Missouri: From Shoo-In to Showdown

For cynics who see politics as a triumph of symbol over substance, there was fodder galore Monday night as Bob Dole capped the Super Tuesday phase of his quest for the Republican presidential nomination with a big rally here.

That Dole felt compelled to wrap up things in this Missouri metropolis, barely a wheat stalk away from his native Kansas, said more about his limping campaign effort than any of the encouraging words he spoke to fire up dispirited backers.

By all rights, Missouri should be solidly in Dole’s corner, one of the few bright spots in an otherwise bleak round of Southern primaries that Vice President George Bush is expected to win in a romp today.

Instead, a surprisingly strong bid by Bush to embarrass Dole in his own backyard has turned the “Show Me” state into one of the pivotal showdown spots for the two archrivals.

Like Iowa, where Dole trounced Bush in caucuses last month, Missouri borders on Kansas. Dole is well known here and jokes about once doubling as the Republican senator from Missouri back when both of the state’s senators were Democrats.

Yet, Dole took the state for granted until recently and found himself struggling to salvage a victory. By last week, Bush had pulled dead even with Dole in the polls and began smelling blood. Sensing the shock waves a loss here would send through the Dole camp, both candidates targeted the state for heavy doses of last-minute campaigning. Dole spent two of the last three days in the state, even bypassing a return to crucial North Carolina where polls suggest he could squeak out a victory.

Meanwhile, Bush canceled plans to campaign in Florida Sunday and crisscrossed Missouri instead. “I don’t want to give this area away to anybody,” Bush explained. “This is an open ground for real competition . . . we’re not going to give anything away.

Saturated Airwaves

The vice president also saturated the state’s airwaves with a weekend barrage of television commercials, estimated by the Dole camp to have a price tag of $170,000.

“I think he’s trying to have a knockout punch here on Super Tuesday,” conceded Dole while campaigning in Jefferson City on Saturday. “But we’ve been knocked down before, we’re not going to get knocked out. This is a key state.”

Privately, some aides blame Dole’s inattention to the state until recently for providing Bush with a chance to sneak up.

Dole may also have been hobbled by an inability to win the public endorsement of the state’s top two Republicans, Sens. John C. Danforth and Christopher S. Bond. Both men privately back Dole, but withheld formal commitments fearing political reprisals from Bush supporters.

Referring to polls that show he attracts many Democrats and independents as well as Republicans, Dole said he was far more “electable” than Bush in a contest against the eventual Democratic nominee. And, should that Democrat be St. Louis Rep. Richard A. Gephardt, Dole reminded Missouri Republicans that they might be saving their own political hides by helping to save his.

“We want to nominate our strongest candidate,” Dole said, “and that’s particularly true in this state where someone named Gephardt might end up somewhere on the ticket. And there are a lot of Republican gains in this state that might be wiped out.”