Although many analysts believe that the U.S....

Although many analysts believe that the U.S. economy weathered the stock market crash with astonishing ease, UCLA economists said the slump is already in progress. They said that a consumer retrenchment and related build-up in inventories is pulling the economy into a mild downturn that will be over before year’s end. Larry J. Kimbell, director of business forecasting at UCLA, said the recession is part of a healthy shift, as the economy begins to rely more heavily on exports and less on imports for growth. “U.S. consumers simply can’t be the world’s buyers of last resort forever,” he said.