Analysis : Questions Emerge in Democratic Race : Dukakis Moves Closer but Hurdles Lie Ahead

By his handsome victory in the Wisconsin primary, Michael S. Dukakis appears to have moved a step closer to the inevitability his admirers have long claimed for his Democratic presidential candidacy.

But the Massachusetts governor has taken this step before--and then taken one or two steps backward. And even those who consider him far and away the most likely 1988 Democratic nominee acknowledged Wednesday that several hurdles lie ahead, most notably the April 19 New York primary, over which he could easily stumble.

In short, for all the credit he earned by getting almost as many votes in this hotly contested primary as the Rev. Jesse Jackson, Tennessee Sen. Albert Gore Jr. and Illinois Sen. Paul Simon combined, Dukakis still has something to prove.

“I think he’s on the verge of putting together some compelling victories,” says Brad Johnson, a senior adviser to New York Gov. Mario M. Cuomo, who has so far remained steadfastly neutral in the race. But Johnson points out those triumphs remain to be won.

Meanwhile, he credits Jackson with an impressive performance in getting roughly 25% of the white vote here in Wisconsin. Noting that the black vote in New York is likely to be several times larger than it was in Wisconsin, Johnson said: “If Jackson can get the same percentage of the white vote in New York, he could win.” Blacks are 12% of the voting age population in New York, compared to 3% in Wisconsin.

One of the problems Dukakis faces in New York is the perception that his nomination is unavoidable. In this turbulent political year, Democratic voters seem unwilling to close off the competition by putting any candidate over the top.

Indeed, some feel that this unsettled attitude hurt Jackson here in Wisconsin, where many thought he had a good chance of defeating Dukakis. “Every time one of these guys seems about to get anointed, they get beat,” Jackson’s chief delegate hunter, Steve Cobble, said ruefully.

Three key questions about the future of the Democratic race emerge from the Wisconsin returns: Will the message that helped Dukakis win here work elsewhere? Can Jackson establish credibility with white voters as a serious presidential candidate? Can Gore keep his candidacy alive after having gone a month without a primary victory?

Here is a closer look at these issues:

--Dukakis’ message. The governor himself was very pleased with his ability to get working-class and lower middle-class votes here, an objective that has eluded him in the past. (NBC’s exit polls showed that Dukakis was drawing 47% of the vote from those earning less than $20,000 a year.) “The margin should totally erase doubts that we can’t connect with blue-collar workers,” Dukakis said.

Some think his success was due to a new stump talk, which may come to be referred to as “the Great Builder speech.” In this, Dukakis, more than he had in the past, tries to relate his much-vaunted experience as governor to the problems he would face as President. “I don’t expect to be known as the Great Communicator,” Dukakis declared. “I want to be known as a Great Builder.

Favors Government Reform

“Some people want to build more missiles; I want to build minds,” he says. “They want to rip our government apart and make it fail. I want to reform it and make it work for the people.”

The new approach “goes back to an old argument in the campaign,” said Paul Tully, who formerly served as Dukakis’ national political director. Those who believed Dukakis needed to say more than he was saying, as Tully recalled it, argued “that it’s not enough to say what your record is, you have to give the voters a context for looking at your experience.”

The context, Tully explained, is the idea of Dukakis as a builder, though even Tully acknowledges that the candidate’s use of this theme may strike some as limited. “He ain’t talking about building the Golden Gate bridge,” Tully said. “But he is talking about building.”

But the question remains whether Dukakis can continue to evolve and grow by reaching inside himself as the campaign goes on. “This is something he has never had to do before, to react emotionally to voters,” said Martin Linksy, a lecturer in public policy at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, who has known Dukakis since his political career began. “The test is whether he can do it now.”

--Jackson’s credibility. Wisconsin was the first state where Jackson faced an expectations problem, a mark of his rising status in the 1988 nomination contest. His landslide victory in Michigan, his strong overall performance in other states and his strong showing in pre-election polls in this state all combined to set a high standard that, it turned out, the candidate could not meet.

Thus, Jackson’s aides complained, his ability to get 25% of the white vote here, instead of being hailed as a remarkable achievement, was dismissed as disappointing.

Mines Vein of Discontent

But there were reasons for these expectations. Jackson had mined the vein of labor discontent in this state diligently, building up a store of good will with white working-class voters. And the big crowds that often greeted him were taken as a likely sign of a big vote. Another factor, campaign aides observed, was that in a state with a small black population the potential for racial animosity was minimal.

Some analysts believe Jackson was hurt by his controversial letter to Panamanian strongman Manuel A. Noriega, urging him to end the suffering there, presumably by stepping aside. The letter drew criticism from the State Department and other candidates as interfering in a delicate foreign matter.

Others analysts think the difference between Jackson’s anticipated vote and the real numbers was broader and more serious for his future hopes.

“I believe there was a turning away from Jackson to Dukakis by people who were going to support Jackson as a protest vote,” said Robert Friebert, a long-time Democratic activist in Wisconsin who co-chaired the Gore campaign and had expected Jackson to win the primary. As Jackson’s chances of winning seemed to grow stronger, Friebert said, “many of his voters realized there is a difference between sending a message and being President of the United States.”

Serious View of Jackson

Jackson’s advisers reject the argument that because of his lack of government experience, and his ultra-liberal views, if not his race, Jackson can’t survive consideration as a serious presidential candidate.

Instead, they argue that Jackson will continue to grow stronger as the campaign goes on, with his appeal reaching an apogee in the California primary June 7. “We have not picked any individual contest and said: ‘This is the day we are going to win,’ ” said Jackson aide Cobble. “This is a process in which we want the trend in the white vote for Jackson to increase, and it is increasing.”

--Gore’s viability. The Wisconsin results left open whether Gore can make a strong enough showing in New York to survive that primary and become a major factor in the race. His state chairman, Friebert, said that Gore was hurt here by people who began to accept the contention of the Dukakis campaign that this was basically a two-man race between Dukakis and Jackson.

The way to combat the two-man race argument, which the Dukakis campaign can be expected to emphasize increasingly, is “to surprise everybody with a victory somewhere,” said Friebert, adding, “but frankly I don’t know where.”

Gore Lays Groundwork

Gore’s strategists have selected New York as the site if not for a victory, at least for a strong showing. And the senator sought to lay some groundwork there last week with the city’s big Jewish population by criticizing Jackson on Middle East policy.

Certainly there is plenty of resentment of Jackson among Jews. One private survey shows more than 75% of Jewish voters in New York have a negative view of Jackson, according to one well-placed party source.

But it is questionable whether attacking Jackson can build positive support for Gore. “He’s not coming in with any momentum, and he has been stronger in criticizing other candidates than he has in spelling out his own views,” said one aide to Gov. Cuomo who preferred not to be identified.

For their part, Gore aides point out that the senator built up his support base here from the low single digits to 17% in the space of a couple of weeks and maintain they can do much the same in New York.

‘Distinctive Positions’

“Al represents very distinctive positions on the issues and a different level of experience from the other candidates,” said Gore’s deputy campaign manager, Larry Harrington, referring to Gore’s pro-Israel stand on the Mideast and the fact that unlike Jackson and Dukakis, Gore has served in the federal government. “And he’s going to be fleshing out these differences as the campaign goes on,” Harrington added.

Asked about published reports that Gore has committed to spend at least $1 million on television advertising through media consultant David Garth, Harrington said: “We’ll spend what it takes to do a decent campaign.”

DELEGATES’ PRESIDENTIAL PREFERENCES Republicans 1,139 delegates needed to secure nomination Bush: 888 Uncommitted: 232 Robertson: 17 Democrats 2,081 delegates needed to secure nomination Dukakis: 740.55 Jackson: 704.55 Gore: 394.8 Simon: 170.5 Uncommitted: 513.6 Source: Associated Press