Noriega’s Offer Indicates Days Are Numbered

Although viewing Gen. Manuel A. Noriega’s offer to retire from power with caution and skepticism, Panamanian and foreign observers agree that the general’s public airing of the subject makes his ouster more likely than ever.

The general’s internal opponents and the U.S. government were quick to dismiss the offer as a time-buying ploy; neither trusts him to stick to his word. However, they also concluded that the move represents recognition by the accused drug trafficker that his grip on power is slipping.

“It makes Noriega’s exit appear to be unavoidable,” said a U.S. diplomat who described himself as exceptionally skeptical that the general can be driven from power soon.

“In the Panamanian mind, the offer shows new weakness,” said Roberto Aleman, a member of the anti-Noriega Civic Crusade. “We are encouraged that sooner or later he will be gone.”

“This is a recognition by the government of the depths of the crisis,” said a well-informed member of the military-backed Democratic Revolutionary Party, the party that dominates the rubber-stamp Panamanian legislature and supports Noriega.

2nd Day of Strike

Noriega’s resignation offer relieved none of the internal political pressure on him. A general strike called a day earlier by the Civic Crusade entered its second day Tuesday. It has almost totally paralyzed commerce in Panama City, the country’s economic and political heart.

On Tuesday, owners of Panama City gasoline stations agreed to join the strike, further hindering the normal flow of life in the tiny nation’s capital. Many public workers have been on strike for more than a week.

With the economy at a standstill, poorer Panamanians have begun to beg in the streets, and the Roman Catholic Church has set up soup kitchens to provide food for residents of already impoverished neighborhoods.

Dollars Scarce

U.S. dollars, which are legal tender in Panama, became scarce in Panama this month after a move in the United States to freeze greenbacks held by the Panamanian government in American banks.

Noriega’s resignation offer was the highlight of a nationally broadcast speech Monday by the general’s civilian president, Manuel Solis Palma. Solis said the general might step down before the May, 1989, presidential election and conditioned the proposal on the convening and successful conclusion of talks with the opposition to end political unrest in Panama.

It was the first time Noriega has identified his own ouster as a key to resolving Panama’s 9-month political crisis.

No one, Panamanian, American or otherwise, is predicting when Noriega might give up his command of Panama’s 15,000-member Defense Forces. Forecasts of a quick knockout, originating in Washington, have proved embarrassingly unsound.

Disbelief in Washington

On Tuesday, the Reagan Administration refined its expressions of disbelief in Noriega’s offer.

White House spokesman Marlin Fitzwater dismissed any government change in Panama that does not involve Noriega leaving the country and staying out of the nation’s affairs. “The people of Panama have spoken out resolutely and clearly of their desire for civilian rule over the past few weeks,” he said in a prepared statement. “The successful demonstration in the last 24 hours epitomizes the discontent and growing disillusionment with Noriega’s attempts at manipulating the political system.”

Fitzwater said any negotiations to allow Noriega to remain in Panama would leave him “in actual control of the Panamanian Defense Forces.”

“This proposal is totally unacceptable,” Fitzwater continued. “This proposal is like getting the fox out of the henhouse and then giving him quarters next door.”

Under questioning, the White House spokesman said the Administration wants to make it clear “that our disenchantment with Gen. Noriega does not extend to the institutions of the Panamanian government.”

Trade Curbs Possible

He said the Administration is continuing to consider the imposition of trade sanctions on Panama, although no such steps are imminent. “At the present time it’s a matter of watching, waiting and encouraging the people of Panama to construct this transition to civilian rule,” he said.

In part, Noriega’s offer to step down was aimed at gaining support for his government from Panama’s Latin American neighbors, foreign diplomats here said. Panama’s national radio network arranged to broadcast Solis’ speech live in nine Latin countries as well as to Spain.

Despite the appeals by Solis for solidarity, Latin diplomats evidently took greater interest in a possible exit by Noriega.

“The Panamanian government wants to show a conciliatory image to the outside world,” said a South American diplomat. “By mentioning Noriega’s retirement for the first time, they hope to obtain a tactical victory, since politically they are defeated.”

‘Not a Good Bet’

Added another Latin envoy: “Why should we line up behind Noriega now when it is apparent he is a dead horse? Noriega is not a good bet. The solution has been defined, by his own government, as his departure.”

On Tuesday, as usual here, all eyes were on the Defense Forces and how they might react to Noriega’s resignation proposal. Last week, the general survived an apparent coup attempt mounted by officers under his command, and a military coup is still considered the quickest means here of getting Noriega out of power.

“I expect another coup. Something has to give,” said a source in the Democratic Revolutionary Party.

Noriega is carrying out a purge of disloyal officers and replacing them with loyal and neutral subordinates, foreign military observers here said. The promotions already number more than 100. Three more were made Tuesday.

At the State Department in Washington, spokesman Charles Redman said the promotions were given “for political, not professional, reasons” and have weakened the Panamanian military.

Denying that the United States was in effect waging war against Panama, Redman told reporters: “What’s happening in Panama is in most part the results of the Panamanian people. They’re the ones who are staging the general strike. They are the ones who are showing their displeasure with the continuing state of affairs. They are the ones who have taken steps to block certain of the important financial resources of the regime.”

Times staff writer James Gerstenzang contributed to this article from Washington.