POLITICS 88 : Pennsylvania Vote Today Seen as Big Boost to Dukakis Drive

Pennsylvania Democrats cast ballots in a primary election today that polls predict will give Massachusetts Gov. Michael S. Dukakis a big boost in his drive for his party’s presidential nomination.

The Republican primary almost certainly will lock in the Republican nomination for Vice President George Bush. According to the Associated Press, Bush had 1,081 delegates as of Monday. Pennsylvania is expected to award him all 96 delegates, which would provide him with more than the 1,139 needed for a majority at the Republican National Convention in New Orleans next August.

Has Clear Sailing

Bush has had no serious opposition since Kansas Sen. Bob Dole dropped out of the race March 29 after suffering a series of defeats to Bush in New Hampshire, the South and Illinois.

Dukakis is much further away from achieving a majority than Bush. The Associated Press calculation shows the governor with 1,075 delegates compared to 836 for the Rev. Jesse Jackson, his sole active opponent; 2,081 are needed to nominate.

But Dukakis has a good opportunity to capture a large share of Pennsylvania’s 178 convention delegates at stake today. A statewide poll conducted by KRC Research of Cambridge for television stations in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, shows Dukakis with 57% of the popular vote to 31% for Jackson.

Dukakis exuded confidence as he campaigned across the Keystone State, stressing jobs and unity and urging his supporters to “forget about the polls” which might lead to overconfidence.

Meanwhile, Jackson did not appear to enhance his chances here Monday, finding himself dogged all day by questions about his views on terrorism. He and campaign aides struggled to clarify his earlier remarks in which he said he would negotiate with, and possibly grant concessions to, terrorists to seek the release of American hostages.

Steps Up Attack on Dukakis

Jackson, who spoke on Monday to high school students in Pittsburgh, a Statehouse rally in Harrisburg and at labor and gay and lesbian events in Philadelphia, also continued to turn up slightly the volume of his criticism of Dukakis. He unveiled a new line mocking his rival for adopting many tenets of Jackson’s campaign message.

“That’s not bad,” Jackson said at a rally in Harrisburg. “He’s ratifying a great message . . . . But choose butter over margarine. I’m the real thing.”

But Jackson did not use more biting language that appeared in the text of a speech released by his campaign aides Monday.

“Leaders must make tough choices and gain popular support,” the text said. “I have put forth a plan to change our priorities, reduce our deficit and still have resources to invest in our people. Dukakis has not.

“I have put forth a plan to provide Head Start for children who need it. Dukakis has not. A plan for day care for working women. Dukakis has not. A plan for a serious war on drugs, with real money. Dukakis has not. . . .

“He has failed this challenge because he chooses not to reveal his priorities. He does not want to take the heat for demanding fair taxes for the rich and the corporations. He does not want to take the heat for limiting military spending.”

Part of Indirect Assault

The release of the text, which Jackson has shown no signs of delivering himself, was part of the campaign’s indirect attack on Dukakis, urging reporters to emphasize points the campaign has made subtly.

Robert Borosage, a senior Jackson policy adviser, contended that it is the role of the press to scrutinize successful candidates. “We got ours. Now it’s Dukakis’ turn,” he said.

But Dukakis showed no signs of worry, or eagerness to respond. It was a measure of his campaign’s confidence that the candidate’s only unusual comments were delivered to a group of 28 fidgety preschoolers in a nursery in an office building here in the state Capitol.

Sitting on a tot-sized blue plastic chair, beside his wife, Kitty, the earnest Massachusetts governor read aloud from “The Very Hungry Caterpillar,” a children’s counting book.

“What’s a caterpillar?,” he asked the children at one point. “You’ve seen those, haven’t you, guys? They’re kind of fuzzy.”

Dukakis kept many of his remarks to voters fuzzy as well, avoiding virtually any mention of Jackson, or even Bush, his likely opponent in the fall.

The only exception came during a morning meeting with about 50 black men and women in Bethel Holy Temple Church in North Philadelphia, Dukakis’ first and only appearance in a black neighborhood in the state.

In his opening remarks, Dukakis said he had been approached in New York City last week by a black lawyer wearing a “big Jesse Jackson button,” who had “thanked me for acting presidential” during the bitter New York campaign.

Wife Makes Moving Appeal

Earlier, in the school’s auditorium, Kitty Dukakis took the microphone to make a moving, personal appeal to the school’s 2,100 students. She explained, as she has before, how she became addicted to diet pills at age 19 and was dependent on them for 26 years.

“Life is sweeter and better since I began recovering,” she said as the students listened in rapt attention. “ . . . Why start? Why start? Life has more meaning!”

Dukakis repeated the blue-collar, bread-and-butter themes he has stressed in four days of campaigning here: He called for national factory closing legislation, guaranteed national health care, stricter drug enforcement and education, and “full employment” with “good jobs at good wages.”

“Make no mistake about it, my friends, I am a dyed-in-the-wool, true-blue, full-employment Democrat, and I mean a full-employment Democrat,” he told about 2,500 people who gathered under sunny skies and budding elm trees across from city hall in Erie.

The Dukakis campaign draws some of its confidence in today’s voting from the way the primary is designed. The popular vote is really a beauty contest, with the convention delegates decided by individual elections in each of the state’s 23 congressional districts.

Jackson’s support is concentrated in a few areas in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, and he has full slates of delegates pledged to him on the ballot in only 10 districts.

Key Districts for Jackson

His best chances for winning delegates appear to be in the state’s 1st and 2nd congressional districts in Philadelphia and, after that in Pittsburgh’s 14th congressional district. Jackson strategists say they must take this district if Jackson is to win 15% of the delegates elected in congressional districts, the threshold figure to qualify for at-large delegates.

Meanwhile, Bush on Monday continued his slower-paced campaign in Pennsylvania.

Without mentioning either Dukakis or Jackson, Bush scored the Democrats for adopting what he called “the doctrine of wishful thinking” in suggesting cuts in military spending.

“To cut the muscle out of the United States’ defense is simply unacceptable,” Bush told several hundred veterans gathered to hear him speak at the Pittsburgh Convention Center.

But Bush also acknowledged that the Reagan Administration’s policies have yet to conquer the difficulties faced by workers and communities in the nation’s “rust belt.”

“Our prosperity hasn’t spread smoothly across this country,” he said. “As you well know, we haven’t reached every area that’s hurting.

“The Mon (Monongahela) Valley, indeed a lot of southwest Pennsylvania, is still hurting. My own state of Texas is still hurting.”

Calls Programs Vital

Bush, visiting a job retraining center in Pittsburgh, met with several displaced workers and later told supporters that such programs were essential.