L.A. County to Lead Surge in Population, Study Predicts

Led by booming Los Angeles County, the nation’s 40 fastest-growing metropolitan areas are expected to add more than 13 million residents by the year 2000, accounting for nearly half of the total population growth in the United States, according to a nationwide study released Tuesday.

Los Angeles County, with an estimated 8.5 million residents, will add more than 1 million more to its crowded streets and schools by the century’s end, thanks largely to foreign immigration, Pacific Rim economic growth and the continuing migration of workers to jobs in the Sun Belt, predicted NPA Data Services Inc. of Washington.

In addition, 10 other California metropolitan areas will absorb much of the growth, notably Riverside, Orange and San Diego counties, researchers concluded.

Riverside County Moving Up

Riverside County, with 946,000 residents, is expected to add 724,000 residents by 2000, placing it third in total growth behind Los Angeles and the Houston metropolitan area.

Orange and San Diego counties, with nearly identical populations of about 2.3 million, each will add about 560,000 residents to rank seventh and eighth in the nation, researchers predicted.

The study, based on U.S. Census figures and economic reports prepared by the U.S. Department of Commerce, was designed to look at the role that major metropolitan areas would play in accommodating the nation’s future growth, said Nestor Terleckyj, president of the private research firm.

Growth Rate to Slip

Terleckyj said the U.S. population would grow by 26.6 million by the end of the century, reflecting a slightly slower growth rate than the 2.3-million annual climb the country experienced from 1980 to 1986. He placed the future yearly rate at about 1.9 million, with 49.6% of that growth occurring in 40 metropolitan areas.

California was the leading state, according to forecasters, accounting for 11 of the fastest-growing metropolitan areas, followed by Florida with six, Texas with five and Arizona and North Carolina with two each.

The figures for Los Angeles County were described as similar to earlier projections by the Southern California Assn. of Governments (SCAG) and the Center for the Continuing Study of the California Economy, in Palo Alto.

In 1986, SCAG predicted that Los Angeles County’s population would increase to 10.2 million by the year 2010 and that Southern California’s total population would increase 43%--to more than 18 million--during the same time period.

“Our projections are fairly conservative when you actually look at them,” Terleckyj said Tuesday in a telephone interview. He characterized Los Angeles as an emerging financial center that would continue to draw job-seekers and employers in a variety of fields, including many specializing in Pacific Rim trade. He said Los Angeles’ status as an economic powerhouse would play a greater role than its much-noted climate in attracting new residents.

Terleckyj’s population projections for Riverside, Orange and San Diego counties were challenged by SCAG researchers, however.

‘A Little High’

Arnie Sherwood, SCAG’s director of Community and Economic Development, called the figures “a little high.” Earlier studies, based on demographic data and U.S. economic reports, showed that Riverside County would grow by an average of only about 500,000 residents in each of the next two decades, he said.

Similarly, it may take more than two decades--not just one--for Orange and San Diego counties to reach 2.8 million residents each, Sherwood said.

Consultant Chuck Coleman, who helped prepare the NPA Data Services report, said that either way the national trend is clear: Strong economic areas will draw new residents both from abroad and from economically weak farm areas.

“The jobs are in the cities and that’s where people are going,” he said.