The Times Poll : Simon Home-State Victory Unlikely to Influence Race

Sen. Paul Simon’s victory in the Illinois primary Tuesday clearly was the product of “favorite son” provincialism and probably did little to point the Democratic Party nationally in the direction of an ultimate presidential nominee, the Los Angeles Times Poll found.

Massachusetts Gov. Michael S. Dukakis, who had been thought by many political professionals to be emerging as the Democratic front-runner after his Super Tuesday triumphs last week in Florida and Texas, wound up in Illinois appealing to the same voter blocs as Simon but was unable to excite enough people to overcome the senator’s home-state advantage.

For the most part, voters here ignored Dukakis’ repeated exhortations to abandon a fellow Illinoisan in favor of a New Englander who is “more electable” in November.

Other candidates who previously had won primaries and caucuses and picked up coveted momentum--Missouri Rep. Richard A. Gephardt and Tennessee Sen. Albert Gore Jr.--stirred up little interest in this politically sophisticated industrial state that has been called a microcosm of the nation.

The Rev. Jesse Jackson, coming off victories last week in the South, ran strongly in his home state, but interviews with voters pointed up a problem of sharp racial division for the party. White Democratic voters generally had an unfavorable impression of Jackson. Likewise, black voters had a basically negative impression of all the white candidates except Simon, the local senator.

In the Republican primary, interviews with voters demonstrated that Vice President George Bush was the overwhelming favorite of the party’s traditional grass roots. But, in addition, the interviews illustrated lingering problems for the GOP front-runner.

The one in five Republicans who waited until the final four days of the Illinois race to decide whom to support for the most part wound up siding with Kansas Sen. Bob Dole --an indication of the vice president’s vulnerability to serious campaigning by his opposition.

Republicans who voted for Dole generally had negative impressions of Bush. But Bush’s supporters did not harbor similar anti-Dole resentment. This pointed up potential problems for Bush in November if the vice president wins his party’s nomination.

The Times Poll, directed by I. A. Lewis, interviewed 3,779 Illinois voters after they had cast their ballots. Among those surveyed, 2,486 participated in the Democratic primary and 1,293 voted Republican.

There was ample evidence that Simon’s victory--his first of the primary season--was built on “favorite son” loyalty. Roughly one-fourth of Simon’s supporters said they voted for him because “he’s from the Midwest and he understands our problems.”

Nearly 6 in 10 of Simon’s supporters reported that they had decided to vote for him even before the Iowa caucuses, the year’s first battle.

Supporters Trust Simon

The “main reason” cited for choosing Simon was that “he cares about people like me.” His voters said also that they “trusted” him.

Among Simon’s voters, 90% were white. Among Jackson’s, 20% were white and 75% were black. Looked at another way, Simon got 57% of the white vote and Dukakis picked up 24%. Jackson got just 8% of the white electorate--mainly young, liberal, well-educated professionals who dislike Reagan. Ninety-two percent of the blacks voted for Jackson.

According to the Times Poll, 70% of the Democratic voters on Tuesday were white, 23% were black, 4% were Latinos and 3% were American Indian or Asian.

Also, 6% were Jewish, and they voted by a landslide margin for Simon. The senator was preferred among Jews by more than 2 to 1 over Dukakis, whose Jewish wife is credited with having raised substantial campaign funds from the Jewish community. Jackson got just 5% of the Jewish vote.

Racial Division

The racial division among Democratic voters became particularly clear when they were asked their impressions of the candidates. Four-fifths of the black voters either had a negative impression of Dukakis or no opinion about him. For Gephardt and Gore, the black sentiment was even more negative. Only Simon among the whites was viewed positively by blacks, and their attitude toward him was lukewarm, roughly 4 to 3 favorable.

More than 9 in 10 blacks had a favorable impression of Jackson. But only 3 in 10 whites did. More than half the Anglo voters said they had an unfavorable impression of the civil rights leader, who never has held public office and whose views generally are to the ideological left of the Democratic mainstream.

There was another illustration of racial division within the party when voters were asked whether they agreed or disagreed that “the government is paying too much attention to blacks and other minorities.” Whites were basically split on the question, with slightly more tending to disagree than agree. But blacks disagreed by nearly 12 to 1.

‘Status Quo’ Candidate

In the Republican primary, Bush clearly asserted himself--as he had in previous contests--as the Establishment “status quo” candidate. What divided the Bush-Dole vote more than anything else--definitely more than any single issue--was how people felt toward Reagan and his vice president.

Republicans who approved of how Reagan is handling his job--and 84% did--backed Bush by 2 to 1 over Dole. Conversely, the 16% who disapproved of the President’s performance voted 5 to 3 for Dole over Bush.

Of Dole’s supporters, nearly half viewed Bush unfavorably. Only one-third had a favorable impression--indicating that the “anybody but Bush” vote coalesced in Illinois around Dole. Also, the one in five Republicans who had a negative impression of the vice president voted for the Kansas senator by 40 to 1.

Bush’s supporters said they mainly voted for him because of his “experience”--his impressive resume. Dole’s supporters cited their candidates’ “leadership” and “convictions.” But only 6% of Dole’s supporters bought his argument that they should choose him because he “has the best chance to win in November.”

As for former television preacher Pat Robertson, more than half of his voters described themselves as fundamentalist Protestants. But most fundamentalist Protestants, like other religious groups, voted for Bush--the fundamentalists favoring the vice president by 7 to 1 over Robertson.

ILLINOIS DEMOCRATIC VOTE, BY RACE

Whites Blacks Latinos (71% of vote) (22% of vote) (4% of vote) Simon 56% 6% 23% Jackson 7 91 26 Dukakis 26 3 39 Gore 7 0 5 Gephardt 3 0 0

Source: Los Angeles Times Poll