Can GOP Handle Its Iowa Surprise? : Conservatives Fear a Bork-Type Battle While Democrats Need Secret Ballot

The Republican result in Iowa was unexpected, and therefore interesting. But conservatives with whom I have spoken are filled with foreboding about the result.

It’s not that they dislike former television evangelist Pat Robertson, or that they will not vote for him. But they can foresee the no-holds-barred, Bork-style onslaught that his candidacy will no doubt soon arouse. Newsweek can devote an article (this week) to the assistance given by black churches to the Rev. Jesse Jackson’s campaign without so much as mentioning “church and state.” It will be surprising if Robertson meets with a similar toleration.

George Bush has been “running” for President for more than eight years, seven of them as vice president. Now he has lost two caucuses (Iowa and Hawaii) to a never-elected preacher and avoided defeat in a third (Michigan) only with the assistance of lawsuits and midstream rule changes. Bush might soon be the first sitting vice president in this century to be denied his party’s nomination.

Most conservatives with whom I spoke before Iowa nonetheless said that they preferred Bush to Kansas Sen. Bob Dole, if not by much. Bush may not be inspiring, they concede. His aspiration to become the “education President” evokes derision. But he is eager to please. No more “voodoo economics” back talk from him! He’s on board for a capital-gains tax cut.

By contrast, Dole sometimes seems hostile to conservative ideas. He jokes of the busload of supply-side economists that went over a cliff (the good news) with two empty seats (the bad news). Dole’s somber vision of America, his propensity to anger, his desire to administer “bitter medicine” to the people, his ambiguous promise to “deal with deficits” (raise taxes?) will not wear well in the campaign.

Conservative hopes have to a large extent been vested in former Delaware Gov. Pierre S. (Pete) du Pont IV and Rep. Jack Kemp of New York. But Du Pont seems finished, and Kemp came in fourth. The impeding Republican tragedy is that Kemp may well be the party’s most electable candidate, but to date has not caught fire with the party rank-and-file. If he does not make a strong showing in New Hampshire, he is surely through. Perhaps he will still surprise us.

The Democratic result in Iowa conformed closely to the most recent polls. Caucus voting for Democrats in Iowa is a public matter--and therefore open to peer scrutiny. (It’s the same way as if a pollster calls your home. Your preference is not secret because it is known to the pollster.) Few surprises are to be expected from such a procedure. Who will stand up for Gary Hart with friends and neighbors watching? Nonetheless, I imagine that Hart will not survive New Hampshire.

Former Arizona Gov. Bruce Babbitt bicycled around Iowa promising to raise our taxes, and was soundly repudiated. In the debates he stood up, and in the caucuses he was shot down--a satisfying conclusion. Tennessee Sen. Albert Gore Jr. no doubt hurt himself by skirting Iowa, thereby allowing (most probably) Rep. Richard Gephardt of Missouri to pick up his centrist support. Jesse Jackson did well, considering the small black population of the state. He lives on and, like Pat Robertson, may yet prove to be an embarrassment to his party by convention time.

Dick Gephardt prospered, but his blatant appeal to the self-interest of farmers and to economic patriotism in general was disquieting--not a good development for the Democratic Party. He comes across as an opportunist--changing his position overnight (to “pro-choice”) on the abortion issue, for example. Now he tells us that he has “grown,” just as Dole claimed a few years back. I doubt if the market will relish a Gephardt-Dole duel (or a Gephardt-Robertson one, for that matter).

Gov. Michael Dukakis of Massachusetts is obviously well positioned as the focus shifts to New Hampshire. Sen. Paul Simon of Illinois, “not a new-anything,” will contend with him for the liberal vote. Any one of the top three could win the nomination, and it now seems unlikelythat anyone else will get it. A prolonged contest throughout the primary season seems probable, a brokered convention in the cards.

Bear in mind, however, that the Iowa caucus results have not been good at predicting the Oval Office occupant. Edmund Muskie won in 1972, George Bush in 1980, Walter Mondale in 1984. Iowa is more liberal than the nation, and its procedures are tailor-made to permit an influential role for the press. On now to New Hampshire and the secret ballot.