Southland on ‘Collision Course’ With Pollution Disaster, Officials Warn

Southern California is on a “collision course with disaster,” unless tough choices are made now on far-reaching efforts to manage growth and impose new regulations on polluters, officials said Saturday.

Without them, overcrowding, housing, air pollution and traffic congestion can be expected to become far more troublesome. The average driving time spent in stop-and-go traffic within the region would increase to 52% by the year 2010, from today’s 14%.

“This region is on a collision course with disaster,” said Mark Pisano, executive director of the Southern California Assn. of Governments (SCAG).

The sobering assessment of the region’s future in the absence of major shifts in planning came as SCAG and the South Coast Air Quality Management District on Saturday held the first of four forums to seek public reaction and guidance on policies to bring the four-county South Coast Air Basin into compliance with federal clear air standards by the year 2007.

In June, the AQMD will unveil its strategy, which is scheduled to be adopted by November.

The costs of managing the robust growth of Southern California are enormous. But officials said the costs of not doing so would be far greater.

Another 5 million people are expected to be in the area by the year 2010, bringing the population to 18.2 million in the six-county region of Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, Ventura and Imperial counties.

Simply to build freeways and mass transit systems to keep up with that growth would cost $110 billion in today’s dollars. Such an expenditure would, it was estimated, reduce the time spent in stop-and-go traffic to 8%.

Alternatives would include building new housing closer to jobs. By comparison, this approach would cost $82 billion.

Combination of Approaches

A combination of these and other approaches, including private market decisions--such as 10-hour-a-day, four-day work weeks--would cost $56 billion.

However, Gerald A. Silver of the no-growth-oriented “Alliance to Control Development in California,” told the forum the strategies ignored a fifth alternative--major growth controls.

”. . . What you need to do . . . is take this proposal back to the drawing boards and put on a fifth alternative--a no-growth, or slow-growth, alternative,” he said.

“People don’t have to move here and, most important, we do not have to provide the housing and the jobs to bring (them) in,” Silver said.

Silver’s views appeared to be widely shared by the audience, based on a show of hands.

The audience also indicated a strong concern over air-quality issues and traffic congestion.

Blames Birthrate

Santa Monica City Councilwoman Christine Reed said much of the growth results not from migration, but from the birthrate. She said there are 63% more births than deaths in the region.

“How do you tell people not to have babies, or to move out of the region?” Reed asked.