CAMPAIGN ’88 : Bush Leads Dole in Poll

Vice President George Bush has a solid lead over Kansas Sen. Bob Dole in the race for Republican primary votes in Texas and Florida while the Democratic presidential race in the those states is wide open, according to a Gallup Poll.

Moving into the final week before Super Tuesday, Bush leads Dole by almost three to one (59% vs. 20%) among those who plan to vote in Texas’ first Republican presidential primary. Bush’s lead in Florida is 50% to Dole’s 24%.

Former religious broadcaster Pat Robertson has 12% of GOP voter support in Texas and 9% in Florida, and New York Rep. Jack Kemp places a poor fourth in both states, receiving 4% in Texas and 6% in Florida.

In Florida, Massachusetts Gov. Michael S. Dukakis leads the Democratic field, with 30% support among registered Democrats who plan to vote in Florida’s primary Tuesday. Dukakis is followed in the candidate standings by Missouri Rep. Richard A. Gephardt (15%), Jackson (14%), Gary Hart (7%), Tennessee Sen. Albert Gore Jr. (6%) and Illinois Sen. Paul Simon (4%).

Given the high proportion of undecided voters (24%), however, and the low proportion of voters who strongly support one of the candidates (22%), another Democrat could easily overtake Dukakis when the votes are counted, according to Gallup.

As in Florida, Dukakis leads the Democratic field in Texas. But in the largest Super Tuesday state, the race is tighter. Among those planning to vote in the Democratic primary, Dukakis has 24% support, followed by Jackson (19%), Gephardt (17%), Gore (11%), Hart (11%) and Simon (2%). Candidate support is very “soft,” with 17% undecided and only about three in ten (29%) firmly committed to one candidate or another.

The poll surveyed 1,206 registered Florida voters and included 396 Republican primary voters and 489 Democratic primary voters. The Texas survey was based on interviews with 1,207 registered Texas voters and included 496 Republican primary voters and 483 Democratic primary voters. Both states were surveyed by phone Feb. 26-28, and the margin of error for Democratic and GOP voters is 5 percentage points.