Bandwagon Effect May Aid Dukakis : Gore Needs Big Victory Outside Southern Base

In the wake of the massive Super Tuesday presidential competition, Massachusetts Gov. Michael S. Dukakis, the Democratic front-runner, and his newly established principal challenger, Tennessee Sen. Albert Gore Jr., each has something essential to prove in the coming weeks of battles for convention delegates.

But all Dukakis has to do, party officials and activists agreed Wednesday, is just what he has been doing--finishing first in most of the major primaries. Gore, on the other hand, must show that he can accomplish something he has yet to do, win a big contest outside his home region.

Jackson’s Role

As for the Rev. Jesse Jackson, the extent of his role in shaping the struggle for the nomination probably depends on what happens to the Dukakis and Gore candidacies. He won nearly as many delegates as Dukakis on Tuesday, and about 10% of the white vote, thereby demonstrating an appeal beyond his black base and assuring himself an imposing presence at the Democratic convention. But most analysts still regard Jackson more as a compelling supporting player than as a possible standard bearer.

As the Democratic arithmetic stands now, Dukakis may well have a hard time getting an absolute majority of the 4,160 Democratic convention delegates by the time the primary calendar closes in California and New Jersey on June 7.

The governor, buoyed by his victories in Texas and Florida, now has 456 delegates, compared to 346 for Gore, who carried four Southern states besides his own. Jackson, who won five states Tuesday, has 395.

To get to the magic number of 2,081, Dukakis would have to take nearly 75% of the 2,100 pledged delegates at stake in the remaining primaries and caucuses. That would be a much higher ratio than he has been able to reach so far, and difficult for any contender to achieve in a multicandidate race because of Democratic proportional representation rules. But many believe that, if Dukakis comes close to a majority, psychology will supplant arithmetic and put him over the top. California Democratic Chairman Peter Kelly said that, if Dukakis could win 40% of the delegates in primaries and caucuses, there would be a rush to support him among unpledged delegates and supporters of other candidates eager to climb on the front-runner’s bandwagon and avoid a divisive convention fight.

“Once you get to 40%, the leverage is tremendous,” Kelly said.

That’s the view also of Democratic National Chairman Paul G. Kirk Jr., who called the chances of a brokered convention “slim to none.”

Without referring specifically to any of the Democratic contenders, Kirk said: “As long as you have someone who has shown a consistent pattern of winning big states, you’ll see folks unite behind the leader,” even if the leader does not happen to have an absolute majority.

And reaching such a point was plainly the objective of the Dukakis campaign. “We’re just going to go ahead consistently doing what we have been doing, campaigning nationally and going into every state to win delegates,” campaign chairman Paul Brountas said. “We certainly hope to finish ahead of everybody else.”

Still, it remains clearly possible for the combined forces of Gore and Jackson to block the front-runner’s path and throw the Democratic race into deadlock and turmoil.

But, to accomplish that, it’s generally believed, Gore would have to defeat the New Englander in a big state outside of Gore’s home region in the South.

“Gore has to win a big one on the road,” said Mark Siegel, a Democratic Party executive committee member, a neutral in the Democratic contest. Gore’s partisans point with pride to their candidate’s victories in caucuses in Wyoming last Saturday night and Nevada on Super Tuesday. But what is called for now, many feel, is success on a much larger scale.

Illinois, the next Democratic battleground, with its primary on Tuesday, seems an unlikely prospect because Gore has had little time to organize and campaign in that state. But, if Gore does not need to win Illinois, he cannot afford to do badly there, either.

“Gore has to win delegates there,” said Paul Tully, Dukakis’ former national political director. “There can’t be a big gap between him and Dukakis.”

Moreover, Tully contends, Gore cannot go on for very long without scoring a big victory. “The longer you’re seen as not a winner, the shorter the time left and the harder it is to raise money,” he said.

Among the possible targets for Gore are the primaries in Pennsylvania, on April 26, and Ohio, on May 3.

“Gore could win Ohio and Pennsylvania if he can capture the blue-collar and conservative vote,” said Sergio Bendixen, a consultant to the now defunct presidential campaign of former Arizona Gov. Bruce Babbitt.

That bloc of voters has been the main target of the presidential campaign of Missouri Rep. Richard A. Gephardt. Gephardt’s campaign was damaged seriously, perhaps even fatally, when he failed to get his populist message, with its stress on tougher trade policy, across in the Super Tuesday vote.

Indeed, Gore seemingly was putting increasing emphasis on themes and arguments that sounded much like Gephardt’s rhetoric. On Wednesday, for example, he talked about “putting the White House back on the side of working men and women” and the need for “fundamental change” in the country.

Gore’s message is less abrasive than Gephardt’s because it avoids such proposals as Gephardt’s call for tougher trade legislation. But it was questionable whether, shorn of such specifics, a populist theme could win much support.

“I heard Gore say his campaign is about ‘solving America’s problems and solving them correctly,’ ” said Peter Kelly. “What the hell does that mean?”

The speculation about Dukakis and Gore served only to add to the post-Super Tuesday frustration of Jackson’s aides, resentful that most analysts still did not give him a serious chance to win the nomination.

Frank Watkins, the campaign’s political director, said: “In an Olympic year, we ought to count gold and silver medals.” In terms of first- and second-place finishes in Super Tuesday states, he pointed out, Jackson had 17, Gore 11, and Dukakis 10.

“Looking at the headlines today,” campaign manager Gerald Austin said, “we are finally getting headlines that correlate to what we did. The press is finally starting to treat us with credibility and as a viable player.”

Another factor that could affect the chances of a deadlocked convention is a revival of Gephardt’s candidacy after his failure to carry any state but his own on Tuesday.

If that does happen--and many deem it unlikely--it probably won’t take place until the caucuses in Michigan on March 26, where Gephardt’s aides are hoping his advocacy of tough trade policies will bring him the support of the United Auto Workers union.

Staff writer Douglas Jehl contributed to this story.