Democrats Fear Political Impact on Congress : Incursion May Alter Contra Aid Outlook

House Democrats, who have waged a high-stakes battle against military aid for the Nicaraguan Contras, were thrown on the defensive Wednesday by news of Nicaraguan troop movements in Honduras and the Reagan Administration’s renewed demands for Contra aid.

Although they insisted that a majority of House members still oppose sending weapons to the anti-Sandinista rebels, House leaders voiced fears that they have lost control over the volatile issue and that events in the next 48 hours could profoundly alter the political situation in Congress.

“It remains to be seen what will happen in Congress,” said a downcast House Speaker Jim Wright (D-Tex.), who has led the fight against the White House on Contra aid and urged that both sides negotiate a settlement to the bitter Nicaraguan civil war.

“If Nicaragua in fact pulls its troops away from the border, that would be a good development. If they remain in Honduras, that would be a very bad sign. Either way, this will affect opinion in Congress.”

Sandinista Pullback Reported

Wright said he had been informed by Nicaraguan officials that Sandinista forces are being withdrawn from Honduras. He added that Nicaraguan Foreign Minister Miguel D’Escoto told him that Honduras and Nicaragua would hold talks to resolve the tense border situation.

Nevertheless, the Speaker was troubled by the confusing and unpredictable events in Central America. He and other Democratic leaders expressed concerns that their strategy of ending all military aid to the rebels and encouraging peace talks in the region might be unraveling.

In a clear reference to the mood of Congress, Wright suggested that if Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega does not remove his troops, “that would be a most serious matter. . . . It would introduce an element of gravity that could profoundly alter the (political) situation.”

He also criticized the timing of the troop movements, coming a few days before peace talks are scheduled to begin in Nicaragua. Wright said he questioned “the judgment of Ortega in launching this offensive at this time. But he doesn’t ask my advice in things like that.”

Congressional Republicans, meanwhile, rallied behind President Reagan and demanded that the Democratic-controlled House vote on new aid to the rebels. Sensing a new political opening, they criticized Wright for pushing to end weapons shipments, saying Democrats would be held to blame if the latest Sandinista offensive wipes out the Contras.

In a Capitol Hill meeting with Secretary of State George P. Shultz, White House aides and leaders of both parties, House Minority Leader Robert H. Michel (R-Ill.) suggested that the day’s events had changed the dynamics of the Nicaraguan war, according to participants.

“When the Sandinistas cross the border into another country, we can’t sit idly by and pretend it isn’t happening. . . . We can’t look the other way,” Michel said later at a press conference.

Others predicted that Congress, including many Democrats, would now be moved to approve more aid, regardless of past votes.

“The whole object now is to get a new package of Contra aid,” Rep. Mickey Edwards (R-Okla.) said.

The House voted 216-208 on March 3 to reject $30 million in non-military aid to the Contras.

But some Democratic leaders openly challenged the Reagan Administration’s version of events, suggesting that they had been exaggerated to drum up congressional support for more Contra aid.

House Majority Whip Tony Coelho (D-Merced) questioned Shultz’s assertion that the Nicaraguan troops posed a “genuine national security problem” to the United States.

“There are 1,200 troops who have gone across the border who haven’t done anything yet,” he said. “You have to ask whether 1,200 Nicaraguans going across into Honduras is a threat to the United States.”