VIEWPOINTS : Up North, Rust Is Showing Through Again : Even Plentiful Jobs and Good Pay Can’t Draw Americans to Cold, Snowy States

With Gov. Michael S. Dukakis promoting the so-called Massachusetts economic miracle as one of the reasons to elect him President of the United States, pundits have been weighing in with their opinions of his role in that success.

The truth, of course, is not as dramatic as either Dukakis supporters or critics would like it. The rapid growth of high-technology industries in Massachusetts actually began in the late 1950s, long before Dukakis became governor, but until the mid-1970s it was hidden because old industries, such as textiles and shoes, were dying at an even faster rate. Once there were practically no more shoe or textile workers to lay off, the boom in new industries that had been there all along became visible.

Nevertheless, Dukakis certainly helped the boom along during his 10 years as governor. Both the educational system for training labor and the state’s infrastructure improved during a period when they were deteriorating elsewhere. Poor government services could have destroyed the boom, but they didn’t. In other words, the governor helped, even if he did not cause the growth.

The most interesting thing about Massachusetts’ now-fading boom, however, is not the role of Dukakis, but the extent to which it strangely reaffirms the existence of the Sun Belt as an economic force. The dampening of the economic upturn in that cold, snowy, cloudy state is further evidence of the hypothesis that the center of American economic activity will gradually move to sunny, warm states simply because that is where people prefer to live.

With the economic decline of Texas and much of the Southwestern United States, the term Sun Belt is used much less today than 10 years ago. The Sun Belt was always less than it seemed. Most of the growth was in three states--California, Texas and Florida--and many Sun Belt states--Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama and Louisiana, for example--never were part of any economic boom.

Traditional economic theories of location revolve around factors that directly affect the cost of production such as raw materials, energy and transportation. But the Sun Belt hypothesis essentially maintains that these traditional location theories are outmoded. It holds that what determines the location of economic activity are not the direct costs of production but worker preferences as to where they would like to live.

With the development of air conditioning to make summers bearable, most Americans simply would rather be in an area with a warm climate. The old factors that led to a rich North and a poor South have been replaced by a different set of factors leading to a rich South and poor North.

Historically, Americans have always moved to where the jobs were. New York, Chicago and Detroit all in their time have been boom cities with thousands of people moving in. Yet no one talked about preference for cold, cloudy weather at the time. Similarly, noticing that millions of people were moving to the South to get jobs did not prove that there was anything special about the Sun Belt.

But Boston proves the existence of the Sun Belt. Initially, Boston thrived because of the unique relationship between technology and the skills of the area’s work force. Boston was and is a relatively cheap place to buy skilled labor for the simple reason that its educational system turns out a very abundant supply.

On the other hand, Boston was and is a very expensive place to buy unskilled labor or raw materials such as energy. Industries that need many unskilled workers or a lot of energy will never be located there. Consequently, microelectronics just happened to be a perfect technology for Boston. It demanded a lot of skilled labor, very little energy and few unskilled workers. What Boston had to offer, microelectronics needed.

Less Than 2% Unemployed

Recently, however, a wrench was thrown into the works. For the first time in American history, there is a region with lots of jobs where Americans are refusing to move.

Unemployment in Eastern Massachusetts appears to be less than 2%, “for hire” signs are up everywhere and even the fast-food restaurants are paying close to $6 per hour. Yet the population of Massachusetts is falling, and Massachusetts is apt to lose a congressman in the next redistricting after the 1990 census. At the same time, cities in California and Florida with much less prosperous economies are growing rapidly.

The Sun Belt is real; something has changed. Americans are no longer willing to move to a cold state even if good jobs are readily available. And the Massachusetts boom has essentially ended in this unwillingness. There are simply no workers to be hired, and any Massachusetts firm wishing to expand must expand elsewhere. Employment has quit growing rapidly because it had to. There are no workers left to be hired.

Unless there is something strangely unattractive about Boston that does not apply to other northern cities (and that seems unlikely since it is widely believed to be one of the most livable of northern cities), we will not in our lifetime again see a rapidly growing northern urban area.

We don’t know how the people will speak concerning Dukakis’ efforts to move south, but they have spoken very clearly when it comes to their own preferences.