A Race Worth Running
After an initial flurry of excitement last year following breathtaking advances in high-temperature superconductivity, American interest in this new technology has died down. At the same time, according to a new report from the congressional Office of Technology Assessment, the interest of the Japanese continues unabated, and “American companies may already be falling behind foreign competitors in the race to move high-temperature superconductivity into the marketplace.”
Superconductivity is the phenomenon by which electricity moves through a substance without any loss. Until two years ago it could be achieved only at temperatures near absolute zero, which was difficult and expensive to achieve and maintain. But then a series of laboratory breakthroughs led to the discovery of substances that are superconducting at much higher and more manageable temperatures (though still way below room temperature). The prospect loomed of a revolution in the generation, transmission and use of electric power. Among the benefits forecast were magnetically levitated trains, improved medical diagnostic systems and faster computers.
But converting a laboratory advance to a commercial product requires at least as much effort as the original advance itself. It is at this stage that American industry is being eclipsed by the Japanese. “Despite some major efforts in high-temperature superconductivity,” the Office of Technology Assessment found, “most American managers, under pressure to show short-term profits, have tended to wait and see. They plan to take advantage of developments as they emerge --from someone else’s laboratory--or buy into emerging markets when the time is right. Unfortunately, such reactive strategies have seldom worked in industries like electronics over the past 10 to 15 years.”
By comparison, “Japanese companies have been more aggressive than U.S. companies in examining possible applications of high-temperature superconductivity, viewing it as a potential new focus for international competition. While R&D; payoffs may be a decade or more in the future, managers in Japan have been willing to take risks.”
Furthermore, the Japanese government is assisting heavily in the commercialization of superconductivity while the U.S. government continues to rely on indirect assistance, like tax policy and looser antitrust enforcement, to stimulate commercial innovation. This approach “does not, by itself, accomplish enough,” the study concludes.
The Office of Technology Assessment report comes at a crucial moment in the superconductivity saga. The United States has not lost the battle yet--as it has in color television sets, VCRs and advanced computer chips. But the handwriting is on the wall. Unless Congress acts to assist American industry in commercializing this technology, the United States will once again see the fruits of its research reaped elsewhere.
This assistance could take several forms, each of which would be a departure from past practice. While the U.S. government has paid for a great deal of scientific research and development since World War II, it has generally not provided the funds to commercialize new technologies. This step has been left to industry, a policy that has not always worked well in the past and threatens not to work well in the present.
This year the federal government will spend about $95 million on superconductivity research but virtually nothing on developing commercial products from these advances. For a modest additional expense or redirection of some of the money already allocated, the government could help American companies stake out the marketplace for superconducting products. Congress should consider whether this new technology and continuing competition from the Japanese callfor a new strategy for federal spending on science.
