Gains by Gore Trim Dukakis’ Lead Over Jackson in Today’s N.Y. Vote, Polls Show

New York Democrats go to the polls today to choose among their presidential candidates, with opinion surveys favoring Massachusetts Gov. Michael S. Dukakis to win this primary and thereby gain a decisive advantage over his rivals.

But some polls show Dukakis’ lead over the Rev. Jesse Jackson narrowing to fewer than 10 points, because of gains by Tennessee Sen. Albert Gore Jr., who still appears to be far behind in most polls.

And analysts say that a low turnout among white Roman Catholic voters, most of whom favor Dukakis, could lead to an upset victory for Jackson, because he can count on a huge outpouring of black supporters. Polls also indicate that Jackson might get 15% or more of the white vote, mostly from union members and liberals.

Balance of Power

Polling shows that white Catholics have not been nearly as caught up in the campaign as New York’s blacks and Jews, who are sharply divided over Jackson’s candidacy. But white Catholics are the biggest single group in the Democratic electorate and appear to hold the balance of power in today’s balloting.

“If they vote, it’s Wisconsin,” said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute poll, referring to Dukakis’ big victory over Jackson on April 5. “But if they stay home,” he said, “it’s Michigan,” referring to the March 26 balloting in that state where Jackson trounced Dukakis by 2 to 1.

Dukakis strategists seemed confident that their candidate, who already leads Jackson in the contest for national convention delegates, will come in first here, taking most of New York’s 255-delegate contingent to the Atlanta convention, second in size only to California’s.

“We’ve done everything we thought we had to do here,” said Paul Bograd, director of Dukakis’ campaign in New York.

Virtual Tie in City

The latest Gallup Poll, which contacted more than 3,000 voters over the weekend, showed Dukakis leading Jackson 45% to 32%, with Gore at 10%. Gallup agreed with Miringoff that turnout among white voters will be the key to the outcome, noting that Jackson is virtually tied with Dukakis in New York City, but that Dukakis is leading Jackson in the suburbs and Upstate New York by 3 to 1.

If Dukakis can win with 45% or more of the vote, Gore’s campaign would be in deep trouble. That high a vote share for Dukakis would probably mean that Gore’s own share would be below 20%, which is the threshold he must reach to retain eligibility for federal matching funds. He could still remain eligible by getting 20% of the vote in next week’s Pennsylvania primary, but most professionals believe that Gore needs a strong finish in New York to remain credible as a presidential contender.

In turn, Gore’s troubles could translate into troubles for Jackson, should Gore decide to quit the race. That would leave Jackson in the difficult position of confronting Dukakis in one-on-one competition in the remaining contests, nearly all of which take place in states with far smaller minority populations than New York has.

Emotional Issue

Dukakis’ aides credit his lead in the polls to his efforts to avoid getting caught up in the arguments over U.S. Mideast policy, which have been the most emotional issue in the campaign and which have stirred intense antagonism to Jackson among many Jews.

“We were able to be disciplined and to get our message through about the economy and drugs,” said Bograd, who contended that Dukakis, as a Greek-American, was counting on his “cultural” affinity with New York’s Catholics--themselves members of many different ethnic groups--to put him over the top.

Bograd also said that his candidate probably would be helped by recent headlines, such as the one on the front page of Sunday’s New York News, which described the primary contest as “Too Close to Call,” and the one in Monday’s New York Post, which said: “Jesse Closing the Gap,” because they tend to heighten interest in the race and thus increase turnout.

Multiple Slates

The Jackson forces were also trying to boost turnout, though they were concentrating their efforts in the congressional districts with the heaviest black population. In several such districts where Jackson ran well in the 1984 primary, the Jackson campaign is backing multiple slates of delegates pledged to Jackson. The idea, according to Hulbert James, state coordinator of the Jackson campaign, is that each of the individual delegate candidates will work hard to get out voters who will back their candidacies, and Jackson’s too.

If this strategy works, Jackson’s statewide vote will increase and help him get a larger share of the convention delegates who are picked at large.

James’ problem is that he had counted on Jackson opposing at least one other candidate besides Gore and Dukakis. Instead, there is only Gore to cut into Dukakis’ share of the white vote, which makes it more difficult for Jackson’s base of black and liberal white voters to win.

Pivotal to Outcome

Gore’s candidacy has been pivotal to the outcome of this primary from the beginning. And the polls indicate that he will have trouble getting the 20% to 25% of the vote many believe he needs to prevent a Dukakis victory.

One of Gore’s difficulties is that some voters who might otherwise support him are strongly opposed to Jackson and fear that a vote for Gore might bring about a Jackson victory, as indeed it might. To discourage voters from supporting Dukakis, instead of Gore, merely to prevent a Jackson victory, New York Mayor Edward I. Koch, who endorsed Gore, has been urging voters in a television commercial: “Don’t waste your vote being negative. Vote positive. Vote for Al Gore.”

On the Republican side, Vice President George Bush faces only token opposition from former religious broadcaster Pat Robertson, who has conceded that Bush will win the nomination.

Final day of New York campaigning. Page 18.

THE NEW YORK PRIMARY

THE STATE

Population: 17.8 million (1986 est.)

Racial/ethnic makeup: 78% white, 12% black, 8% Latino, 2% Asian.

Economy: Finance, communications and related services; diversified manufacturing; publishing; transportation and shipping, tourism. Unemployment rate (March ‘88), 3.8%.

Major cities: New York, 7.1 million; Buffalo, 355,000; Rochester, 240,000; Albany (capital) 101,000.

THE PRIMARY

At stake in today’s election are 255 delegates to the Democratic National Convention and 102 to the Republican convention. For the Democrats, 167 delegates will be allocated to presidential candidates in proportion to the primary vote in the state’s 34 congressional districts. Any candidate getting 15% or more of the vote in a congressional district is entitled to at least one delegate, and the winner in each district gets one “bonus” delegate. The remaining 88 at-large delegates will be allocated in proportion to the statewide vote. GOP voters will elect, in each congressional district, slates of delegates who will be named on the ballot along with the candidate they represent.

1984 RESULTS

As in 1984, the Republican primary is essentially uncontested while the Democratic race contains three surviving major candidates. The 1984 Democratic primary was won by Walter F. Mondale, with 45% of the vote, followed by Gary Hart with 27% and Jesse Jackson with 26%.