Record Vote Predicted in N.H. Races : Bush Seeks to Head Off Dole; Dukakis Seems Easy Winner

Vice President George Bush is striving desperately to head off another defeat by Sen. Bob Dole in the Republican presidential contest, while Massachusetts Gov. Michael S. Dukakis appears headed for an easy victory in the Democratic column as New Hampshire voters go to the polls today in the first primary of the 1988 campaign.

As all candidates added the closing flourishes to their campaigns Monday, election officials predicted a record turnout--as high as 75% of the state’s estimated 600,000 voters. But forecasts of rain or snow caused concern among candidates counting on a high turnout.

In both parties, the race has been, in effect, segmented into two levels, with some of the most intense competition among the lower-echelon candidates who are threatened with extinction if they do poorly today.

Battle of Conservatives

Among the Republicans, New York Rep. Jack Kemp, former religious broadcaster Pat Robertson and former Delaware Gov. Pierre S. (Pete) du Pont IV are fighting for the right to claim the allegiance of GOP conservatives and to ultimately become the alternative to either Bush or Dole,should one of those leaders be forced out.

On the Democratic side, Missouri Rep. Richard A. Gephardt and Illinois Sen. Paul Simon are waging a bitter struggle for second place and the chance to emerge as a credible threat in the South’s March 8 Super Tuesday primaries.

Voters in Dixville Notch, which traditionally produces the first returns, favored Bush among Republicans with 11 votes. Dole had 6, Kemp 5, Du Pont 2, former Secretary of State Alexander M. Haig Jr. 2 and Robertson 1. Haig had already dropped out of the race. Gephardt led Democrats with 4 votes. Simon got 3 and no other Democrat got any. The village, population 47, voted at midnight.

Although the campaign here has gone on for months because of this state’s strategic importance, the Republican contest has been transformed dramatically within the last few days by the shock waves from last week’s Iowa caucuses. In that contest, longtime front-runner Bush suffered a humiliating defeat, finishing third behind Dole and Robertson.

On Monday, Bush spent his last full day of campaigning here visiting a retirement home and sipping coffee and doughnuts with restaurant customers, telling people he would pull out a victory here.

Bush was joined by retired Sen. Barry Goldwater of Arizona, the latest in a series of celebrities flown in to shore up the vice president’s campaign.

“He’s the best-qualified candidate of my lifetime,” Goldwater said.

In addition, Bush broadcast a five-minute campaign commercial that features Goldwater saying he supports Bush because he is the one candidate who will “keep the revolution alive we started 25 years ago”--a reference to Goldwater’s 1964 candidacy.

Other famous faces in Bush’s contingent Monday included former Boston Red Sox star Ted Williams and Penn State football coach Joe Paterno. Williams, drawing as much attention as Bush, found himself signing autographs on the vice president’s back.

Undaunted by late polls that show he has lost his lead to Dole, Bush predicted he would score the same kind of upset in New Hampshire that Ronald Reagan did in 1980.

Dole, meanwhile, continued to play it cautious, as he did in Iowa before scoring his impressive victory.

“I’m always skeptical until the polls close,” he said.

Brock Expresses Confidence

William E. Brock III, Dole’s national campaign chairman, expressed more confidence.

“I don’t think it’s possible for George Bush to win tomorrow,” said Brock, who resigned as secretary of labor to run the Dole campaign.

It was Robertson who figured out how to make the most news on the eve of the primary, perhaps unintentionally, with a widely disputed charge that there are Soviet nuclear missiles in Cuba. But, after saying it first during a televised candidates’ debate on Sunday, Robertson vacillated in the face of strong denials from the White House, the Pentagon, members of the Senate Armed Services Committee and from rival candidates.

Robertson is generally believed to be in a fight for third place here, in a state that was not thought to have a broad base of evangelical voters. However, Douglas Wead, a Bush aide and an expert on evangelical Christians, suggested that there may be a potential support network in the 50,000 active contributors in New Hampshire to the “700 Club” television show that Robertson founded.

Wants to Count Votes

Robertson supporters have angered state Republican officials by asking to make their own vote count. Scott Malyrick, the party’s executive director, said his office has received about 25 such requests, some asking to count the votes, others simply asking to observe the vote count.

Party Chairwoman Elsie Vartanian said she was “offended” by the requests, which are similar to ones Robertson made in Iowa last week.

“It’s impugning the integrity of the ballot people. It’s offensive, and that’s why I’ve ignored it,” Vartanian said.

When campaigning in Manchester, Kemp, expected to do no better than third, insisted he was in a battle for second.

He predicted that the race here will come down to a contest between him and Dole. He depicted the primary as a choice between Dole’s “pain, sacrifice and bitter-medicine campaign” and his own “growth, hope, opportunity, progressive, populist-conservative” effort.

Kemp kept up the attacks on Bush and Dole that have been his stock in trade here for the last few weeks--and the only tactic that seemed to give him a boost in the polls.

“George and Bob never saw a tax they didn’t hike,” Kemp said.

Fight for Third Place

Most polls have pointed to a battle for third among Kemp, Robertson and Du Pont. A strong finish is considered critical for both Kemp and Du Pont.

Du Pont said he had no plans to drop out of the race, regardless of how he does here.

Among the Democrats, the main spotlight was on Simon and Gephardt as they appeared to be deadlocked in a struggle for second place. Dukakis, campaigning as New England’s favorite son, was ahead of his closest rivals by more than 20 percentage points in most polls.

However, Dukakis warned supporters against overconfidence.

“Anything can happen and usually does,” Dukakis said. “We’ve got to be working today and Tuesday. Wednesday you can rest. I’m going South.”

But, for all his earnest concern, Dukakis may face no problem more serious than simply getting his backers to take his caution seriously in view of the overwhelming advantage he appeared to enjoy.

The biggest impediments to Gephardt’s efforts to gain ground here has been the familiarity Dukakis has gained among local Democrats during his two terms as governor of nearby Massachusetts and the popularity he has earned with some because of his opposition to licensing a nuclear power plant at Seabrook on the New Hampshire coast.

As if that were not problem enough for Gephardt, he found himself assaulted from behind by Simon, who, after finishing second to the Missourian in Iowa, saw himself drop into third place in polls right after the Iowa vote.

In danger of being forced out of the race, Simon struck hard at Gephardt, with television commercials that cited differences between Gephardt’s voting record and his current positions--implying that he was untrustworthy.

Gephardt counterattacked over the weekend with a commercial accusing Simon of distorting his record on Social Security. The ad cited the endorsement of Gephardt by Democratic Rep. Claude Pepper of Florida, who is regarded as a watchdog for benefits for the elderly.

In the same ad, Gephardt hit back at Dukakis also for criticizing Gephardt’s vote for the 1981 tax cut, considered the cornerstone of the Reagan Administration’s economic policy.

“He’s attacked Dick Gephardt for voting to cut your income taxes,” the ad says. “But what else would you expect from Dukakis, who is one of the biggest tax-raisers in Massachusetts history.”

The commercial was part of a last-minute effort by Gephardt not only to respond to the criticism of his rivals but also to switch his basic strategy by claiming credit for voting for the tax-cut bill, a vote he had previously contended was cast reluctantly, after he had fought to pass an alternative measure.

On the stump Monday, Gephardt sought to stress the new tax-cutting theme.

‘Making Taxes Fair’

“My whole career has been about making taxes fair for middle-class and poor Americans. That’s what I fought for and that’s what I accomplished,” Gephardt asserted.

“Michael Dukakis has been avoiding the tax issue by talking about better collection of taxes, which everybody recognizes is a subterfuge for not talking about the tax issue,” he added. “If you look at his record in Massachusetts, he’s been a raiser of taxes for the middle class.”

But on television news in New Hampshire, Gephardt’s tactics raised again the suggestion that he was changing his message to please the audience of the moment. “Gephardt has softened his (Iowa) trade message in favor of an anti-tax message tailor-made for New Hampshire,” the local NBC station said.

Simon, meanwhile, after spending most of the last week attacking Gephardt, turned his sights on Dukakis. Standing in the early morning cold on the New Hampshire-Massachusetts border, he predicted a surprise in the primary.

When asked if he was saying he might overtake Dukakis’ huge lead in the polls, an upbeat Simon replied, “That is correct.”

In a press conference later, Simon conceded that the likelihood of beating Dukakis was remote but insisted that his campaign’s phone calls to Democratic voters had convinced him that “there is a possibility we might pull an upset.”

‘Anti-Dukakis’ Vote Seen

In campaigning around the state, Simon repeatedly attempted to cast today’s contest as one between himself and Dukakis. “We think there is a hidden anti-Dukakis vote out there that is looking for some place to go,” Simon Press Secretary Terry Michael said.

Although a Gallup poll issued late in the day showed Gephardt with a slim lead over Simon, it was clear Monday that the Simon camp thought their candidate had slowed or stopped Gephardt’s Iowa momentum.

However, local newscasters depicted Simon Monday as looking desperate, fighting for his political life and being “heavily in debt,” although Simon’s forces may have taken some comfort from the fact that his campaign was usually discussed before Gephardt’s.

Of the four other Democrats, the Rev. Jesse Jackson and Tennessee Sen. Albert Gore Jr. have little to gain and not much to lose from the results here, because both are concentrating on Super Tuesday.

The other two, former Arizona Gov. Bruce Babbitt and former Colorado Sen. Gary Hart, are in danger of being forced out of the race if they cannot improve on their performances in Iowa, where they finished fifth and sixth respectively in the seven-man field.

Staff writers Cathleen Decker, Thomas B. Rosenstiel, Keith Love and Douglas Jehl contributed to this story.

NEW HAMPSHIRE AT A GLANCE

THE STATE

Population: 1,027,000 (’86 est.); 52.2% urban.

Racial/ethnic makeup: 98.8% white. No minority group

greater than 0.4%

Major cities: Manchester, 91,000; Nashua, 68,000;

Concord (capital), 30,000.

Economy: Diversified manufacturing, tourism,

dairy farming.

Registered voters (1986): 551,297

Democrats 30%

Republicans 37%

Unaffiliated (can vote in either primary) 33%

THE PRIMARY

Polls close at 8 p.m. EST

At stake are 22 delegates to the Democratic National Convention and 23 to the Republican convention. For the Democrats, delegates will be allocated proportionally among all candidates receiving 15% or more of the primary vote.

Republican delegates will be allocated proportionally among all candi-

dates receiving 10% or more of the vote.