Long-Term Writers Strike May Affect Videos

The TV and movie industries are reeling from the writers strike. What does this mean for home video?

Right now, industry observers believe, not much. However, there are fears that if the strike now in its 15th week continues much longer, there will be long-range, negative effects on home video.

About six months after a movie reaches the theaters, it generally debuts on home video. If there are fewer theatrical releases down the road because of the strike that began March 7, there will be a similar decline in new home-video product.

“If (the strike) is settled in the next month or two, there won’t be much of an effect on home video,” said Reg Childs, president of Nelson Entertainment. “A few months gap in the start of new productions can be overcome.”

Jonathan Dana, president of the motion picture and TV group of Atlantic Entertainment, agreed: “If it’s over soon, I don’t think the average customer or the average retailer would notice the impact too much.”

However, John Taylor of Ingram Video, a distribution company, insisted that a longer strike--six months or more--would seriously hurt home video: “That would mean a big decrease in the number of movies released. We distributors count on a continuous flow of movies from Hollywood. Without that steady flow, the whole system gets fouled up. Business would be way down.”

Nelson’s Childs added, “If the strike goes on into the fall, home video will feel the effects as early as late ‘89, but certainly in 1990 and 1991. There won’t be enough product to fill the home-video pipeline.”

But, according to Atlantic’s Dana, it would take a very long strike to wreak havoc on home video. “If the strike goes into next year--which is highly unlikely--there will be a giant problem for home video.”

If an extended writers strike causes a drop in the number of feature films debuting on home video, what options are open to video companies?

“You have to keep feeding that distribution animal with something ,” Childs said. “The first choice is independently produced feature films--those unaffected by the strike. (Video) companies would go after marginal product--movies that had limited theatrical release or no theatrical release at all.”

Competition for these cheaper movies, he believes, would become much stiffer--and general quality will suffer. “The bigger the gap in the release schedule, the more companies will lower their (standards). They’ll be looking for anything to keep the system going.”

Another option: more non-theatrical product. “If there aren’t as many movies available, some companies may invest in alternative programming,” Childs said. “The idea is that if customers can’t get movies, some might turn to these other programs, like instructional programs, etc.”

At least one retailer, Videotheque’s Meir Hed, doesn’t think a drought in new releases would devastate the home-video business: “Without new movies, traffic in video stores might be down, but this wouldn’t ruin the business. There are thousands and thousands of movies on home video.”

A lack of new-movie product wouldn’t necessarily be all bad, Hed suggested. “It would give people a chance to catch up on what they haven’t seen.”