrats outnumbered Republicans 59.7% to 32.7%. By March, the secretary of state’s office reported that the advantage had shrunk to 53.7% Democratic and 38.3% Republican. That ratio is considered only marginally Democratic because GOP voter turnout is historically higher.

During the same period, Democratic majorities in the two Assembly districts also slipped by several percentage points. In the 63rd Assembly District, Democrats now outnumber Republicans 57.7% to 34.8%, and in the 54th Assembly District, 65.3% to 27%.

The outcome of 1986 general election contests illustrates that the results of balloting do not necessarily match party registration figures. For example, even in the strongly Democratic 54th, Gov. George Deukmejian in 1986 squeaked past Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, 49.3% to 49%. Deukmejian won the other two legislative districts by even higher margins.

But voters swing between the two parties. For instance, U.S. Sen. Alan Cranston easily defeated his GOP rival, Ed Zschau, 58.9% to 37.5% in the 54th. Cranston lost in the other two districts--but by slimmer margins than Bradley.

Larry Sheingold, a Sacramento-based consultant who helped engineer Green’s victory, characterized Southeast voters as “non-ideological.” Said Sheingold: “What we found was these people were very interested in themselves and their communities,” especially the level of services provided by government.

GOP campaign consultant Allan Hoffenblum offered one possible explanation by describing the area as “one of the most stable parts of the county.” For example, he said he grew up in Lakewood in the 1950s and his old neighborhood, with its well-manicured homes, looks much the same today as it did in his youth.

While 46.4% of housing countywide is owner-occupied, the figures are much higher in the three Southeast districts, according to data compiled by the Los Angeles Times marketing research department. In the 63rd Assembly District, 63.9% of housing was owner-occupied in 1985; 60.2% in the 33rd Senate District, and 59.1% in the 54th Assembly District.

Another feature that sets apart the area is that income levels rank above countywide figures. Figures collected by The Times show that in 1984 the county’s median income was $22,455. In all three Southeast districts, the figure was higher: $27,475 for the 63rd Assembly District, $26,338 for the 33rd Senate District and $23,360 for the 54th Assembly District.

Racial Figures Vary

The racial and ethnic breakdowns vary much more widely in the three districts. For instance, the white population across the county stands at 67.9%, but in the 33rd Senate District it was 79.1% and in the 63rd Assembly District, 77.5%. In the 54th Assembly District, only 55.8% of the population is white, with 28.8% black--compared to the countywide average of 12.6% for blacks.

Despite the relatively large number of blacks in the 54th District, some politicians question whether a black candidate can win there. Part of the Southeast area is represented in the House of Representatives by Mervyn Dymally (D-Compton), who is black. But Zeltner, running a shoestring campaign, managed last year to defeat Democrat Edward K. Waters, who is black and who was heavily bankrolled by his mother, Assemblywoman Maxine Waters (D-Los Angeles) and Assembly Speaker Willie Brown (D-San Francisco). In his close but clear-cut victory, Zeltner captured 2,650 more votes than Waters and took about 10% of the vote in Compton. However, turnout in Compton, which Waters had counted on for a hefty margin, was only 44.6% compared to 54.6% in the entire district.

After the election, Brown charged that racial factors figured into Waters’ loss. “They were voting on the basis of ethnic origin,” Brown said. He said a black could win the seat “if a few more blacks moved into the district.”

But other political consultants suggest that it is difficult to isolate racial factors as decisive, citing the 31-year-old Waters’ lack of ties to the area, which he moved into just before the campaign. In contrast, the 61-year-old Zeltner was a veteran of the Lakewood City Council.

Tied to Liberal Mother

Consultants also say that Waters could not overcome his inexperience as a campaigner or divorce himself from the liberal politics of his mother and Speaker Brown.

In an area where a high percentage of people own their own homes, Caltech’s Cain said, voters are “going to be susceptible to someone they know.”

“If Waters had been 10 years older, married and (had) two kids he might have done better,” Englander suggested.

In fact, all three men who now represent the Southeast districts are grandfathers with long ties to the area, having served on local city councils. Green is a longtime Norwalk resident who had served on the City Council and was a local businessman. Zeltner is a retired sheriff’s captain as well as a former councilman, and the white-haired Grisham is a former congressman from La Mirada.

“The candidates who are young and single are going to have a tougher time going against the incumbents,” Englander said. “Democrats ought to be looking for candidates in the Cecil Green kind of image.”

Times researcher Cecilia Rasmussen assisted with the preparation of this story.

DEMOGRAPIC COMPARISON OF THREE DISTRICTS

Los Angeles/ Item Long Beach 33rd SD* 1985 Population 7,989,770 401,453 Race: White 5,421,199 67.9% 317,455 79.1% Black 1,008,638 12.6% 8,671 2.2% Native Am. 51,416 0.6% 3,416 0.9% Oriental 445,791 5.6% 23,294 5.8% Other 1,062,726 13.3% 48,617 12.1% Hispanic 2,207,573 27.6% 120,349 30.0% Occupation: White Collar 2,130,558 57.5% 94,482 50.9% Blue Collar 1,098,197 29.6% 70,176 37.8% Service 438,474 11.8% 19,048 10.3% Farming 40,587 1.1% 1,778 1.0% Median Years of School: 12.7 12.5 Median Household Income (1984): $22,455 $26,338 Housing: Owner/ Occupied 1,452,525 46.4% 83,695 60.2% Renter 1,544,365 49.3% 51,914 37.3% Vacant 134,980 4.3% 3,474 2.5% Total 3,131,870 139,083 Median Home Value: $107,651 $96,628

Item 54th AD 63rd AD 1985 Population 309,873 314,504 Race: White 172,771 55.8% 243,788 77.5% Black 89,126 28.8% 7,540 2.4% Native Am. 1,802 0.6% 2,724 0.9% Oriental 5,544 1.8% 20,508 6.5% Other 40,630 13.1% 39,944 12.7% Hispanic 62,264 20.1% 101,366 32.2% Occupation: White Collar 63,830 48.8% 73,783 51.2% Blue Collar 49,043 37.5% 54,393 37.8% Service 16,584 12.7% 14,484 10.1% Farming 1,445 1.1% 1,412 1.0% Median Years of School: 12.3 12.5 Median Household Income (1984): $23,360 $27,475 Housing: Owner/ Occupied 62,616 59.1% 66,945 63.9% Renter 40,405 38.1% 35,220 33.6% Vacant 2,900 2.7% 2,591 2.5% Total 105,921 104,756 Median Home Value: $87,627 $98,574

* Only the Los Angeles County portion of the district.

Source: Los Angeles Times Marketing Research

REGISTRATION TOTALS, PERCENTAGES

Registered voters:

33rd SD 54th AD 63rd AD Democrats 145,786 53.7% 90,522 65.3% 74,801 57.7% Republicans 104,091 38.3% 37,484 27% 45,155 34.8% Decline to State 16,675 6.1% 7,557 5.5% 7,485 5.8% Others 5,126 1.9% 3,069 2.2% 2,260 1.7% Total 271,678 138,632 129,701

Source: Secretary of State (as of March, 1987)