Dukakis Leads Jackson in N.Y. : Exit Polls Indicate Governor Will Win, Gore Will Finish Far Back

Massachusetts Gov. Michael S. Dukakis led the Rev. Jesse Jackson in early returns from New York’s Democratic presidential primary Tuesday, with exit polls indicating that Dukakis will finish first and capture most of the state’s delegation to the party’s national convention.

Tennessee Sen. Albert Gore Jr. will end up a distant third, according to exit polls conducted by The Times and the television networks. And if the final returns bear out the poll results, Gore will likely face pressure to drop out of the contest for the Democratic nomination, leaving the field to Dukakis and Jackson.

Just after the polls closed at 9 p.m., all three television networks projected that Dukakis would win the primary.

With 51% of the state’s precincts reporting, many of them in Upstate and suburban areas considered favorable to Dukakis, Dukakis had 62% of the vote, compared to 23% for Jackson and 12% for Gore.

Bush Wins Easily

Vice President George Bush won the Republican primary easily, running basically unopposed.

Jackson’s candidacy appeared to be the dominant issue in the campaign, according to the Times exit poll. Jackson was viewed favorably by 52% of the voters interviewed and unfavorably by 34%, but those with an unfavorable view voted overwhelmingly for Dukakis over Jackson.

The civil rights leader appeared likely to carry New York City with about 60% of the vote, according to the Times exit poll. But his strength in the city was expected to be offset by a strong Dukakis vote in the suburbs and Upstate New York. The poll also showed Jackson getting more than 90% of the black vote and about 15% of the white vote statewide.

Dukakis was getting nearly 70% of the white Roman Catholic vote, 60% of the white Protestant vote and nearly 80% of the Jewish vote.

Gore, who campaigned hard for Jewish votes and was endorsed by New York Mayor Edward I. Koch, was getting about 15% of that vote in the Times exit poll. This was about 5% more than Jackson, whose candidacy caused deep concern among many Jews.

Dukakis himself made no claim of victory as the first returns came in. But his campaign chairman and close friend, Paul Brountas, was already looking ahead to the future contests. “We want to wrap this (nomination) up,” he told a reporter. “We want to win.”

Caution on Overconfidence

But Brountas cautioned against overconfidence in the remaining contests, which include primaries in Pennsylvania on April 26, Ohio and Indiana on May 3 and California and New Jersey on June 7. “I think it would be a mistake to say after we win New York that it will be all downhill,” he said.

A victory here would have important practical and symbolic implications for Dukakis’ candidacy. Winning most of the state’s 255-member convention delegation, second in size only to California’s, would extend Dukakis’ delegate lead over Jackson. Before the polls closed in New York, Dukakis had 880 delegates to 745 for Jackson and 419 for Gore, according to the Associated Press.

And his success here would provide an important psychological boost to his chances of gaining the backing of Democratic “super delegates,” the elected officials and party leaders free to back whichever candidate they choose.

Although the two-week campaign here stirred bitter feelings, largely because of Mayor Koch’s attacks on Jackson, Dukakis himself has refrained from such tactics. And assuming victory here, Brountas said Dukakis would not seek to confront Jackson directly. “I don’t think he would do that now,” he said, explaining that such tactics would be “divisive” and “negative.”

From its start two weeks ago in the wake of Dukakis’ big victory in Wisconsin, the primary campaign in New York confronted the three presidential contenders with problems in some ways more difficult than any they had faced since the long struggle for the nomination got under way.

The clamorous and rancorous political environment in New York, particularly here in the city where two-thirds of the state’s Democratic voters live, made it hard for them to establish their own identities and frame their individual messages to the electorate. And so did the style and personality of the state party’s two most prominent leaders, Mayor Koch and Gov. Mario M. Cuomo.

The New York campaign brought the party face to face with its past, and served to remind the candidates of the need to chart a different course for the future.

More Conspicuous

The ethnic groups and organized special interests that have been the bulwarks of the party in its past triumphs seemed more conspicuous here than anywhere else because of their size and/or assertiveness.

Also conspicuous were the differences between them, which often seemed to overshadow the common bonds that in years gone by had made them a coherent and potent force.

Racial tensions had been running high here long before the presidential campaign got under way, in part as the result of the much-publicized violence perpetrated by a gang of whites against black victims in Howard Beach in 1986. These feelings presented an obstacle for Jackson, the first black in American political history to make a strong bid for the presidency, as he sought to win the white support he needed for success in this state.

Jewish Resentment

Jackson’s task was made more difficult by resentment in the Jewish community over his endorsement of a Palestinian state, his past embrace of Palestine Liberation Organization leader Yasser Arafat and his 1984 private reference to New York as “Hymietown,” for which Jackson has repeatedly apologized.

Indeed, Jewish concern with U.S. policy toward the Arab states and Israel seemed a preoccupation for all the candidates. While Jackson sought to assuage Jewish concerns by professing even-handedness, Gore and Dukakis both were supportive of Israel in the face of criticism of its government’s handling of the rioting on the West Bank.

Meanwhile, the negative Jewish feelings toward Jackson, who aroused fervent support among most blacks in New York, served to intensify hard feelings between these two groups.

Feminist Critic

Other forces added to the din, including Latinos, the elderly, gays and feminists. One Dukakis aide, who specializes in dealing with constituency groups, was troubled that after Dukakis had promised his support for such feminist issues as child care and pay equity during the course of his standard stump speech, a leader of the feminist group he was addressing complained that he did not deliver a special speech, tailored for that audience.

One reason these groups seemed so aggressive in New York was that they are forced to compete with each other for the attention of candidates and concessions from governments. Beyond that, the conditions of urban life that are just problems in other cities seem like crises here.

The city has the biggest caseload of AIDS in the country, its drug traffickers have slain two police officers in recent months and its infrastructure has eroded to the point where it endangers life and limb.

Bridge Closure

A week before the vote, the city was forced to close the aging Williamsburg Bridge on safety grounds, thus making it harder than ever for New Yorkers commuting to jobs in Manhattan to get across the East River.

It was reflective of the harsh political climate of this primary campaign that when Jackson sought to use the bridge as a symbol of the city’s problems by leading a march across it, Mayor Koch attacked Jackson for passing up a “Salute to Israel” parade that was held at the same time.

Koch charged that by passing up the parade, Jackson had displayed “contempt and arrogance.” Jackson responded that Koch’s tactics diverted attention from the city’s real problems and said that not until he came to New York had he faced what he called “a race or religious litmus test.”

Gore, whose candidacy Koch had endorsed, made a point of stating that the mayor was speaking for himself.

Cuomo Gets Attention

As for Cuomo, Koch’s longtime adversary in New York politics, his comments were not nearly as inflammatory as the mayor’s. But he got just about as much attention for himself by not endorsing anyone as Koch did by backing Gore.

Although the governor ostensibly took himself out of contention for the nomination by finally declaring that he would not accept a draft, he made himself a distracting factor in the campaign by providing a sort of running commentary on the performance of the candidates.

The candidates, who had not engaged in a full-dress debate since before the March 8 Super Tuesday primaries, had no less than four such confrontations here, all of them televised.

These events produced some disagreements: Jackson advocated shipping arms to the “front-line” African states bordering on South Africa, while Gore and Dukakis were in opposition. Gore charged that Dukakis’ reluctance to promise increased spending for the federal war on drugs was shortsighted.

Few Basic Differences

But there seemed to be few fundamental differences on policy grounds for the candidates to argue about. Gore sought to use the debates to embarrass Dukakis over what Gore contended was a reckless commitment by Dukakis that he would use nuclear weapons in the event of a Soviet invasion of Western Europe.

But Dukakis aides believed that their candidate had put that matter to rest by bringing up a statement by Gore that indicated that the senator believed that King Khaled of Saudi Arabia was still on the throne, though he had in fact died in 1982.