Bush, Dukakis Victors in N. H. : Gephardt 2nd and Simon 3rd for Democrats

Massachusetts Gov. Michael S. Dukakis coasted to an easy victory in the Democratic presidential primary in this neighboring New England state Tuesday while Missouri Rep. Richard A. Gephardt edged out Illinois Sen. Paul Simon in a strategically crucial battle for runner-up.

The Rev. Jesse Jackson, once again demonstrating, as he did in last week’s Iowa caucuses, his ability to pull votes from outside his base of black support, finished in fourth place. Tennessee Sen. Albert Gore Jr., former Arizona Gov. Bruce Babbitt and former Colorado Sen. Gary Hart brought up the rear in that order.

With 100% of the precincts reporting, these were the results: Dukakis, 36%; Gephardt, 20%; Simon, 17%; Jackson, 8%; Gore, 7%; Babbitt, 5%; Hart, 4%, and other, 2%.

Won ‘the Gold’

“I love the people of New Hampshire,” Dukakis told cheering supporters at a victory rally here. “Last week in Iowa our message started to shine through, and we won a bronze. Tonight, here in New Hampshire, our message came through loud and clear. We went for the gold and we won it . . . .”

In referring to the challenge confronting his candidacy in the South in the March 8 Super Tuesday primary in that region, Dukakis said he had been asked if he had a special strategy for the South. “The fact of the matter is, I don’t have a Southern strategy. I don’t have a Northern strategy or a Western strategy. I have an American strategy.

“We believe in the kind of politics where you can say the same thing wherever you go in this country, a campaign that unites America, does not divide us.”

Gephardt, who stressed much the same theme of national unity in his comments to his supporters, reflected the optimism among his advisers that his second-place finish here would provide an important boost to his fund-raising efforts before the Super Tuesday primary.

Asserting that he had been warned on arriving in New Hampshire last week after his victory in Iowa that voters here were too comfortable to respond to the issues he emphasized in economically distressed Iowa, Gephardt said: “We proved this is one nation and one country, and we proved that the people of New Hampshire care about the economy and care about the country and care about this cause.”

Simon Vows to Continue

For his part Simon, in the face of his third-place finish, was understandly more subdued. But he vowed to continue his campaign.

“The returns tonight are not what we had hoped for,” Simon told cheering supporters at a rally. “But the most important thing is what we stand for . . . a nation that cares again . . . . So we go on tomorrow to Minnesota and South Dakota.”

Dukakis’ victory here bolstered the notion that he was the closest thing to a front-runner to emerge in this still amorphous 1988 Democratic race. He entered the New Hampshire contest with a huge financial advantage over his adversaries and the success here was certain to keep the funds rolling in and assure him of continued media attention.

On the other hand, Gephardt’s success in winning the battle for second place against Simon means that he will be able to pose a strong challenge to Dukakis in the South, where many feel that the Border State congressman has more potential appeal than the New England governor.

Indeed the Gephardt forces are already primed for their next clash with Dukakis, in the South Dakota primary next Tuesday. In that race, the Gephardt forces are expected to announce today the endorsement of Gephardt by Democratic Sen. Thomas A. Daschle, who they are counting on to give his campaign there a boost.

The Times exit polls reflected the scope of Dukakis’ victory. The 54-year-old governor, now in his third term, won most of the liberals, who make up about half of New Hampshire Democrats, and most of the moderates, who make up about a quarter of the electorate. Simon finished second among liberals, while Gephardt was runner-up among moderates and won the conservatives, the smallest group.

Gephardt ran strongest in urban areas. He ran first in Manchester, the state’s largest and most Democratic city, and overall won about 25% of the urban vote, nearly as much as Dukakis, who got about 30%. Dukakis’ strongest region, not surprisingly, was near the border of his own state, where he received nearly 40% of the vote, compared with about 20% each for Simon and Gephardt.

Stepped-Up Pace

Because of its strategic position near the start of the nominating calendar, New Hampshire got plenty of attention from all the Democratic contenders throughout 1987. But the pace and intensity of the contest increased by geometric proportions after the results from last week’s Iowa precinct caucuses rolled in.

Strategists for all the contenders were fully mindful of Iowa’s dramatic impact on New Hampshire in 1984, when a 16% second-place finish by Hart gave him the momentum to overtake and defeat longtime front-runner Walter F. Mondale and change the nature of the Democratic campaign for the presidency.

Advisers to Dukakis were naturally concerned that history might repeat itself after Gephardt, a dark horse in New Hampshire, won in Iowa, while Dukakis finished third there. But the post-Iowa polling here last week indicated that the Massachusetts governor was holding on to most, if not all, of the support he had gained before Iowa.

One reason for this was that national and regional media treated Dukakis’ third-place finish as respectable, thus reassuring his supporters. Another reason was that Dukakis’ support, built up over his eight years as governor, appeared to be more enduring than the backing Mondale had gained in New Hampshire in a few months of campaigning before the Iowa results.

The post-Iowa polling indicated also that Gephardt got nowhere near as much help from his victory in Iowa as Hart had derived from his second-place finish there. In part, this was because Gephardt’s success was minimized by the media, with some accounts describing his four-point margin over Simon as “a dead heat.”

Additionally, Gephardt’s attempt to overtake Dukakis was undercut by Simon’s determined onslaught on Gephardt, whom he depicted as sort of a political chameleon for shifting his position on a range of issues.

Simon’s tactics turned the campaign into what amounted to a battle between Simon and Gephardt for second place and for a measure of symbolic success that would help their campaigns after New Hampshire. And the result was to leave Dukakis relatively unchallenged.

Pair Marking Time

For two other Democratic candidates--Jackson and Gore--the stakes in the outcome here were lower than for the top three contenders. Both were essentially marking time in New Hampshire while they prepared to focus their resources and energy on the March 8 Super Tuesday primary in the South.

For Jackson, with its less than 1% black population, New Hampshire offered a chance to show he can win white support. “We spent $25,000 here,” he said. “My counterparts spent 450,000 plus dollars, they outspent me 10 to 1 and yet a poor campaign, a rich message has been successful in New Hampshire.”

For Gore, the contest was an opportunity to test and season his campaign staff for the Super Tuesday effort. “The preliminaries are now over,” Gore said in Washington Tuesday, “and the major event of this election will take place in three weeks.”

For the final two candidates, Babbitt and Hart, the contest had offered a chance to either improve on the fifth- and sixth-place finishes they respectively achieved in Iowa or face the consequences--which could turn out to be fatal to their candidacies.

Babbitt, saying there is a time to be realistic, said Tuesday night that he will decide in two days whether to stay in the Democratic presidential race and announce his decision Thursday.

“I want to be realistic,” he said. “There’s a point when the best thing to do is say you had your chance.”

But Hart refused to consider withdrawal at this point. “This nomination is not won in one week or 30 days, it’s going to be a six-month campaign,” he said. “It will take at least 30 to 60 days to determine whether or not I can put together a viable candidacy.”

THE NEW HAMPSHIRE VOTE Republicans

298 of 298 precincts reporting.

23 convention delegates at stake.

Vote Pct. Delegates Bush 58,656 38 11 Dole 44,361 29 7 Kemp 19,757 13 3 Du Pont 15,608 10 2 Robertson 14,557 9 0 Haig* 545 0 0

* (withdrew) Democrats 294 of 298 precincts reporting.

18 convention delegates at stake (excluding 4 officially non committed delegates).

Vote Pct. Delegates Dukakis 43,350 36 6 Gephardt 24,139 20 6 Simon 20,697 17 3 Jackson 9,580 8 0 Gore 8,219 7 0 Babbitt 5,559 5 0 Hart 4,797 4 0