Iranian Parliamentary Election May Bring Shift to Left

Against the backdrop of a sudden and violent flare-up in the Iran-Iraq War, Iran is preparing to hold parliamentary elections, and there are signs that the Islamic fundamentalist government may be shifting to the left nine years after coming to power in a popular revolution.

Although more than 100 Iraqi missiles have slammed into Tehran and other cities in the last month, Iran’s conduct of the 7 1/2-year war with Iraq is not an issue in the April 8 elections for the Majlis, or Parliament.

The war, along with the helmsmanship of the Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the 84-year-old cleric who led the revolution that deposed Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi in 1979, have been considered taboo topics in the run-up to the election.

Debate Is Relatively Free

Nonetheless, despite the political restrictions, the Iranian Parliament is far from a rubber-stamp assembly. Debate in the Majlis on a whole range of domestic issues is relatively free, and the assembly frequently criticizes the government.

“When you look at the rest of the Middle East, the Majlis is probably the most independent Parliament in the Islamic world, which is not bad considering the theocratic nature of the regime,” said Gary Sick, an Iran expert in the Jimmy Carter Administration.

The election, which is the third since the revolution, is considered significant because it follows a series of directives from Khomeini that were aimed at clearing a longstanding stalemate between the Majlis and the Council of Guardians, a conservative overseer that had rejected much of the legislation adopted by the reform-minded Parliament.

According to Western analysts, by appearing to support those in the government who favor reform--specifically increased state intervention--Khomeini has set the stage for an apparent shift to the left.

Voters Follow Khomeini’s Lead

First, because Khomeini has publicly supported the concept of state intervention, the voters will tend to elect candidates who also support state intervention.

Since the Majlis also approves ministers in the new Cabinet--last time it rejected the appointment of four nominees--the newly chosen Parliament will shape the new government to conform to Khomeini’s dictates, which will also lend a “leftist” coloring, according to the analysts.

Apart from the war, the future direction of the Iranian government is the hottest political topic in Iran. The election could have longlasting effects on the way the country develops.

The so-called radicals in the government, who generally are led by Prime Minister Hussein Moussavi, have been advocating nationalization of foreign trade, along with sharp government limitations on private sector entrepreneurs. So-called moderates, on the other hand, seek an accommodation with the middle class.

Conservative elements in the Council of Guardians had thwarted efforts by the Majlis to adopt social and economic reforms drafted by the radicals. In an effort to bypass the Guardians, and clearly siding with the radicals, Khomeini in February announced the appointment of a special assembly to resolve the differences between the Majlis and Council of Guardians.

The assembly will consist of the conservative theologians of the council and Moussavi; Parliament Speaker Hashemi Rafsanjani; President Ali Khamenei; the Ayatollah Abdulkarim Moussavi Ardabili, chief justice of Supreme Court, and Prosecutor General Moussavi Khoeini. Khomeini’s secretary is also taking part in the assembly, and his son will act as observer.

A recent Tehran Radio commentary suggested that the appointment of the assembly will have removed the “fundamental obstacles” standing in the way of the adoption of the radical reforms.

Western analysts believe that moderates in the government such as Rafsanjani suffered a loss of prestige last year, when the United States stepped up its role in the Persian Gulf and came into increasing confrontation with Iran.

As the result, hard-liners have emerged from the shadows, notably the minister of interior, Ali Akbar Mohtashami, one of the staunchest opponents of the United States in the regime.

Mohtashami, who reportedly lost a hand to a letter bomb, served as ambassador to Syria, where Western analysts believe he played a key role in the export of the Iranian revolution to Lebanon and directed the taking of foreign hostages.

Mohtashami is wielding considerable influence in the current election campaign, since the Interior Ministry must approve the list of candidates. Iran abolished its last political party, the Islamic Republic Party, last year.

“Mohtashami is emerging as the main challenger to Rafsanjani,” said one Western diplomat in the gulf. “In my opinion, he may be the power to watch in Iran.”