Job Growth Expected to Slow Down

Orange County job growth--the amount of new employment each month--is expected to drop sharply for the first quarter of 1988 and to continue slowing down through the third quarter, according to Chapman College economist James Doti.

The prediction, based on an analysis of four economic indicators, is somewhat more pessimistic than that issued in December as part of Chapman’s annual Orange County economic forecast.

At that time, Chapman economists had predicted that job growth would slow through the first half of the year but would pick up in the third quarter.

Doti said Monday that the updated employment growth forecast shows that construction activity in the county has dropped off more than originally anticipated. Additionally, he said, the national monetary supply has tightened up in recent months, curtailing consumer spending and capital expenditures by business--both of which are significant factors in employment.

Although Doti now is predicting an additional quarter of slower job growth, he said Monday that the signs still do not point to a recession in the county.