Politics 88 : Dole, Gephardt Win; Bush Third : Simon Is Iowa Runner-Up on Democrat Side

Missouri Rep. Richard A. Gephardt won the Iowa Democratic presidential caucus Monday, but Sen. Paul Simon of Illinois and Massachusetts Gov. Michael S. Dukakis finished close behind, leaving the Democratic race still muddled heading into the New Hampshire primary next Tuesday.

With 70% of precincts reporting in a record turnout, Gephardt had 28% of the vote, followed by Simon with 24% and Dukakis with 21%.

The other four candidates trailed far behind, with the Rev. Jesse Jackson finishing a surprising fourth by polling 11% of the votes, even though it was estimated that blacks made up only 2% of those attending the caucuses.

Hart Virtually Eliminated

The outcome virtually eliminated former Arizona Gov. Bruce Babbitt and former Colorado Sen. Gary Hart as serious contenders, although both declared that they would remain in the race.

Babbitt, who had campaigned extensively in Iowa since 1986, finished fifth, with 9%. And Hart, who had re-entered the race in December after withdrawing last April in the wake of reports of his involvement with a Miami model, drew only 1%. Six percent were uncommitted.

Tennessee Sen. Albert Gore Jr., who abandoned the Iowa race after labeling it “an arcane procedure that produces crazy results,” finished last but remains a contender based on his strategy of concentrating his efforts on the March 8 Super Tuesday schedule of 20 primaries and caucuses, mostly in the South.

However, Gephardt’s victory, in addition to giving his own campaign a shot in the arm heading into New Hampshire, probably means trouble for Gore and his Super Tuesday strategy because the Missouri congressman and Gore appeal to many of the same conservative voters in the South.

Gephardt’s victory was shadowed in part by the process of reporting results, in which a consortium of news organizations was able to get numbers from only about 70% of the Iowa Democratic precincts. However, Democratic Party projections of Gephardt’s ultimate delegate strength underlined his apparent victory in the raw vote.

Blames Foreign Competitors

Gephardt strategists credited their victory to Gephardt’s increasingly strong appeal to farmers, union workers and the elderly, in which he stressed that their problems were a creation of economic competitors abroad and an insensitive government in Washington.

William Carrick, Gephardt’s campaign manager, said his candidate “gutted out the tough times,” coming from behind on the strength of a series of television ads that many analysts credited with crystallizing Gephardt’s populist themes.

Gephardt must now move on to New Hampshire, where his message so far has been less well received. Prior to the Iowa vote, he ranked well down in the polls there. For one thing, he has advocated an oil import fee to help reduce the budget deficit and encourage greater energy independence, but the fee is not popular in import-dependent New England.

Gephardt’s victory was diminished not only by Simon’s close second-place finish but by the fact that Dukakis, a heavy favorite in New Hampshire and the leading fund-raiser among the Democrats, finished such a close third.

Nevertheless, a victory such as Gephardt’s has transformed Democratic candidates into strong contenders and eventual nominees in the past. And the surge of media attention Gephardt already is receiving in the wake of his victory here could catapult him into a strong showing in New Hampshire.

It’s Only Just Begun’

“We’ve won the first battle, but the struggle does not end here,” Gephardt said. “It’s only just begun.”

When introduced at a downtown hotel to the theme from “Rocky,” the five-term congressman said: “I ask for your help not just to win an election. I ask for your help to change America and give it back its soul.”

The stakes were exceptionally high in the Iowa caucuses for both Gephardt and Simon, and a poor showing here for either would have been viewed as a serious, if not fatal, blow to their campaigns.

Gephardt, who considered Iowa so crucial he had pulled practically all of his campaign staff members out of other states and concentrated their efforts in Iowa for the final push, had hoped for a clear-cut victory that would have knocked Simon out of the race and left Gephardt as the only Midwesterner going into New Hampshire, where Dukakis has held overwhelming leads in public opinion polls.

Simon, who had said he would withdraw from the race if he failed to either win or finish a close second in Iowa, apparently felt he was now in a position to mount a strong challenge in New Hampshire, where polls have shown him running second to Dukakis, although far behind the governor.

“What is clear,” said Simon in a Cable News Network interview, “is that, for someone who got 1% in the first Des Moines Register poll after I announced, we’ve moved into a strong second position and we’re going into New Hampshire with two strong candidates.”

To Keep Campaign Themes

Simon vowed not to change the central themes of his candidacy, which have drawn on his non-packaged appearance and his commitment to what he refers to as “old-fashioned” Democratic values, including new social programs. However, his commitment to a balanced budget has caused him problems in explaining how he would accomplish both goals.

Although Dukakis had at one time held a lead in Iowa polls and had hoped for a better finish, he said he thought he had done quite well considering that he had come in close behind two candidates who were from neighboring states.

“I guess I’ve won the bronze tonight, and I’ll be going for the gold in New Hampshire next week,” Dukakis said. “I came to Iowa a virtual unknown, and here I am in the thick of this race and pushing hard and climbing up the back of a couple of guys who are next-door neighbors.”

Dukakis’ stressing of managerial competence, based on the performance of the Massachusetts economy, has been matched in recent weeks with hard-hitting ads denouncing U.S. aid to the Nicaraguan Contras and calls for stepped-up programs to help the homeless.

Gephardt and Simon both played up their Midwestern and farm-state backgrounds here, assuring Iowans that they understood their problems because they were from neighboring states.

On to New Hampshire

All of the Democratic candidates turned their attention to New Hampshire as soon as the Iowa caucuses ended, and most of them were scheduled to be in New Hampshire today for a final campaign push.

A Boston Globe poll completed last Wednesday showed Dukakis leading the pack in New Hampshire, with 38%, followed by Simon, with 17%; Hart, 11%; Gephardt, 9%; Jackson, 7%, and Babbitt and Gore, 6% each, with 6% undecided.

In a campaign that was the most extensive and expensive for Democrats in the history of the Iowa caucuses, Gephardt spent more time and money that any other Democratic candidate. He campaigned in the state for 114 days and spent so much money on television ads in the closing days that the Simon campaign accused him of violating federal election spending limits and urged him to withdraw his ads over the final weekend. A Gephardt spokesman rejected the request and labeled it ridiculous.

Hart, who was leading the Democratic field in Iowa polls with about 60% support when he withdrew from the race last April, admitted Monday night that he was disappointed by his showing here but professed not to be discouraged.

“I’m back in the role of the underdog, a role I cherish,” he said in New Hampshire, where he already has resumed campaigning.

Babbitt to Continue On

Babbitt conceded that his showing “was not as great as I would have liked but said: “I have an important message, and I’m going to go on.”

“I never had any illusions when I got into this race,” said Babbitt, who has ranked at or near the back of the Democratic pack despite intensive campaigning beginning in 1986.

Looking at some of the long-faced supporters around him at his Des Moines hotel, Babbitt said: “Cheer up. This is not a wake.”

Exit polling at the Iowa caucuses by the Los Angeles Times showed that both Gephardt and Simon drew heavy support from voters who were most dissatisfied with the Reagan Administration.

And both of the front-runners, in their final campaigning, played to a strong strain of anti-Reaganism in Iowa.

Simon spoke in tougher tones than in past campaigning and promised sweeping changes if he is elected President.

“This Administration has been out to lunch,” he declared. “In January, 1989, the lunch period is over, and we’re going to work for working Americans.”

Gephardt, stressing a position popular with Iowa Democrats, assailed the Reagan Administration for its support of the Nicaragua Contras and hammered away at the runaway budget deficits of the Administration.

A Times Mirror poll released last week showed that Gore would lose the most if Gephardt won Iowa. The poll showed that older, union-oriented, socially conservative Democrats who make up one-third of Southern Democrats would be drawn to Gephardt. That is the kind of bedrock Democratic constituency that holds the kind of philosophical positions most often espoused by Gephardt and Gore.

THE IOWA VOTE Republicans Results of straw poll taken at beginning of caucuses.

98% of precincts reporting.

Bob Dole 40,627 37% Pat Robertson 26,711 25% George Bush 20,160 19% Jack Kemp 12,065 11% Pierre du Pont 7,970 7% Alexander Haig 412 --% No Preference 782 1%

Delegates to the National GOP convention will be selected at a series of party meetings in the spring in a process largely unrelated to the straw ballot.

Democrats Results of raw vote count taken at beginning of caucuses.

70% of precincts reporting.

Richard Gephardt 24,116 28% Paul Simon 21,397 24% Michael Dukakis 18,036 21% Jesse Jackson 9,764 11% Bruce Babbitt 8,043 9% Gary Hart 895 1% Al Gore 192 --% Uncommitted 5,429 6%

Projection of national delegates won in the Iowa caucuses. Fifty-two of the state’s 58 delegates will be selected during caucus process. Candidates who did not receive at least 15% support in a precinct were eliminated.

Richard Gephardt 21 Paul Simon 17 Michael Dukakis 12 Bruce Babbitt 0 Jesse Jackson 0 Gary Hart 0 Al Gore 0 Uncommitted 2

Source: News Election Service, AP