Iowa’s Day of Decision: Dole,Gephardt in Lead : GOP Strategists Act to Shape Expectations

As the Republican presidential campaign grinds to a climax here in Iowa, rival strategists are waging a two-front war.

On one front they are rallying support for the first big candidate showdown of 1988 in today’s precinct caucuses. On the other they are striving to shape the expectations, large and small, that will bear heavily on the future course of the campaign.

By almost every measurement of public opinion, Senate Republican leader Bob Dole holds a substantial lead of 10 points or so over Vice President George Bush going into the caucuses.

With the stakes mounting and tempers shortening, the battle took on an ugly tone in the closing days, stemming from allegations that Dole had tried to use his influence to help an aide get a government contract.

And some professionals speculated that the net result of the harsh exchanges between the Bush and Dole camps might be to chill the interest of potential supporters of both, paving the way for a strong finish by former television evangelist Pat Robertson. His backers, a Des Moines Register poll released here Sunday showed, are more committed than those of any other candidate.

The same poll, like other previous surveys, showed Robertson, New York Rep. Jack Kemp and former Delaware Gov. Pierre S. (Pete) du Pont IV locked in a desperate battle for third place, and possibly survival in the GOP race. But no one in any of the rival camps here would rule out the possibility that Robertson might move up to challenge the leaders.

“Robertson could finish first here or he could finish fourth,” said Richard Bond, Bush’s national political director.

Republicans outside the Robertson campaign spoke of an “invisible army” of Robertson supporters, made up of “FDRs”--former Democrats for Robertson--whose strength had not shown up in the polls. But it was clear that Robertson was also getting backing from traditional Republican ranks.

‘Same Goals as Reagan’

“I’m what the press calls a right-wing fundamentalist,” said Michael Canady, a Des Moines business executive and longtime Reagan backer who has volunteered to work for the Robertson forces. “I see Robertson as having the same kinds of goals as Reagan but as a better communicator and stronger personality.”

But even as Robertson and his rivals pressed their last-minute efforts to improve their standings, the contest of expectations was being waged on another, mainly rhetorical level.

In this contest, whether a candidate wins or loses is decided not just by the vote totals accrued in the skirmishes in the 2,487 caucuses around the state, but on how these numbers stack up against predictions for his performance. The Republicans will cast private ballots in a straw poll at the beginning of the 7 p.m. caucuses, and the 37 delegates (1.6% of the total at the GOP convention) will be chosen after a lengthy process ending in June.

“The expected is never of significant benefit,” said New Hampshire Gov. John H. Sununu, who barnstormed here last week on behalf of Vice President Bush. “The unexpected alone has enhanced value.”

Sununu and other Bush partisans are determined to make that maxim apply here in Iowa, where Bush’s front-runner status almost everywhere else in the nation is belied by the surveys showing him behind Dole here. Of prime concern is the order of battle in Sununu’s own state of New Hampshire, which holds the nation’s first presidential primary Feb. 16, just eight days after the Iowa contest.

Hopes to Close Gap

Dole trails Bush by a goodly margin in polls in New Hampshire right now, but Dole’s strategists are hoping that a victory for him in Iowa can close that gap, if not put him ahead. Contended David Keene, a senior Dole consultant: “We feel that if we win Iowa, that’s going to make eight to 14 points difference in New Hampshire.”

But Peter Teeley, Bush’s communications director, argues that “Dole has been leading Bush in Iowa since November of 1986,” and thus anything less than a “landslide” for Dole in Iowa won’t help Dole’s New Hampshire campaign one bit.

Further seeking to discount the significance of a possible Dole victory here, Bush aides contend that the state is a second home to the Kansas senator, because it is near his native state.

The answering argument from the Dole camp recalls Bush’s success here in the 1980 precinct caucuses, when he scored a stunning upset victory over Ronald Reagan that paved his way to the vice presidency. “If this is Bob Dole’s state, how come it was this state that catapulted George Bush into the national political limelight,” demanded Tom Synhorst, Dole’s Iowa campaign manager. “It’s eight years later, and he’s had plenty of chances to exploit that.”

Besides, Synhorst claims that the Dole campaign’s own polls show their candidate’s lead to be smaller than the public polls indicate. “It’s a very tight race,” he said.

Robertson’s Hidden Strength

In addition to waging psychological warfare against each other, the Bush and Dole forces have combined to make Robertson a target in their effort to manipulate expectations. Since Robertson surprised them both by winning a much-heralded straw poll in nearby Ames last September, the Bush and Dole campaigns have been talking ominously about Robertson’s hidden strength in the state, even suggesting that he might come in first in the precinct caucuses.

“Bush and Dole are putting up a huge smoke screen to say Robertson will be a big factor here to cover their own behinds,” said Hugh Winebrenner, a Drake University political scientist and author of “The Iowa Precinct Caucuses: Making of a Media Event.”

The campaign here has much in common with the battle for the GOP nomination elsewhere in the nation: Bush and Dole are battling for first place, both bidding for support from the Republican mainstream with arguments that have more to do with their personal qualifications and inclinations than with issues and ideology.

“The overriding issue here is the issue of leadership,” said Dole staffer Synhorst.

Bush’s partisans, for their part, boast of Bush’s broad sweep of experience in top government posts and particularly of his role as “co-pilot” in the Reagan presidency, all of which they claim makes him uniquely suited for the Oval Office.

‘Running for President’

“George Bush is not running for secretary of agriculture or national pastor,” said Bond. “He’s running for President of the United States.”

It is Dole’s first-place status here that sets Iowa apart. Dole’s forces have worked hard to exploit the regional and cultural affinity felt for a fellow Midwesterner. “He’s one of us”--the punch line from one of his television commercials--sums up the message of his candidacy for many Iowans.

This commonality, together with his experience as Senate GOP leader, has helped Dole make inroads among state party leaders, including some who supported Bush when he made his run against Reagan in 1980.

“I certainly don’t dislike George Bush,” said Robert Lounsberry, former state secretary of agriculture, who backed Bush’s long-shot candidacy eight years ago. “He’s been loyal to the President, and that’s fine. But Dole has a broad background of experience too, and I think he has more spine, or intestinal fortitude.”

Support from local party leaders has helped bolster Dole’s organization, a critical factor in getting out supporters in a caucus state such as Iowa. Particularly helpful in this regard has been the assistance of the state’s senior senator, Charles E. Grassley. In addition to being the most popular Republican in the state, Grassley has a widely admired organization that Dole strategists are counting on heavily to perform tonight.

Allegations Cast Shadow

The allegations about his involvement in trying to help a former aide get a Small Business Administration contract have cast a shadow of uncertainty over Dole’s prospects. The Des Moines Register, which endorsed his candidacy, has scolded him for not clearing the matter up. But some Dole strategists think the Bush campaign’s heavy-handed criticism of Dole may have turned the issue into a plus for him by angering and thus energizing his supporters.

The Bush campaign here has been operating under a handicap, namely President Reagan. Reagan, to whom Bush’s political fate is inextricably linked, isn’t nearly as popular here as he is among Republicans elsewhere.

“There is discontent with Reagan’s farm and foreign policy,” said Bond, Bush’s national political director. In addition, Bond says, the general perception of Reagan’s leadership qualities is not as favorable among Iowa Republicans as it is among other Republicans.

In theory, Bush ought to be able to exploit the base of support he developed in 1980. But that has turned out to be no easy task. One big reason, as former Republican National Chairman Mary Louise Smith, a longtime Bush supporter, points out, is that “in 1980, an awful lot of Bush support was from people who were not for Reagan.”

In that campaign, Bush depicted himself as the moderate Republican’s alternative to Reagan; now he presents himself as Reagan’s logical heir. That’s been too sharp a U-turn for many former Bush supporters. No wonder, as Smith says, “the enthusiasm level dropped” among Bush’s early supporters when his 1988 candidacy got under way.

But as the day of decision neared, “some of the people who were for Bush early are coming home,” Smith said. “They never really dropped George, and they see him as more qualified for the presidency than Dole.”

Iran-Contra Impact

Bush’s candidacy is also troubled by questions about his role in the Iran-Contra affair. Bush’s strategists concede that is a problem, but no one knows how much impact, if any, this affair will have on the vote. And it has been hard for Dole to press the issue without seeming to be exploiting the misfortunes of the Reagan Administration for his own political benefit.

While most attention focuses on the highly personalized contest between Dole and Bush for the Republican mainstream, three underdog candidates, Kemp, Robertson and Du Pont, are each seeking to capture the loyalty of ideologically oriented conservatives.

The sixth GOP candidate, former Secretary of State Alexander M. Haig Jr., is not a factor here, having shut down his state headquarters last fall in order to concentrate his efforts in New Hampshire.

Here is a brief glimpse at the campaigns of the three underdogs:

Robertson--Judging from his television commercials, Robertson is trying to broaden his appeal here beyond the Christian right by stressing his interest in such non-religious areas as economics and tax policy. But no one doubts that the foundation of his support is among evangelical Christians, who number about 75,000 in Iowa, according to Kerry Moody, a Robertson aide.

Since GOP officials expect caucus turnout to exceed the record 106,000 who showed up in 1980, Robertson needs to get about one-third of the evangelicals, or about 25,000, to attend the caucuses to have a significant impact.

Will Monitor Churches

Robertson’s foes expect him to use the evangelical churches in the state as the springboard for his effort. Douglas Weed, the Bush campaign’s liaison to religious groups, said that Bush supporters will be monitoring about 80 churches to guard against efforts by Robertson adherents to “turn the churches into campaign headquarters.”

Kemp--The New York congressman and his aides proudly claim that they have placed far more stress on issues than have Bush and Dole. “We’ve got a message and they haven’t,” said Scott Reed, Kemp’s state coordinator.

Kemp’s message is built around promises to balance the budget without raising taxes, to oppose abortion and to protect Social Security. On Social Security, Kemp reminds older voters here of his successful opposition to the cut in cost-of-living adjustments for beneficiaries supported by Dole and Bush.

Stronger in New Hampshire

Polls here show Kemp and Robertson in a dead heat for third place while New Hampshire surveys suggest that Kemp’s prospects are brighter there. But the question is whether he will be in a position to take advantage of his potential strength in New Hampshire if he finishes behind Robertson in Iowa.

Du Pont--Like Kemp, Du Pont makes much of his emphasis on issues. He has offered a five-point program, including phasing out farm subsidies, instituting educational vouchers, drug testing for teen-agers and reforms in welfare and Social Security.

He hopes to attract a different sort of voter. “Bush and Dole get a lot of organization Republicans,” said Dennis Rochford, Du Pont’s state coordinator. “We’re going to attract people who don’t ordinarily go to caucuses. We’ve got the best candidate with the clearest, crispest message.”

Du Pont’s objective, said Rochford, is to “beat Kemp.” If he can do that he can go on to New Hampshire and exploit his endorsement by the Manchester Union Leader.