Private Misgivings : Jackson Poses a Dilemma for Party Leaders

After striving for three years to regain the presidency by recapturing the loyalty of white voters, Democratic leaders now fear their cherished dream of a party rebirth is threatening to turn into a nightmare.

Instead of producing the Middle America champion they sought, their nominating process so far has produced as its most compelling figure the Rev. Jesse Jackson, arguably the most liberal candidate in the field.

And while Jackson is demonstrating increasing ability to draw the votes of white liberals in primaries and caucuses, many party leaders fear he would have little or no chance of gaining the backing of the mass of middle-class and blue-collar whites who deserted the party in droves for Ronald Reagan--just the voters the Democrats must get to regain the White House.

It is a dilemma for which critics say the party can in large measure blame its own excessive reaction to the errors and defeats of the Democratic past, and the inability or unwillingness of Jackson’s opponents to develop a message that can compete with his visceral populist appeal.

The massive Super Tuesday primary, created by the party leaders to foster the nomination of a centrist candidate, was an apparent failure. And the campaigns of Massachusetts Gov. Michael S. Dukakis, Tennessee Sen. Albert Gore Jr. and Illinois Sen. Paul Simon so far have accrued little of the committed, excited support that energizes a strong nominating drive.

Of this picture of ineffectual candidacies and poor party planning, former party activist and Jimmy Carter Administration official Hodding Carter III says: “The Democratic Party is undergoing a great failure of nerve on one hand and intellect on the other.”

Into the gap has driven Jackson, who, with the nominating contest just past its mid-point, has so far emerged as the defining force of the campaign.

What is more, here in Wisconsin, a poll in Sunday’s Milwaukee Journal showed Jackson less than 10 points behind Dukakis and capturing a significant portion of the white vote. If Jackson runs strongly in Wisconsin, where the electorate is 95% white, it would strengthen his argument that he can indeed attract enough white support to be nominated--and ultimately elected.

Private Concerns

But any gains Jackson makes in Wisconsin’s primary voting Tuesday may only underscore the conundrum he represents to party leaders. Because of the sensitivities involved, many Democrats are reluctant to publicly discuss their apprehensions about the prospect of a Jackson candidacy, but the concerns expressed privately are widespread.

There is the problem of racism, which Americans have been grappling with for more than two centuries with only mixed success. Many Democratic leaders fear that latent bigotry will simply keep many whites from voting for Jackson in the general election.

And his policy proposals, including dramatic cuts in defense spending and a realignment of American foreign policy, appear to many critics to go well beyond the American mainstream.

“Never mind his race,” gloats Republican National Chairman Frank J. Fahrenkopf Jr. about the prospect of Jackson’s becoming the Democratic standard bearer: “His domestic and foreign policy views would make him the most radical candidate in history.”

On the other hand, Democratic leaders fear that by opposing Jackson’s candidacy or striving to limit his influence they would antagonize his supporters among the blacks and white liberals who make up the Democrat base, violate the party’s fundamental principles and cause it immeasurable public shame.

“I think it’s a mess--it’s a shambles,” said one liberal Northeastern Democratic congressman of the current state of the Democratic competition.

The Democrats came to this point while trying to reverse a four-decade trend.

In the 10 presidential elections since Franklin D. Roosevelt’s fourth and last term in 1944, Democrats received more than 50% of the white vote only once--in 1964, when Democratic President Lyndon B. Johnson trounced Republican Sen. Barry Goldwater. And in the five elections since 1964, only one Democrat, Jimmy Carter in 1976, carried more than 40% of the white vote and became the only Democratic to win any of those five elections.

Mondale Defeat

The culmination of this disastrous trend for Democrats came in 1984, when Walter F. Mondale carried only 36% of the white vote and one state--his own Minnesota.

Understandably shaken by these results, the Democratic Party leadership went though a long post-election period of soul searching and brainstorming. The upshot was the creation of the Super Tuesday primary, covering Democrats in 14 Southern and Border states.

It was designed to help the cause of a candidate who would do well in the South in November. It did help Gore, whose candidacy was designed to exploit his regional roots. But it also gave a big boost to the best-known candidate, Jackson, and the best-financed, Dukakis, though either would arguably have trouble winning support from white Southerners in November.

“There was enormous naivete demonstrated there by (former Virginia Gov.) Chuck Robb and the others who pushed that thing through,” said William Carrick, campaign manager for Missouri Rep. Richard A. Gephardt, whose candidacy was mortally wounded by the Super Tuesday results.

Critics of Super Tuesday contend that the creation of the mega-primary made it harder for lesser-known and lesser-financed candidates to reach voters outside the cadre of liberal activists who normally take part in Democratic primaries.

Meanwhile, the appeals of the candidates who survived Super Tuesday shaped up in a way that gave Jackson another opportunity to forge his front-running status.

Dukakis, relying on his extensive organization, avoided controversy and stressed instead the executive experience he had gained and the managerial skill he had demonstrated as a third-term governor of his state.

Gore’s message shifted, possibly blurring his impression among voters. Initially stressing his hawkish views on defense policies, Gore recently depicted himself as the advocate of working people, borrowing heavily from Gephardt’s populist rhetoric.

Simon continued to stress his old-line liberalism, but failed to demonstrate the kind of appeal that could make him a serious contender.

Reaching Out

At the same time, Jackson was reaching out.

“He’s supporting the workers,” said Chester Suidzenski of Cudahy, Wis., an aerospace worker impressed by Jackson’s appearance on behalf of employees in a strikebound meatpacking plant in that Milwaukee suburb. As for the rest of the candidates, says Suidzenski, “you’ve seen one, you’ve seen them all.”

Jackson has also been relatively free from attack by his white rivals. Gore has criticized Jackson for his lack of foreign policy experience and for his views on Mideast policy, but Dukakis, whose attacks on Gephardt helped drive him out of the race, has avoided any harsh words for Jackson. Indeed, last week, when he was asked to say how he was better qualified than Jackson for the presidency, he refused to answer.

Asked about his unwillingness to criticize Jackson, Dukakis indicated that he was concerned such criticism might hurt his chances as the Democratic nominee running against Vice President George Bush in the fall. “I want to win the nomination and unite my party at the same time,” he said.

Some believe that by failing to challenge Jackson on his positions, Dukakis is doing both himself and Jackson a disservice. “The greatest form of racism is to patronize someone because they are black,” says Timothy Hagen, Cuyahoga County (Cleveland) commissioner and Ohio chairman for the campaign of Simon.

“Dukakis is failing to address the issue honestly,” said Hagen, who ran the Ohio campaigns for Massachusetts Sen. Edward M. Kennedy in 1980 and Mondale in 1984. “Somebody ought to give him some backbone so he can do it right. All white males want to see is that you treat blacks equally. White males want to see that a leader is being straight with them by treating blacks the same way he treats whites.”

Until such time, the race may be Jackson Action vs. Dukakis Bland.

Hodding Carter contends that the normally low-keyed governor needs to demonstrate some of the proverbial fire in the gut. If Dukakis were to ask his advice, Carter said, he would tell him: “If you have any real strong feelings about something, then now is the time to express them.”