Politics 88 : Dole Tops Bush in Gallup Poll; Dukakis Leads

Kansas Sen. Bob Dole has overtaken Vice President George Bush by 36% to 28% in one poll, and two other surveys showed them in a virtual dead heat as they headed into the New Hampshire primary Tuesday.

A Gallup poll of New Hampshire residents considered likely to vote in the primary showed 36% of them favoring Dole, with Bush supported by 28%. Well behind them in the GOP race were New York Rep. Jack Kemp at 12%, former religious broadcaster Pat Robertson with 11% and former Delaware Gov. Pierre S. (Pete) du Pont IV with 7%.

Among the Democrats, Massachusetts Gov. Michael S. Dukakis was maintaining his substantial lead in the Gallup survey, with the support of 39% of those considered most likely to vote. Missouri’s Rep. Richard A. Gephardt, boosted by his victory in the Iowa caucuses, moved into a statistical tie for second place with Illinois Sen. Paul Simon, who finished second in Iowa. Gephardt received 18% in the latest survey; Simon got 16%.

Single-Digit Scores

The other Democratic candidates--the Rev. Jesse Jackson (7%), Tennessee Sen. Albert Gore Jr. (5%), former Arizona Gov. Bruce Babbitt (5%) and former Colorado Sen. Gary Hart (3%)--got single-digit scores.

The telephone survey, with margins of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points on the Republicans and 4 percentage points on the Democrats, was conducted Friday and Saturday by polling 993 Republicans who plan to vote in the primary and 756 Democrats who intend to vote.

Polls by CBS News and ABC News and the Washington Post found tight races in both parties for the slots behind the leaders.

The CBS survey was conducted Feb. 12 and 13. The ABC-Post poll was based on interviews of Feb. 11, 12 and 13.

The CBS survey found the Republican race going this way: Dole 31%, Bush 30%, Kemp 11%, Robertson 10%, Du Pont 10% and 8% undecided.

Given the survey’s 4-percentage-point margin of error, Dole and Bush were tied. In a previous CBS survey done Feb. 10 and 11, Dole had 32% and Bush had 29%.

ABC-Post Results

In the ABC-Post interviews among Republicans, here was the breakdown: Dole 31%, Bush 28%, Kemp 13%, Robertson 11%, Du Pont 11%. Former Secretary of State Alexander M. Haig Jr., who dropped out Friday, drew 1% and 4% were undecided.

The ABC survey was based on interviews with 374 Republicans likely to vote. The CBS survey polled 594 likely GOP voters.

Among Democrats, the ABC poll laid out the race this way: Dukakis 40%, Simon 17%, Gephardt 16%, Jackson 7%, Gore 7%, Babbitt 6%, Hart 3%, undecided and others 5%.

The CBS survey gave Gephardt a bit of an edge and Simon a smaller number. It was Dukakis 42%, Gephardt 18%, Simon 12% Jackson 4%, Gore 4%, Hart 4%, Babbitt 3% and 13% undecided.

The CBS survey was based on interviews with 483 Democrats who plan to vote in the primary. The ABC survey polled 383 Republicans likely to vote.

In polls based on about 400 interviews--such as both the ABC polls--the margin of error is 6 percentage points either way.

In polls based on about 500 interviews--such as the CBS survey of Democrats--the error margin is 5 percentage points. In polls based on about 600 interviews, such as the CBS Republican survey, the margin of error is 4 percentage points.