Biding Time, Gore Wages a Rear-Guard Action : Sets His Sights on Primaries in North’s Big Industrial States

With victories in seven states, two outside the South, and second-place finishes in six others, Tennessee Sen. Albert Gore Jr. appeared poised two weeks ago to assert himself as a front-runner in the Democratic presidential race.

But in the important Illinois primary last week, Gore barely escaped last place. He finished just 2 percentage points ahead of Missouri Rep. Richard A. Gephardt, who did not even campaign there. Last Saturday in Kansas, where he campaigned more than any other candidate, Gore was third, far behind Massachusetts Gov. Michael S. Dukakis and the Rev. Jesse Jackson.

And this Saturday in Michigan, where Gore has campaigned sporadically and is not even running television advertisements, he is predicted to finish fourth, this time trailing even Gephardt, whom he trounced in the Super Tuesday contests in the South.

Array of Misdirection

At times, the campaign appears to be a bewildering array of misdirection: a trip to Puerto Rico when the large Michigan primary is just days away; two days of campaigning in relatively unimportant Kansas; an environmental speech in Pueblo, Colo., when the Connecticut primary is just around the bend.

To political analysts, such behavior has suggested that Gore may have run out of steam, or may be incapable of winning an important Northern contest.

Gore and his advisers say they are fighting a rear-guard action, buying time as they ready organization and finances to take on Jackson and Dukakis in the major Northern industrial states.

In a two-week span, beginning April 19 with the New York primary, Democratic hopefuls will battle for nearly 800 delegates across Pennsylvania, Ohio and Indiana, before going on to California and New Jersey on June 7.

Two-Part Strategy

That lineup represents the second half of a two-part strategy--Super Tuesday being the first half--that Gore campaign officials say will put them in position for the Democratic nomination coming out of California.

“Super Tuesday served as a winnowing process,” said Fred Martin, Gore’s campaign manager. “Those who couldn’t run a national campaign didn’t make it through.”

Now, he said, “anyone who wants to argue that he is a winner must demonstrate strength in New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, New Jersey, Oregon and California.”

To that end, Gore spent the weekend and part of Monday stumping New York, Pennsylvania and Connecticut, where he hopes to surprise Dukakis in a neighboring state.

Meets With Shamir

In New York City on Sunday, Gore was keynote speaker to 800 rabbis at their annual dinner and later that night met with Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir.

On Monday, Gore met privately with New York Gov. Mario M. Cuomo, as have other candidates, to curry his favor.

Cuomo, who so far has declined to endorse any candidate, said Gore still has a chance of winning the state, despite trailing Dukakis by nearly 30 points, according to recent polls.

“I would disregard the polls entirely,” Cuomo said. “In 1984, the night of the election, ABC News projected Gary Hart would win by 6 points and (Walter F.) Mondale (whom Cuomo endorsed) won by 16 points.

“In my own election, I started out behind by 30 points and won. So I wouldn’t pay attention to the polls.”

During stops at a construction site and a senior citizens home in Connecticut on Monday, Gore continued his message of “putting the White House back on the side of working people” as he picked up an array of endorsements from union leaders across the state.

“As President, I won’t ask what’s good for the wealthy investor on Wall Street, but what’s good for the construction worker, the assembly-line worker, the average American family,” he told a cheering crowd at a Veterans of Foreign Wars rally.

In the time between now and April 19, Gore expects to win some delegates, but he will not show exceptionally well, he concedes.

“Right now, I’m like Russia fighting the Nazis in 1942,” Gore said in an interview. “I’m giving up land (delegates) for time.”

‘It Takes Time’

Gore clearly needs more time to make himself known in the big delegate-rich states to come. “We need more time to get Al known,” Martin said. “One cannot penetrate a state and get one’s record known overnight. It takes time.”

And, after Super Tuesday, the Gore campaign needed time to raise money. According to the Federal Election Commission, Gore had less than $350,000 on hand at the end of February.

Since then, however, Martin said, fund-raising has been going well.

“We’ve been raising just under $100,000 a day since Super Tuesday, double or triple our rate before then,” he said. “We will have more than enough to wage effective campaigns in those states.”

In the meantime, Gore runs his scattershot, or guerrilla, campaign, depending on the point of view.

In Puerto Rico, Gore operatives say their man staved off an impending endorsement for Dukakis from Gov. Rafael Hernandez Colon, at least until California and possibly permanently. That endorsement, Gore officials said, could have seriously impacted their campaign in New York, where the immigrant Puerto Rican vote figures heavily.

A last-minute push in Kansas boosted Gore above the 15% threshold and assured him at least five delegates and further weakened Gephardt’s revival effort.

The excursion into Colorado, where Gore for once appears to have a leg up on Dukakis, could help produce a Gore victory there April 4 to offset a projected Dukakis victory in Connecticut.

Beneficial Effect

Gore officials have backed off in Michigan, where they think the battle between Dukakis and Gephardt will have a beneficial effect for Gore regardless of the results.

“It will either determine that Dukakis’ strategy of being the inevitable nominee is a fatally flawed strategy, because he won’t win,” a campaign official said. “That’s good for us because that slows him down.

“Or it will determine that Gephardt is out (as a candidate), because he won’t win it. That’s good for us because we have been sharing a lot of votes with him. We’re happy if either happens.”

But by waging a less-than-full campaign before April 19, Gore appears to run the risk of allowing Dukakis to gain too much momentum and too many delegates.

Martin discounts that premise.

“All I heard about for eight months was the risk of the Gore strategy of not going to Iowa and New Hampshire before March 8,” Martin said. “And the week before March 8, the political experts had written our political obituary precisely because we had attempted to survive four weeks of political contests in which we didn’t win and in which we didn’t really show every well either.

“I think the political pundits who were wrong the first time will be wrong the second time.”

Ultimately, Gore hopes to be within striking distance of the nomination after the California and New Jersey primaries on June 7, but with more momentum than either Dukakis or Jackson.