Gorbachev’s Afghan Timetable Alters Climate for Summit

Soviet leader Mikhail S. Gorbachev’s announcement that the Soviet Union is prepared to begin withdrawing its troops from Afghanistan on May 15 alters the climate for the next summit meeting between Gorbachev and President Reagan in Moscow.

The two leaders are tentatively scheduled to meet again in late May or early June. If the Soviet Union keeps to the timetable Gorbachev spoke about, that action would greatly reduce any chance that U.S.-Soviet arms control negotiations at the next summit would in some way be linked to Afghan issues.

Still, the Reagan Administration reacted coolly to the new Soviet announcement. While acknowledging that Gorbachev’s statement on the troop withdrawal contained new elements, Administration officials said that they would have to wait to see the details and to hear the reactions of the Pakistan government and Afghan refugees.

“It sounds like a positive step, and we hope it is, but we need to see the fine print. We’ve got to know what it means,” White House spokesman Marlin Fitzwater told reporters aboard Air Force One as President Reagan flew to North Carolina for a speech. “Sometimes, these offers are accompanied by conditions and we need to know what those conditions are.”

One State Department official, speaking on condition that he not be named, said the Soviet timetable for withdrawal raises new problems for American policy-makers, such as whether to continue supporting the Afghan resistance and whether to insist that the current Afghan government be replaced quickly, while the Soviet troops are still leaving.

“What it really comes down to now is whether we want to rub their (the Soviets’) noses in it or not,” this official said. “Are we going to allow them to make a graceful exit, as they did for us, really, in Vietnam? Will we allow the Afghan government some time or do we want to have them watch the (Afghan) government crumble as their troops are leaving?”

On Monday, Gorbachev conditioned his timetable for the beginning of a Soviet pullout on the successful conclusion by March 15 of negotiations between Pakistan and the Soviet-backed Afghan regime for a settlement of the 8-year-old civil war.

Pakistan Has Key Role

Pakistan’s leading role in those negotiations, being held in Geneva under U.N. sponsorship, arises from its position as home for millions of Afghan refugees as well as the rear base for U.S.-backed Afghan rebels fighting in Afghanistan.

The Pakistan government had no official comment Monday on Gorbachev’s announcement. But a Pakistani official in Washington characterized the Soviet action as “positive” and said it should pave the way for a final settlement in Geneva by March 15.

“The only issue that was outstanding in Geneva was the question of a mutually acceptable timetable for a withdrawal of troops,” the Pakistani official said. Pakistan and the Kabul regime have already reached agreement on provisions calling for the return of refugees from Pakistan to Afghanistan and on non-interference in each other’s affairs.

U.S. officials were more guarded in their comments.

“We want to make sure that the whole package (of Soviet proposals) is acceptable, not just to us, but to the moujahedeen (Afghan rebels), who have to live with it, and to the Pakistanis,” one State Department official said. He noted that in the past, Pakistan has sought a Soviet pullout over a period of seven months, not 10.

One important policy question facing the United States is whether, or at what time, to cut off the U.S. military and financial support for the Afghan rebels.

In a press conference on Jan. 7, Secretary of State George P. Shultz said that the United States would continue to provide military equipment to the Afghan rebels at least until it is clear that the Soviets had begun an irreversible pullout of troops.

“As withdrawal proceeds and as it takes place--we hope in a peaceful atmosphere--then you don’t have the need for that continued support and it would cease,” Shultz said.

He also said that the United States wants the Soviet withdrawal to be “front-end loaded”--that is, for a larger proportion of the 115,000 troops to be removed from Afghanistan in the early stages of the withdrawal than at the end.

Gorbachev met this American condition in his statement Monday. “That, too, could be done,” the Soviet leader said. “The Afghan leadership and we agree to it.”