Soviet Economist Disputes Gorbachev’s Growth Plan

A Soviet economist Tuesday challenged the basic theory behind Soviet leader Mikhail S. Gorbachev’s plan to revitalize the economy, arguing that it will provide only meager benefits for the consumer even if it succeeds.

Writing in the daily Socialist Industry, an organ of the Central Committee of the Communist Party, economist Vasily Selutin said that raising the economic growth rate from 4% to 5% a year would raise the income of the average wage earner by only 18 rubles a year, a little more than $30 at the official rate of exchange.

Selutin made no criticism of Gorbachev by name, but he attacked the economic theories of Abel G. Aganbegyan, a chief adviser to Gorbachev. He did challenge Gorbachev’s oft-repeated view that an increase in the economic growth rate will improve the living standard of every Soviet worker.

One of Many Such Articles

Selutin’s article was the most recent in a number of such articles that have appeared in the party-controlled press, either expressing skepticism about Gorbachev’s program of perestroika-- economic restructuring--or warning that resistance to the program is on the rise.

Selutin said the basic problem is that too much of the national income is devoted to investment and savings rather than consumption.

According to Aganbegyan, 75% of Soviet production goes to consumption and the remaining 25% to capital goods. But Selutin challenged these figures. He argued that about 40% goes into capital investment and 60% to consumption.

On Wartime Footing

This, he said, means that the Soviet Union is practically on a wartime footing. In wartime, governments try to limit spending on consumer products and channel resources into the industrial sector.

“So high a share of capital investment corresponds essentially to wartime economic management,” Selutin said. “Every year the share of goods intended for consumption shrinks as compared to capital goods.”

Without a sharp shift in the economy toward the consumer sector, he said, the standard of living will show little improvement even if the growth rate increases.

Aganbegyan and his associates have argued that living standards will increase if the growth rate rises to 5%, compared to an average of 3% during the so-called years of stagnation under the late Soviet leader Leonid I. Brezhnev.

No Improvement Seen

The present level is 4%, but Selutin argues that even if the 5% level is achieved, it will not really improve the ordinary worker’s life.

“Very simple calculations show,” he said, “that the final result will amount to 1.5 rubles of additional income per month for the average wage earner,” indicating an increase of 18 rubles a year.