Michigan May Winnow Democrats : Dukakis and Jackson Have Chance Today to Leave Rivals Behind

Compared with some other industrial states in which just as much is on the line in this presidential election, Michigan will not have much of a turnout in today’s Democratic caucuses--perhaps 150,000 people out of 6.5 million eligible voters.

But something significant appears to be happening here nonetheless. For the first time, the two front-runners--Massachusetts Gov. Michael S. Dukakis and the Rev. Jesse Jackson--have the chance to make the muddled Democratic presidential race look more and more like a two-man contest.

Aiming at Gephardt

For, as Jackson and Dukakis battle for first here, Dukakis is also trying to effectively end the candidacy of Missouri Rep. Richard A. Gephardt, whose powerful message on trade and excellent television ads had once made him the main white challenger to Dukakis.

It still won’t be a purely two-man race when they come out of here--Gephardt could hang on, and Sens. Paul Simon and Albert Gore Jr. still have some shot in their guns--but Jackson and Dukakis will have taken each other’s measure in an industrial state with perhaps far-reaching consequences for their party.

Michigan Democrats will choose 90 delegates in 18 congressional districts today, with any candidate receiving 15% of the vote in a district qualifying for at least one delegate. Then, 48 at-large delegates will be apportioned to candidates receiving 15% or more of the statewide vote.

It is a chance for someone to finally start to build momentum toward the Democratic nomination.

The polls here give Dukakis a slight edge--he is consistently running about 35%, while Jackson is at 30% and the others trail far behind. Dukakis has sought to capitalize on this with good organization and with a slightly altered stance on trade that is designed to appeal to the many union members whose livelihoods have been threatened by foreign steel and automobiles.

Trade Deficit Switch

After saying for months that the trade deficit could be narrowed by using existing laws, Dukakis early this week suddenly backed a more retaliatory approach proposed by Michigan Sen. Donald W. Riegle Jr.--just as Riegle was endorsing his candidacy.

“Dukakis is impressive; his people have been here on the ground for weeks,” said Kay Beard, a Wayne County (Detroit) commissioner who is supporting Gephardt.

This state was supposed to be an ace in the hole for Gephardt, whose tough talk on trade helped him win the Iowa caucuses and endeared him to many United Auto Workers union members.

But, after he stumbled on Super Tuesday, Gephardt acknowledged that he was an underdog in Michigan. Not much has changed that assessment in the last week as the candidates have stumped the state from the remote Upper Peninsula to vote-rich Detroit and its suburbs.

Gephardt has moved up in some polls into a strong third place after running more than $300,000 in television ads. And he has had some bad luck at the worst possible time. He gave an impressive speech Thursday on the need for America to be hard-nosed about its position in the world economic market. But that event was overshadowed by a report that he will quit the race if he does not win here.

Although Gephardt himself has said that he has to finish first here to remain credible, he strongly denied that he had made any contingency plan to withdraw.

Meanwhile, it is Jackson who is creating the most excitement. Although his natural base is the two largely black congressional districts in Detroit, he has drawn huge crowds of whites and blacks in rallies outside Detroit.

“Jesse Jackson is an exciting candidate,” Beard said. “He’s talking about a lot of issues that need to be discussed.”

Jackson has also shrewdly played himself off against the better financed and organized Dukakis, saying to a boisterous crowd of more than 1,000 UAW workers the other day: “I don’t have a big engine, but I know the road.”

Jackson reminded the workers that he had stood with strikers in various states over the last two years, and the response again and again from the audience was: “We remember.”

Jackson’s aides say privately that they are convinced he can win here.

Mayor Backs Dukakis

Four years ago, Detroit Mayor Coleman Young, who is black, helped Walter F. Mondale defeat Jackson in the two predominantly black congressional districts. This time, Young has endorsed Dukakis after briefly considering going with Jackson; but the mayor released many of the people in his political organization to work for Jackson if they wished, and many have.

Jackson is spending about $70,000 on television ads, some of which feature his friend Bill Cosby. The other night, in fact, a commercial with Cosby in it ran right after the actor’s highly rated TV show.

Cosby never asked directly for a vote for Jackson; but, after he urged listeners to vote for someone they cared about, there was suddenly a shot of Jackson speaking at the University of Michigan.

Given the large crowds--6,000 at the University of Michigan, 4,000 at Western Michigan University--there is no question that, at least on college campuses, Jackson is drawing more than just black support. But his aides concede that the real question is whether these people will turn out for the caucuses.

One thing working against Jackson is that, for the most part, the caucus sites are not in regular polling places, and their hours--10 a.m. to 4 p.m.--are not normal election hours.

This kind of situation would appear to benefit a candidate with the organization to get people to the caucuses, and that is Dukakis.

The Massachusetts governor, although not as exciting as Jackson, did draw big and enthusiastic crowds at his appearance on the University of Michigan campus in Ann Arbor the other night.

Speaking first in the student union and then on the steps outside, where President John F. Kennedy once announced the creation of the Peace Corps, Dukakis appealed to the idealism in the students, who reponded strongly.

Dukakis also appears to be getting substantial support from union members, some of whom have said that, although they like Jackson and Gephardt, they want to be with a winner--and that Dukakis has that look for them.

Gephardt supporters have charged that Dukakis has attempted to increase his union support in a way that has ugly racial undertones. They contend that some union members in Massachusetts called members in Michigan and told them that a vote for Gephardt was, in the end, really a vote for Jackson.

“I certainly don’t approve of it. I hope it isn’t happening and, if it is, it ought to stop,” Dukakis said.

Gore and Simon have spent most of their time wooing voters in the more remote regions of the state and neither has predicted much of a showing here.

For the two front-runners and the challenging Gephardt, the situation is still unpredictable, according to Richard Wiener, chairman of the Michigan Democratic Party.

“We’ve seen wild swings in many of these contests in the last few days,” Wiener warned.

Staff writers Thomas B. Rosenstiel and Robert Shogan and researcher Leslie Eringaard contributed to this story.

THE MICHIGAN DEMOCRATIC CAUCUSES

THE STATE

Population: 9,145,000 (1986 est.); 70% live in urban areas.

Racial/ethnic makeup: 85% white, 13% black, 1% Latino, 1% Asian.

Economy: auto manufacturing and related industries, agriculture, food processing. Unemployment rate 8.4% (Feb. ‘88).

Major cities: Detroit, 1.2 million; Grand Rapids, 181,000; Lansing (capital), 130,000.

THE CAUCUSES

The caucus process will select 138 of Michigan’s total of 151 delegates to the Democratic National Convention. Ninety delegates will be allocated to presidential candidates based on today’s results from individual congressional districts; candidates getting 15% or more of the vote are eligible for delegates in the district. An additional 48 delegates will be apportioned based on the statewide percentages of the vote. The voting, by secret ballot, will be more like a primary than an Iowa-style caucus, though it is administered by the party, not the state. Any registered voter may participate. Voting places will be open from 10 a.m. to 4 p.m. EST. (Republicans completed their caucuses in January.)