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CAMPAIGN ’88 : Parallels to ’76 Cited

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If you believe in historical parallels in politics, San Francisco Democratic consultant Paul Ambrosino argues that the 1988 Democratic presidential race looks a lot like 1976.

--”Mario Cuomo is Hubert Humphrey,” Ambrosino said. “Humphrey never got in the race in ’76 but said he would not rule out a draft at the convention.”

--Jackson is former Alabama Gov. George C. Wallace this time: “a populist message and a base of angry voters.”

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--Simon is the 1988 version of Arizona Rep. Morris K. Udall: “Both are thoughtful liberals, very popular with the press, everybody’s second choice.”

--Missouri Rep. Richard A. Gephardt is 1988’s Birch Bayh, the former senator from Indiana: “They’re the bland Midwesterners.”

--What about Massachusetts Gov. Michael S. Dukakis? “He’s Scoop Jackson,” argues Ambrosino, referring to the late Washington Sen. Henry M. Jackson. “Scoop had all the money but couldn’t win.”

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--Former Arizona Gov. Bruce Babbitt is the 1988 version of 1976’s Frank Church, the late senator from Idaho: “Very decent men who can’t catch on.”

That leaves Tennessee Sen. Albert Gore Jr., and it should be noted that Ambrosino just signed a contract to do campaign mail for Gore.

Not surprisingly, he sees Gore as Jimmy Carter, 1976’s winner: “Both are Southern centrists. One admitted lust in his heart, the other lust in his lungs,” Ambrosino said, referring to Gore’s use of marijuana 15 years ago.

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That still leaves former California Gov. Edmund G. Brown Jr., who got into the 1976 race late and beat Carter in several primaries.

“Hmmm, I wonder if Jerry will be Jerry again,” Ambrosino said.

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