Rough Campaign Over, S. Koreans Elect Assembly Today

At a recent rally here for seven National Assembly candidates, one of the legislative hopefuls began his speech by declaring: “All those who were mobilized to come here with payments of 10,000 won or 20,000 won (about $13.50 or $27) may now leave.”

No one left, but nearly everyone in the crowd of about 30,000 laughed.

So common had knowledge about crowds-for-hire become that even staff members of the official Korean Overseas Information Office were able to confirm the going rate as South Korea’s crucial assembly election campaign closed Monday.

Marred by influence buying, mudslinging, violence, regional hostilities and a splintered opposition, the campaign was almost a replay of last year’s presidential battle. The big question to be answered when voters go to the polls today is how much confidence citizens will display in new President Roh Tae Woo and his promise to carry out full democratization in this country.

Reports that the opposition had “sold” nominations appeared alongside such charges as one made public Monday that one ruling party candidate had been caught trying to mail out $27 to each of 3,754 individual voters. Roh’s ruling Democratic Justice Party promptly withdrew its endorsement of the candidate.

Chun Corruption Scandal

A new corruption scandal swirling around former authoritarian President Chun Doo Hwan and his family also emerged, adding a note of uncertainty to forecasts about the outcome of the voting.

Nevertheless, analysts predict that voters will give Roh’s party a bigger vote of confidence than Roh himself won in his successful race for the presidency. The turnout, however, is expected to be far smaller than last December’s 89.2% of eligible voters.

Roh, pledging democratic reforms and warning that chaos will ensue if the opposition wins, polled 36.6% of the popular vote on Dec. 16, while South Korea’s two veteran opposition advocates of democracy, Kim Young Sam and Kim Dae Jung, split 55% between them.

This time, Korean and foreign analysts both say that Roh’s party could win as much as 40% of the popular vote.

The Rev. Kim Kwan Suk, honorary president of the Christian Broadcasting System, has described the opposition as hopelessly split, and that division is expected to allow the Democratic Justice Party to win a majority of the 299 assembly seats at stake today. One highly placed Western diplomat and a few Korean analysts go so far as to say that Roh’s party could wind up with 60% of the seats.

Under a new constitution approved last fall, Roh, unlike Chun, will have no power to dissolve the National Assembly. Constitutional change also gives the unicameral legislature new power to carry out investigations of the government--something opposition leaders promise to use to probe Chun’s alleged corruption if they win a majority.

Cover-Up Charges

Both Kim Dae Jung and Kim Young Sam accused Roh and his government of trying to cover up major portions of a scandal revolving around Chun Kyung Hwan, former President Chun’s younger brother, and demanded that Chun himself and other relatives be investigated.

Chun Kyung Hwan, who was jailed April 1 and indicted 15 days later, was accused of embezzling $10 million, evading $1.5 million in taxes and taking $567,000 in bribes.

In addition to forecasting chaos if the opposition wins, Roh’s party also asserted that it could disrupt the smooth staging of the Summer Olympic Games, scheduled to be held in Seoul from Sept. 17 to Oct. 2.

This is the first assembly election in 17 years in which voters will choose only one deputy from each of 224 local constituencies. Another 75 seats will be apportioned out to the parties on the basis of their victories in the direct-ballot contests.

All legislators will serve four-year terms.

The Central Election Management Commission put the number of eligible voters at 26,198,205.

In spite of attempts early this year to reunite their parties, the two Kims remain sharply divided and are running rival candidates in most districts.

Voter disillusionment with the endless squabbling of the two Kims has become so widespread that educator Horace Underwood, a longtime American resident, said that “everybody is just sort of fed up with the political shenanigans.” He noted that the Kims, despite their advocacy of democracy, named all of their parties’ candidates themselves, “from the top down.”

The arrest of Chun’s brother, analysts said, has helped Roh distance himself from his highly unpopular political mentor. In addition, Roh’s professions of democratic intent, although still largely awaiting implementation, have brought a new, more open atmosphere to the country. And despite a new wave of labor disputes, the economy, which grew 12% in real terms last year, is still booming.

During the campaign, the government’s Economic Planning Board predicted that the per capita gross national product will exceed $5,000--equal to that of an advanced industrialized nation--by 1992, Roh’s last full year in office. It also said that South Korea would pay off its foreign debt, in net terms, by 1991 and emerge as a creditor nation the following year.

The election results also were expected to determine the flavor of politics under Roh.

Reaction to the candidacies of 28 former military commanders among the ruling party’s nominees is expected to give a reading on voters’ feelings toward the armed forces’ role in politics, a major issue in last December’s presidential election.

A severe setback for the opposition is regarded as likely to write an end to the political fortunes of the two Kims, although their own personal prospects for victory differed.

Kim Dae Jung, who established the Party for Peace and Democracy to back his candidacy for president last fall, is running as a candidate at large, while Kim Young Sam of the Reunification Democratic Party is running from a safe district in his native city of Pusan.

Ranked 11th on his party’s list of national constituency candidates, Kim Dae Jung won’t gain a seat in the assembly unless his party’s nominees win at least 33 seats in the direct elections.

Allegations of torture of a political dissident test South Korea’s commitment to reform. Page 10.