The Times Poll : Hart Quickly Emerges as Top Democrat Contender

Capitalizing on strong name identification, Gary Hart has tapped into a large pool of undecided voters and quickly emerged with eight percentage points more support than his nearest rival for the 1988 Democratic presidential nomination, the Los Angeles Times Poll has found.

A nationwide poll conducted Tuesday night, several hours after the former Colorado senator had surprisingly re-entered the presidential race, showed Hart being supported for his party’s nomination by 21% of the Democrats interviewed.

The Rev. Jesse Jackson, who had been the leader in most polls since Hart abandoned his campaign seven months ago, recorded 13% in this survey, virtually tied with Massachusetts Gov. Michael S. Dukakis, with 12%. Following closely were Illinois Sen. Paul Simon, 10%, and Tennessee Sen. Albert Gore Jr., 9%. Further back came Missouri Rep. Richard A. Gephardt and former Arizona Gov. Bruce Babbitt, each with 2%. The undecided totaled 31%.

The telephone survey of 294 Democrats who are eligible to participate in their states’ primaries and caucuses next year has a margin of error of 7%.

Only about half of Hart’s sudden support was generated at the expense of the other Democratic candidates. The other half (11%) came from Democratic voters who had been undecided prior to Hart’s re-entry into the contest. Dukakis and Gore each lost 3% of their supporters to Hart, Gephardt lost 2% and Simon and Jackson lost just 1% each.

Hart’s well-known name probably accounts for much of his current backing, Times Poll Director I.A. Lewis said. “A lot of people who hadn’t heard of most of the Democratic candidates the day before Hart got back in suddenly found they had heard of Hart and said they were with him,” Lewis theorized.

Hart’s high name identification was demonstrated when only 12% of the Democrats surveyed said they had not heard enough about the former senator to know whether they were “inclined” or “not inclined” to vote for him. Based on this measurement, Hart’s name identification is as high as Jackson’s.

In sharp contrast, the other Democratic candidates still are far less known. Roughly half of those interviewed in a separate survey the previous five nights said they did not know enough about Dukakis, Simon or Gore to answer the question.

Now the Bad News

But the bad news for Hart is that roughly half of the Democrats interviewed (49%) said they were “not inclined” to vote for him for President, and about three-fourths of the Republicans (74%) felt the same way. Jackson was the only candidate to score worse on this question, with 54% of the Democrats and 79% of the Republicans saying they were “not inclined” to vote for him.

By nearly 2 to 1 (62% to 33%), Democrats said they were “willing to forget” the damaging scandal that caused Hart to angrily quit his campaign last May--reports he had spent a night in his Washington town house with Miami model Donna Rice while his wife was at home in Colorado.

But the Democrats were evenly divided (46% to 46%) over whether Hart should have re-entered the race. And Republicans opposed his political rebirth by nearly 2 to 1 (61% to 32%). In contrast, people of all political persuasions last May told a Times poll, by 2 to 1, that Hart should not have given up his race.

Two Surveys Taken

The latest Times poll actually was divided into two surveys--one taken before Hart jumped back into the race on Tuesday, the other afterward. In the first telephone survey, spanning five nights, 1,826 adults were interviewed, including 580 Democrats and 532 Republicans eligible to take part in their states’ primaries and caucuses. For the total number, the margin of error is 3%; for the Democrat and Republican groups, 5% each.

The second survey, focusing on Hart, involved re-interviewing 719 people, including 294 Democrats and 291 Republicans. The margins of error are 5% for the total number and 7% each for the Democrats and Republicans.

Among Republicans in the first survey, Vice President George Bush enjoyed a 17 point lead over Kansas Sen. Bob Dole in the race for the GOP nomination. The standings were Bush, 37%; Dole, 20%; New York Rep. Jack Kemp, 7%; former television evangelist Pat Robertson, 6%; former Secretary of State Alexander M. Haig Jr., 5%; and former Delaware Gov. Pierre S. (Pete) du Pont IV, 2%. There were 23% undecided.

Hypothetical Contests

In hypothetical general election match-ups, Bush ran best against Jackson, beating the civil rights leader by 3 to 1, 60% to 18%. Even Democrats sided with Bush over Jackson by 4 to 3.

But Hart and Dukakis also lost to Bush by whopping ratios of roughly 2 to 1--Hart by 61% to 33% and Dukakis by 49% to 23%. Unlike Jackson, however, Hart received the support of Democrats--by roughly 8 to 5--and Dukakis managed only to break even among members of his party in the simulated contest.

Further evidence of Jackson’s “negatives”--and an example of why he is generally believed to be unelectable--is that he far and away was the candidate people said would be the hardest for them personally to vote for. Of all the Democratic candidates, he was chosen “most difficult to support” by 35% of the Democrats and 45% of the Republicans.

Hart was named “most difficult to support” by 12% of the Democrats and 17% of the Republicans. No other Democrat was picked by more than 5%.

Potential Difficulties

Another indication of Hart’s potential difficulties as Americans begin to think more about the 1988 election was found in responses to a question asking “what is the single most important quality” looked for in choosing a presidential candidate?

Democrats and Republicans alike cited “integrity” as the “most important quality,” although Democrats gave equal rating to “stands on issues.” Also ranking high were experience, leadership and judgment. Among the least important qualities, however, were “ability to communicate” and “fresh young ideas.”

But asked to assess Hart’s “most important quality,” integrity ranked at the bottom of the list, along with judgment and leadership--the very things voters are looking for. Hart’s main strength was his “stands on issues,” a quality voters do seek. But two other areas where voters perceived Hart to be strong--communication skills and “fresh ideas”-- are assets that people do not consider very important.

By roughly 5 to 4, Democrats disagreed with the notion that the presidential candidates have avoided discussing new ideas, a reason cited by Hart for re-entering the race.

Asked why they thought Hart changed his mind and got back into the campaign, Democrats most often gave this response: “Considering the competition, he thinks he can still win.”

THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE DEMOCRATS

Asked of Democrats eligible to vote: If the election were held today, who would you vote for?

Gary Hart 21%

Jesse Jackson 13%

Michael Dukakis 12%

Paul Simon 10%

Al Gore 9%

Richard Gephardt 2%

Bruce Babbitt 2%

No opinion 31%

REPUBLICANS

Asked of Republicans eligible to vote: If the election were held today, who would you vote for?

George Bush 37%

Bob Dole 20%

Jack Kemp 7%

Pat Robertson 6%

Alexander Haig 5%

Pierre du Pont 2%

No opinion 23%

Source: Los Angeles Times Poll