TIMES POLL : O’Connor Has 2-to-1 Lead in Mayor’s Race

Bolstered by an exceptionally high public-approval rating, San Diego Mayor Maureen O’Connor has a better than 2-to-1 lead over her only major opponent in next month’s mayoral primary, a Los Angeles Times poll shows.

With O’Connor holding a 48%-to-21% advantage over former City Councilman Floyd Morrow among San Diegans most likely to vote June 7, the mayor appears all but certain to surpass the 50% needed to win election outright in the primary and preclude a November runoff, the poll suggests.

But the poll also shows that, despite the mayor’s popularity, more than one-fourth of the prospective voters are still undecided and that some of Morrow’s support actually reflects an anti-O’Connor protest vote.

Some Supporters Lukewarm

In subsequent interviews, a number of the survey respondents indicated that their support of O’Connor is lukewarm. Many likely voters told The Times that they plan to vote for O’Connor not because they admire her record, but rather because they do not view Morrow or the three other minor candidates as strong alternatives.

The poll also vividly demonstrates how dramatically public opinion has swung in favor of growth restrictions, a traditionally emotional issue in San Diego. In the survey, more than three out of every four likely voters interviewed indicated that they support limits on development--even if those limits would harm business and cause a loss of jobs.

Both O’Connor and Morrow are perceived as slow-growth candidates, the poll shows, and a majority of their respective supporters strongly favors tough growth restrictions.

City’s Major Problems

Among other major findings, the poll found that San Diegans consider overbuilding, traffic congestion, drugs and crime to be the major problems facing the city. Voters are nearly evenly divided in their feelings toward O’Connor’s proposal for a Soviet arts festival in San Diego.

The Times poll is based on telephone interviews conducted May 7 of 822 city of San Diego residents, 472 of whom said they are registered and intend to vote in next month’s primary. The poll’s margin of sampling error is plus or minus 5 percentage points.

Based on the poll’s findings, O’Connor appears headed for an overwhelming reelection to the $60,000-a-year post she won in the special June, 1986, election necessitated when then-Mayor Roger Hedgecock was forced to resign after a 13-count felony conviction.

A Lackluster Campaign

With less than a month remaining in what has been a lackluster and at times almost non-existent campaign, O’Connor has a seemingly insurmountable 48%-to-21% lead over Morrow among likely voters, 26% of whom are undecided, the poll shows.

The three long shots in the race--frequent candidate John Kelley, businessman Charles Ulmschneider and City Hall gadfly Rose Lynne--cumulatively account for only about 5% of the voters polled.

Those who plan to vote for O’Connor cited a variety of the mayor’s policies, style and personal characteristics as the reasons for their support.

Growth Efforts Praised

In particular, O’Connor’s supporters praised her growth-management efforts, her leadership role in pushing for a new sewage treatment plant, and the fact that she made good on her 1986 campaign pledge to provide city money for after-school recreation programs. In terms of personality and style, many of the mayor’s supporters said she is a native San Diegan who understands the city’s needs and who listens to the needs of average citizens.

“She seems to really have the city’s best interest at heart,” Richard Harris Jr. of Southeast San Diego said. “It’s obvious she cares about all citizens.”

Overall, the poll’s respondents approved of O’Connor’s performance in office by a 3-to-1 ratio, an unusually high positive rating at any level of elective politics. Of those interviewed, 24% said they strongly approve of the way O’Connor has handled the city’s top elected position, 46% approved somewhat, and only 23% disapproved.

Enviable Percentage

“Even a president at the height of his popularity usually doesn’t get that high of a favorable rating,” said I. A. Lewis, The Times’ poll director. “And a lot of politicians would love to have that low of an unpopularity figure.”

O’Connor’s support is almost equally divided between men and women and among all age groups, educational backgrounds, races and ethnic groups, according to the poll. Her supporters also tend to be left of center on the political spectrum, with 42% of them identifying themselves as liberals. In contrast, Morrow’s voters are predominantly male, older and more conservative.

The poll identified a clear distinction between the O’Connor and Morrow voters in regard to what they perceive to be the city’s most pressing problems. O’Connor supporters are more worried about overbuilding than Morrow’s backers, whereas Morrow’s partisans view crime as a bigger problem than do O’Connor’s--in both cases by a 2-to-1 margin.

Seen as More Trustworthy

In line with that finding, the poll shows that the major factors that will draw Morrow’s supporters to the polls include voter perception that he would be tough on crime and drug problems and is more trustworthy than the other candidates.

However, 15% of Morrow’s supporters acknowledged that they know little if anything about the former three-term councilman, and another 10% expressed an unfavorable impression of him. Those votes can clearly be interpreted, pollster Lewis explained, as a protest vote against O’Connor.

Interviews with some of those who said they intend to vote for Morrow reinforce that interpretation.

‘Not the Best Person’

“I don’t know much about Morrow, but I don’t like what I do know about Maureen O’Connor,” said Sylvia Ferrer-McGrade of East San Diego. “With O’Connor, it seems like there’s a lack of vision, not a real commitment to what she sees for the future. It just seems like she’s not the best person for the job.”

Similarly, John Gorham of Scripps Ranch described his vote as “more of an anti-Maureen O’Connor thing than pro-Floyd Morrow.” He faulted O’Connor for what he sees as ill-advised growth-control policies that will eventually harm the city by driving up housing costs and reducing its tax base.

Dissatisfaction with O’Connor’s record over the last two years may have contributed to indecisiveness among some voters, as reflected in the poll’s finding that 26% of those who expect to vote next month are still undecided.

Paucity of News Coverage

Other factors to which that voter uncertainty can be attributed include the relative paucity in news coverage of the campaign and the fact that Morrow, who left the council in 1979, is an unknown commodity to many voters, despite his several unsuccessful political bids in recent years.

In one typical response, Barbara Spanis of Pacific Beach explained the reasons she is undecided by saying: “I don’t like Maureen O’Connor much, but I don’t know much about Floyd Morrow, and I really haven’t been following the news enough. So I’m in a very ambiguous situation right now.”

Underlining the pivotal political role that the volatile growth issue has traditionally played in environment-conscious San Diego, an overwhelming majority of those polled said they favor growth-control measures.

Less Clear-Cut on Festival

Asked whether they favor limits on development, even if those restrictions might hurt business and cause a loss of jobs, 77% of those questioned said yes. Only 16% said they favor growth and economic development, even if that growth could have an undesirable effect on the quality of life.

The poll’s results were less clear-cut, however, in regard to O’Connor’s proposal that the city host a Soviet arts festival in 1989 or 1990 to promote the arts in San Diego and to benefit the city in general. O’Connor and other city officials are scheduled to visit the Soviet Union next month to review artistic exhibitions and meet with Soviet officials.

Forty percent of the poll’s respondents said they favor the proposed festival, one of the major initiatives of O’Connor’s mayoralty, while 35% oppose it and 25% are either undecided or do not know enough about it to form an opinion.

Could Attract Tourists

Supporters of the festival hailed it as a valuable cultural exchange that would expose San Diegans to Soviet art that otherwise would be seen by few of them. In the process, the festival perhaps could attract free-spending tourists to San Diego, others said.

“I think it’s a good idea; the exchange of ideas and arts is always worthwhile,” said Erwin Holk of East San Diego.

Opponents, however, argued that there are better ways for the city to spend its money and for the mayor to spend her time.

“That Soviet arts idea of hers just frosts me to the hall of fame,” said Michael Pierce of the State College Area. “First, the money’s needed elsewhere. And besides, there’s something wrong about bringing a bunch of Russians to a fairly sensitive city when you know they’re not going to arrive here . . . without some KGB types among them.”

Edward Steinmetz of College Grove added: “The city can spend its money much better. An arts festival is fine and dandy. But there are so many more pressing needs that the city can ill afford to spend any money on something like this.”

THE MAYOR’S PERFORMANCE

Generally speaking, do you approve or disapprove of the way Maureen O’Connor is handling her job as mayor of San Diego? Do you approve/disapprove strongly or do you approve/disapprove somewhat? Or haven’t you heard enough about that to say?

Approve strongly 24%

Approve somewhat 46%

Disapprove somewhat 12%

Disapprove strongly 11%

Haven’t heard enough 3%

Don’t know 4%

SAN DIEGO’S LARGEST PROBLEM

In your opinion, which of the following is the biggest problem facing San Diego today? (Respondent was allowed two answers.)

Traffic congestion 33%

Overbuilding 31%

Drugs 31%

Crime 26%

Sewage treatment 22%

Shortage of affordable housing 18%

Jail overcrowding 12%

Trash disposal 3%

Other 6%

Don’t know 2%

THE GROWTH ISSUE

Are you in favor of slowing down growth and limiting development, even if that may hurt business and result in the loss of some jobs in San Diego? Or are you in favor of growth and economic development, even if that may have an undesireable effect on living conditions and the quality of life in San Diego? Do you feel strongly about that or not so strongly?

Favor limits on growth strongly 58%

Favor limits on growth not so strongly 19%

Fvor growth not so strongly 9%

Favor growth strongly 7%

Don’t know 7%