Now-or-Never-Time for Gore, Gephardt, Simon

The South has had its shot and now the muddle moves on. This week it’s Illinois. Later this month, Michigan, then Wisconsin in early April. Then, in the space of two weeks come New York, Pennsylvania and Ohio, three states vital to any Democrat’s chances.

Five Democrats leave Dixie alive or resuscitable. A few thoughts on each of the three who need to show something soon:

Sen. Albert Gore Jr. : The Tennessean was the surprise Tuesday; he exceeded expectations and got a large portion of the white Democratic vote. He was actually helped by the early endorsements of many state Democratic leaders and then profited from late nods by current and future Senate colleagues, including Sens. Sam Nunn of Georgia, J. Bennett Johnston of Louisiana, David Boren of Oklahoma and former Gov. Charles S. Robb of Virginia. The surprise was a result of the failure of “conventional wisdom”--that Gore could not skip Iowa and New Hampshire and begin his campaign on Super Tuesday. He did, and reaped a large harvest of delegates--a third overall. However, he may be close to $1 million in debt, not serious, but a problem as he heads to Northern climes not noted for offering expansive hospitality to relative unknowns.

Though he displays political skills, Gore should gird himself for the media scrutiny and opponents’ barbs that hurt Rep. Richard A. Gephardt of Missouri. Because now it’s his turn. Positioning himself as the electable alternative to Massachusetts Gov. Michael S. Dukakis is right for Gore. He should emphasize his 12 years in Congress and push his foreign-policy credentials. Gore should keep talking like Gephardt on standing with American workers--indeed praise him a bit for his ideas. It would help if Gore would let his Southern charm show and, above all, let himself go--genuineness sells.

Rep. Richard Gephardt : He had an awful Super Tuesday. He spent too much of his limited television money in Florida and saw his negatives rise. He should have limited his campaign to the few states that would have been receptive to his tough trade and jobs talk. He heads North bleeding and short of money, but he still has his message--and it could still sell in the March 26 Michigan caucuses if he gets help from the United Auto Workers.

He should let labor know that if the messenger dies, so does the message. Barely alive, but capable of a better day or two. Iowa was no fluke, a better forum but no fluke. The other candidates and the media will lay off him now, giving him up for dead. Michigan is a caucus state like Iowa. Gephardt should go retail--his lack of money dictates it--but his style should welcome it as his best and last chance.

Sen. Paul Simon : He didn’t lose much and may have been helped by three-way delegate split between Dukakis, Jesse Jackson and Gore in Dixie. He has some money and will fight it out on his home turf in Illinois. He’d better win, or else he will soon pick up opponents for his Senate seat as dogs do fleas. That’s a pretty good incentive for a politician, and coupled with the fact that most members of the white Illinois Democratic Establishment are on the line as his delegates--he loses, they don’t get to the Atlanta party in July--should be enough to win at home. After that, who knows, but the remaining calendar looks better than last week for him. He might be the second or third Lazarus act of 1988.

Now to the leaders:

Dukakis : The clear front-runner. He did more than survive Super Tuesday, he won it--North, South and West. He does, however, still need to pick up close to two-thirds of the delegates yet to be selected--and that’s tough. He also fired off the last of his back-yard states--Massachusetts and Rhode Island--last week. This means there aren’t any 60% Dukakis states left. It remains to be seen how well Dukakis and his cool management style will play in the coming “rust belt” industrial primaries. The proportional way the Democrats split delegates also hurts a front-runner trying to clinch it. Yet Dukakis has money and momentum, and is running the only truly national campaign. They are going to have to take it from him--it’s hard to beat the champ on points.

Jackson : Tuesday was an emotional and personal triumph for him. His victories in five states of the old Confederacy and his national delegate totals (the only candidate to pick up delegates in every primary state) are significant when you consider that most of his voters were not allowed to register barely a generation ago. Jackson has the second highest delegate package and looks to harvest more. The Democrats’ rule--a 15% threshold for delegates--is as much help to him as it is a hindrance to Dukakis. He will be a major player at the convention, to be at least consulted on everything.

All in all, the show goes on. New York Gov. Mario M. Cuomo could not have choreographed it better.