Analysis : Clash at Nicaraguan Border Bolstered Both Sides for Talks

Both the Sandinista army and the Contras gained strategic benefits from bloody battles at the Honduran border last week. As a result, each side is negotiating from an improved position in this week’s peace talks, and neither side appears to be under increased military pressure to make concessions that might ease the way toward agreement.

Sandinista troops struck a significant blow by driving hundreds of guerrillas out of jungle strongholds and across the Honduran border. The army demonstrated that the Contras, at least in that area and for the time being, lacked the missile firepower to deter the government’s most potent weapons--Soviet-supplied helicopters.

But the army failed to attain its goals of trapping the Contra forces, destroying key staging camps and capturing major supply depots. And by crossing into Honduras, the Sandinistas activated the Contras’ most formidable resource--U.S. support.

The incursion triggered a show-of-force airlift of four U.S. Army battalions into Honduras, and it revived hopes for congressional approval of renewed American aid to the Contras.

American aid legally expired Feb. 29. Before that, the Contras were receiving airdropped supplies at a rate estimated at three or four flights a day.

Among the most highly valued supplies dropped in 1987 were 200 to 300 portable Redeye anti-aircraft missiles, which have helped keep the Soviet-made helicopters at bay. Last year, the Contras shot down at least a dozen of the government’s four or five dozen helicopters.

Last week, however, helicopters were instrumental in assaulting Contra positions at the northern border. The rebels apparently had run out of Redeyes in that area, according to a military analyst here.

So renewed consideration by Congress of aid to the Contras boosts their morale for the current round of peace negotiations in the southern Nicaraguan town of Sapoa.

“The Contras went to Sapoa in much stronger shape than they were in 10 days ago,” the analyst said.

The Sandinistas also entered the talks in a strengthened position after pushing five or six Contra units out of their northern strongholds, another analyst contended. He said the massive army operation, involving an estimated 7,500 government soldiers, was obviously timed to precede the peace talks and weaken the Contras’ bargaining position.

The Contras were vulnerable to attack, he said, because they were stuck with defending an area where supplies were stockpiled to replace the U.S. airdrops. Standard guerrilla tactics are to attack and then fade away rather than hold ground.

“For the first time a Contra force was on the defensive,” the analyst said. “So EPS (the acronym for the Sandinista army) units found real targets for their artillery and shock troops.”

The Sandinistas routed the Contras but found few of the rebels’ well-hidden military supplies in the rugged mountains and tangled jungles, analysts agree. They also agree that the Sandinistas miscalculated when they crossed the border in a failed attempt to outflank the retreating Contras and overrun their staging bases.

Honduras quickly protested, and the Reagan Administration rushed in its intimidating deployment of troops. Honduran troops moved into the area, and Honduran warplanes rocketed Sandinista positions on both sides of the border.

“The Sandinistas did not expect such a violent reaction by the Hondurans,” said one analyst.

The Sandinistas were forced to pull out, and most of the Contras got away.

Now the Sandinistas say they will guard the border area to keep the rebels from crossing again, but the Nicaraguan army will be open to hit-and-run guerrilla attacks if its troops stay in the rugged terrain, independent military analysts say.

“It is a zone for going in and out,” said one. “The Sandinistas can’t stay there because Contras will eat them alive.”

And if the Sandinistas try to maintain a major force in the border area, they may weaken their defenses against Contra attack elsewhere. According to independent estimates, the Contras have as many as 10,000 guerrillas spread around the country.

The rebels are well-entrenched in many parts of the country and probably could survive for some time without major new military aid. But to maintain or increase military pressure on the government in Managua, they must have fresh supplies of anti-aircraft missiles and other advanced weapons to balance the superior Sandinista firepower.

After the Feb. 29 expiration date of U.S. aid to the guerrillas and recent congressional defeats of renewed aid, hopes for U.S. support were dim. But thanks to last week’s battle of the border, prospects have improved at a time when aid is of critical importance.

The Sandinistas won the battle but perhaps did not look carefully enough beyond the battlefield.

As one Latin American observer put it, “The Sandinistas make something with their right hand, and they break it with their left hand.”