Jackson Election Role Held Pivotal for Party : Some Democrats Fear Impact on White Vote

Despite lingering fears among Democratic strategists that the Rev. Jesse Jackson could turn out to be a spoiler in the November election, some prominent Democrats are expressing confidence that he will play a crucial role in an all-out effort to help the party win the presidency.

“He’s a loyal Democrat, and I am convinced that regardless of how the Democratic convention turns out, he’ll play a constructive role,” former President Jimmy Carter declared in an interview last week.

And Atlanta Mayor Andrew Young, like Carter a longtime acquaintance of Jackson, predicted he will be “an enthusiastic supporter” of the party nominee.

Yet no matter how conciliatory Jackson turns out to be, many other prominent Democrats are privately haunted by fears that his high-profile quest for the Democratic presidential nomination could prove disastrous for the party in November.

The great risk identified by these Democratic strategists is that, while the party must have black support to win, Jackson’s strikingly successful and much-publicized role in the 1988 contest could undermine efforts to win back the allegiance of white voters who have repeatedly deserted the Democrats and doomed their presidential candidates over the last 40 years.

“This is really what the Democratic Party has been fighting for the last half-century--trying to hold white voters while reaching out to the concerns of blacks and other minorities,” said a senior Democratic leader who has long struggled with the problem first-hand from his border-state constituents.

Underlining this concern are what, to Democrats, are some somber election statistics:

In the 10 presidential elections since 1944, when Franklin D. Roosevelt won his fourth term, no Democratic presidential candidate has received a majority of the white votes cast except Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, when he buried Barry Goldwater.

Some Fear Backlash

With these dismal results in mind, some Democratic strategists, who decline to be identified for fear of being labeled racists, worry that Jackson’s candidacy may produce a backlash among white voters in November.

Discussing the problem that has evolved for Democratic candidates over the last four decades, Harry McPherson, who served as an aide to Lyndon Johnson, said recently:

“Our economic legislation reached out to help people of all kinds, particularly the non-rich. Our social legislation--civil rights and education--was meant to empower new groups, the women’s movement, the gay rights group, and so on.”

The trouble, he suggested, was that giving to these groups seemed to mean taking away from another group: white middle-class Americans, especially males.

“These men were the original stockholders in this country,” McPherson said. “And to them, the Democratic Party was in effect watering the stock.”

Dukakis Seen as Nominee

As the 1988 nominating process moves toward its final phases, Jackson and Massachusetts Gov. Michael S. Dukakis are the only survivors in the quest for the Democratic nomination, and Dukakis, leading in delegates and favored in the remaining primaries, is now widely viewed as the party’s likely nominee.

If he is to win in November, he must get more of the white vote than most recent Democratic nominees have attained.

The greatest threat to achieving that goal would arise if Jackson and his advisers should exert intense pressure on Dukakis to select Jackson as his running mate. That could put the governor in a no-win situation: Selecting Jackson could alienate the white voters McPherson refers to; passing over Jackson could alienate blacks who felt Jackson had earned the right to a place on the ticket.

Jackson has left the door open to the possibility of running as the vice presidential nominee. Gerald F. Austin, his campaign manager, has said that Dukakis should consider selecting Jackson and that Jackson should accept if asked.

Carter and Young, among others, discount that possibility.

Could Be Deciding Factor

They say Jackson has run a savvy and responsible campaign for the party’s nomination and could be the deciding factor for the Democrats in what many political analysts believe could be a close election.

“I don’t have the feeling some have expressed that Jesse will be a destructive factor for the Democrats,” Carter told The Times in an interview at his presidential library in Atlanta. “He’s a loyal Democrat, and I am convinced that regardless of how the Democratic convention turns out, he’ll play a constructive role.

“If he doesn’t,” Carter acknowledged, “the party could be severely handicapped in the election.”

Young agreed Jackson would play a positive role as long as he believed the party had treated him fairly. “It’s very much in his interest to maintain the respect he has earned and enjoyed in the campaign,” Young said.

Another adviser, Georgia banker Bert Lance, said Jackson’s “greatest interest now is the well-being of the Democratic Party.” He suggested that because of Jackson’s relative youth--he is 46--and his plans for a political future, he would subordinate any personal interest in being on the ticket to the goal of increasing the Democrats’ chances of winning in November.

“We got a saying,” said Lance, who served as Carter’s budget director. “Long-term gain, short-term pain.”

Believes He Has Future

Robert G. Beckel, a Washington political consultant who served as Vice President Walter F. Mondale’s liaison to the Jackson campaign in 1984, says Jackson will be a positive force in the general election because he believes he has a future in the Democratic Party and can run for President again.

“He doesn’t want them to hang a loss around him and doesn’t want to be accused of causing a rift in the party,” Beckel said.

Mondale and some of his supporters felt that Jackson, although he campaigned for the Democratic ticket in 1984, was less than enthusiastic and not entirely positive in his approach.

Mondale declined to discuss his feelings about the matter except to say: “I accorded Jesse Jackson dignity, and it was not fully reciprocated.”

The Mondale forces still recall a meeting in Minneapolis just before the Republican convention, when Jackson and other black leaders berated Mondale for not having more blacks in his campaign.

Recalls ‘Intense’ Meeting

The Minneapolis meeting was “intense and unpleasant” and Jackson and other black leaders “beat up” on Mondale, according to his aides. “Based on his (Mondale’s) record on civil rights and relations with blacks, it was unfair,” said Michael Berman, a Mondale campaign aide.

Nevertheless, Jackson stumped for Mondale in a chartered jet supplied by the Mondale campaign, and the Democratic nominee polled more than 90% of the black vote.

Some Democrats believe Jackson’s presence on the ticket in 1988 could cost the Democrats not only the presidency but seats in the House and Senate.

“The main fear of my colleagues is a Dukakis-Jackson ticket,” said a leading Southern congressman who asked not to be named. “We lost five seats when Fritz Mondale put a woman (former Rep. Geraldine A. Ferraro of New York) on the ticket in 1984, and we’d lose five or more with Jackson on the ticket.”

Another Democratic strategist, a key Mondale aide in 1984, said: “People don’t want to talk publicly about it, but they’re afraid to death that if Jesse’s on the ticket, the ticket will lose and lose big. That may or may not be true, but it’s everybody’s assumption.

“And race aside, it’s where Jesse is on a lot of issues that could cause problems. Mondale lost big in ‘84, and there’s no reason to believe that Jackson, holding even more liberal positions, would do anything but hurt the ticket.”

Could Pose a Problem

Mondale himself said that because some voters had “hang-ups” about voting for blacks or women, the presence of either on a national ticket could pose a problem.

“I hope Jesse is helping us move toward a more mature position where we discuss issues and not a candidate’s race,” Mondale said. But he added: “We’re not there yet. Some people will still vote against Jesse because he’s black, and some will vote for him because he’s black.”

Mondale said that in 1984, when he picked Ferraro to be his running mate, he did not feel compelled to name a woman even though “the fever that built for selecting a woman was higher then than it is now. And as our campaign went on, it became obvious we still have a lot of hang-ups about electing a woman to that high position, I’m afraid to say.”

Both Carter and Mondale stressed that the party’s presidential nominee should be given wide latitude in selecting a running mate.

Must Supplement Strength

“It’s almost like getting married,” Mondale said. “There has to be trust and confidence, and the candidate has to move in a way that supplements his strength and helps where he’s vulnerable.”

Jackson himself has said it is up to the Democratic nominee to make his own choice. And some Democrats say he realizes it would be politically unwise to have two liberals--Dukakis and himself--on the ticket.

“Jackson knows that Dukakis has to go to a conservative and/or Southerner like (John F.) Kennedy did in 1960,” said House Majority Whip Tony Coelho (D-Merced). “But he does feel he has brought a lot into the Democratic process and needs to have his concerns addressed. If I were the nominee, I would offer him the role of drug czar with Cabinet rank.”

Political writer Robert Shogan contributed to this story.