Surveys Due Today : 2 Professors Take Pulse of County

The only certainty about Orange County is that it always changes--and changes faster than most other places, Mark Baldassare and James Doti say.

Today, the county’s residents will get their first look at the most comprehensive analysis ever of the most recent wave of those changes, as UC Irvine professor Baldassare and Chapman College professor Doti, the prophets of county opinion and economic health, release their annual surveys on the same day.

Doti’s 10th Chapman College Economic Forecast will reveal preliminary data on county wages, income, sales construction and housing trends, as well as a look at how the proposed Sensible Growth and Traffic Control Initiative might affect the county’s economy. Baldassare’s 6th Orange County Annual Survey is expected to deal with many opinions of residents on their own well-being and the future of the county.

A Growing Audience

Though some might disagree with the results, the two reports--both begun as research and class projects--have gained increasing respect and a growing audience.

“Everybody wants to know what’s happening next,” said Baldassare, professor of social ecology and sociology at UCI and founding director of the Orange County Annual Survey.

For $500 a question, almost anyone can buy a chance to ask almost anything on Baldassare’s telephone survey, which is put to 1,000 Orange County residents by student volunteers each September.

Twenty questions are repeated from previous years: How happy are you with your personal life? What do you think is the most important problem in our community? Are you satisfied with the freeways? How much does it cost to own or rent your home? How much money do you make every year?

Baldassare asks about 40 additional research questions of his own, and about 30 questions are usually reserved for paying sponsors, a common practice known as “caravaning,” other pollsters said. Both the questions and results are confidential on request, he said.

This year, Baldassare has three sponsors, the UCI Foundation, The Times and the Orange County Transportation Coalition--each paying $6,000--and 34 subscribers--mostly corporations paying $1,000 each.

This year’s survey focuses on growth and the quality of life, and many subscribers were interested in charitable giving, Baldassare says.

Doti’s economic forecast, by contrast, is based on computer-analyzed equations rather than surveys, he says.

Nearly 900 people--mostly from banking, brokering and real estate concerns--are expected to pay $30 each to hear Doti deliver his 1987 public forecast at 3 p.m. today at the Chapman College Memorial Auditorium.

The forecast started 10 years ago as a class project in a course in econometrics. The students’ results showed that--contrary to most predictions--Proposition 13, the tax-cutting initiative, would have a positive effect on Orange County’s economy, Doti says.

‘Share the Information’

“We thought we should share the information with the community,” says Doti, who is acting president of Chapman College.

Unlike other methods of making economic forecasts, Doti’s $50,000 econometric model uses 210 equations relating such variables as housing prices to mortgage rates and tax sales to employment.

Through such equations, he can predict what impact a 10% drop in construction might have on employment levels, a significant issue in connection with the proposed slow-growth initiative that he was asked to analyze for the county Environmental Management Agency.

Baldassare’s survey is also used as an analytical tool by some corporations and foundations. In that respect, says John Miltner, president of the UCI Foundation, it is a real bargain.

“You couldn’t buy market research for $6,000,” he says.

The survey has enabled the foundation to refine its list of potential donors, he says. Last year, the foundation determined through the survey that all segments of the community support the university--not just the affluent residents of Newport Beach and Irvine. This year, the foundation has zeroed in on charitable behavior of residents to obtain specifics for mailing lists of potential donors.

A previous survey also alerted university officials to a growing problem of racial tension countywide. As a result, the university held inter-racial awareness forums and coordinated with local police in the event of violence, he says.

Some subscribers, such as Saks Fifth Avenue and Nordstrom, are interested in consumer attitudes to prepare for their shopping seasons, Baldassare says.

The Orange County Annual Survey is the only “unbiased and neutral” barometer of county attitudes besides elections, says Christopher Townsend, director of public affairs for the Stein-Brief Group, land developers of Monarch Beach in Laguna Niguel.

And elections are not always reliable, he says. For example, while county residents reelect some legislators who favor offshore oil drilling, most of those surveyed in a past report said they opposed drilling.

Both surveys--Doti’s and Baldassare’s--have helped the Fluor Corp. formulate corporate policy on issues such as transportation and affordable housing, according to J. Robert Fluor II, vice president of corporate relations for Fluor, which employs 2,000 people at its Irvine facility.

Baldassare’s polling methods get high marks from veteran California pollster Mervin Field, who says asking questions in a poll is still considered an “art.”

He says Baldassare’s methodology is “solid” and that the numbers of people polled are “an impressive sample.”

Baldassare, who called his own methods “the Cadillac of polling,” says he is choosy about accepting sponsors and has turned down some of their questions.

“It would ruin the flow of the survey to ask about French fries after asking heavy questions about the federal deficit,” he says.

Over the years, Baldassare says, he has decided to urge private sponsors to go public with their results. He persuaded sponsors to release 25 questions asked last year about transportation. They will be made public next month as part of a special annual survey.

Has Private Contracts

Most of Doti’s forecasts are public, he says, although he also undertakes contract research for private businesses.

“We’re most proud of the fact that we’ve called every turning point in the Orange County business cycle by within one quarter since 1978,” says Doti, though he cautions that econometric forecasting is not foolproof.

One reason the model has been so effective, he says, is that county real estate personnel helped his data base by collecting information on home appraisals and other business information during times of rapid growth in the county.

“People had to collect data to figure out what was going on,” Doti says. “The county was growing so rapidly that rule of thumb--next year will be like last year--usually did not apply.”

Most of all, he says, his forecast project is still “mainly a student laboratory,” and he will continue the forecasts “as long as there is learning value to the students.”

He adds: “You can’t believe how excited they get when they estimate an equation--especially when they know it will receive attention, not just as a classroom exercise but with a significant impact on the community as evidenced by the attendance of so many distinguished people.

“It gives them more self-confidence and helps them develop skills when they go out in the business world.”

Baldassare says he has received offers from other universities to replicate his surveys in the Chicago, Houston and Dallas areas. He will continue the survey at least another year but is not certain how long he will continue after that.

He is also a consultant for the San Francisco Chronicle, the Orange County Register and Time Inc., he says.

Doti says he has no plans to stop his forecasts: “Even if the public were to lose interest, I can see us continuing to do this for the sake of the students.”