Bergeson’s Dilemma : Caught in ‘Tug of War,’ She’ll Announce Monday Whether to Give Up Her Status in Sacramento to Run for Badham Seat

All eyes in the Orange County political establishment are on state Sen. Marian Bergeson (R-Newport Beach) this weekend as she wrestles with whether she wants to succeed Rep. Robert E. Badham (R-Newport Beach) in the 40th Congressional District.

“It’s really tough. I’m still really not certain what I want to do,” Bergeson said Friday. “I feel one minute this is an opportunity I should not pass up. . . . On the other hand, I look at the responsibilities and the involvement that I’ve had and will continue to have in the Senate. . . .

“It’s that tug of war.”

She said she will announce her decision Monday morning.

Until then, everyone is waiting.

“There are a whole bunch of people in a holding pattern until Marian makes the decision what she’s going to do,” said Jack Flanigan, director of political affairs at the Irvine Co.

If Bergeson runs for Badham’s seat, the race to succeed her in the state Senate will then begin. And if the candidates for her seat included members of the Assembly, their seats would be up for grabs.

On the other hand, if Bergeson does not run for Congress, there will be a spirited, perhaps even bloody, Republican primary for Badham’s seat. The district, in which 59% of the registered voters are Republicans, is one of the strongest GOP districts in the nation. Winning the Republican nomination is tantamount to winning the general election.

Bergeson, 60, knows that Badham’s district is hers if she wants it. That is clear to everyone except a few wishful candidates who would like to believe she might be beatable.

Orange County Republican Chairman Thomas A. Fuentes said that polls taken a year ago in Bergeson’s Senate district, which includes most of the 40th Congressional District, “showed that Marian Bergeson is the most popular elected official in coastal Orange County.”

Bergeson also enjoys broad support in segments of the county’s business community, where many view her as their primary point person on issues of importance in Sacramento.

“If Marian decides she is a candidate . . . the Irvine Co. will support her candidacy,” Flanigan said. “She has a long history of really terrific public service.”

Bergeson and her husband, Garth, have four grown children, and she said she has already had family conferences on the question of her candidacy. She characterized her children’s responses as “sort of like, ‘Mom, what do you want to do? This should be your decision. We’ll abide by it.’ ”

As for her husband, a retired McDonnell-Douglas executive, Bergeson said that “he’s not particularly enthralled with the idea of moving to Washington.”

One often-mentioned drawback to Bergeson’s candidacy is her age. There are many who say that even if she served in Congress for several two-year terms, she would be at retirement age before she broke through the strict seniority system in Washington to get better committee assignments, which is the key to wielding power on Capitol Hill.

Rep. Ron C. Packard (R-Carlsbad) pointed out that Bergeson is “at the peak of her political career in Sacramento.”

“To leave that and go back to become a freshman congressman, which is about as low as you can get, may not be attractive to her,” said Packard, who said he has refrained from calling Bergeson about the race because he thinks that it is her decision. “Unfortunately, it’s very difficult . . . the partisanship, the seniority system, the selection process of getting on good committees.” But Bergeson worked her way up relatively quickly in Sacramento, and she thinks she can do the same in Washington. She said she wants to see “what kind of visibility I can stir up . . . from pretty much a point of anonymity” in Washington.

In Sacramento, she demonstrated that she can successfully negotiate with Democrats, who control the Legislature as well as both houses of Congress. Indeed, many of the Democrats she has dealt with over the years in her former role as an assemblywoman, including former Assemblymen Howard Berman of Panorama City, Mel Levine of Santa Monica and Richard H. Lehman of Fresno, are now in Washington.

In the meantime, the handicapping over whether Bergeson will run will continue up to the moment of her announcement.

One Bergeson friend who talks with her frequently said: “This morning I thought there is no way she’s going to do this. This afternoon, I thought, well. . . .”

“I would lay book (that she runs), but only on even odds,” former Assemblyman Ron Cordova said.

The political consultants eyeing the congressional and other races that could develop in the wake of Badham’s surprise announcement last week that he will not run this year look on the race as an unexpected banquet.

“I feel like a wolf just waiting for Goldilocks to walk to grandma’s house,” one consultant said, thinking ahead to one of the potential contests.

Badham’s 1986 challenger, Newport Beach business consultant Nathan Rosenberg, 35, is expected to give Bergeson her most serious challenge if she runs. Rosenberg said he has a head start on fund-raising, with $200,000 in hand and a $1,000-a-person fund-raiser scheduled for Jan. 27.

But Fuentes said that if Bergeson stakes her claim to a seat in Congress, the “Dutch uncles” of the county’s Republican Party will take Rosenberg aside for “some pretty sober talk.” Rosenberg is planning a survey by GOP pollster Lance Tarrance to guide him in the race.

Bergeson has a $200,000 campaign fund, but only part of it could be used in a federal race because state law and federal law differ on campaign contributions. She is planning a $250-a-person fund-raiser Feb. 10.

The other leading potential candidates--Orange County Supervisor Roger R. Stanton, Assemblyman Gil Ferguson (R-Newport Beach) and Irvine City Councilman C. David Baker--probably will not run if Bergeson does. All would have to give up their offices to enter the race.

A key supporter of the 34-year-old Baker, industrialist Arnold Beckman, sent a letter to 2,500 opinion leaders this weekend endorsing Bergeson if she runs but asking for support for Baker if she does not. Baker says he has $250,000 in pledges if he enters the race and Bergeson does not.

Other candidates may include Charles S. Devore, 25, a Pentagon liaison to the National Security Council, State Department and Congress, and Tustin City Councilman John Kelly, 25. C. Christopher Cox, 35, a White House counsel who was with the law firm of Latham & Watkins in Orange County for eight years, has expressed interest in the race but probably will not run if Bergeson does.

The 40th Congressional District includes Fountain Valley, Costa Mesa, Newport Beach, Irvine, Laguna Beach, Laguna Hills, Laguna Niguel, El Toro and parts of Huntington Beach, Santa Ana and Tustin.