POLITICS ’88 : Choice of Bentsen a Pragmatic Gamble That May Sow Discord

Michael S. Dukakis’ career, which carried him to the governorship of Massachusetts and almost certainly to the 1988 Democratic presidential nomination in Atlanta next week, was shaped in the crucible of reform.

But, when it came to the most important decision of his political life--picking a presidential running mate--Dukakis’ announcement Tuesday disclosed that he had fallen back on one of the oldest gambits in the electoral power game: He chose someone to help him carry a big state.

His choice, Sen. Lloyd Bentsen of Texas, hails from a state whose 29 electoral votes make it the third-richest prize in the November race. And the fact that it is the Lone Star State places the decision even more squarely in the realm of traditional politics: It revives memories of the Boston-to-Austin ticket which carried Massachusetts Sen. John F. Kennedy and Texas Sen. Lyndon B. Johnson to victory in 1960.

As a result, Dukakis’ selection of a running mate casts a revealing light on the values and priorities he brings to bear on critical decisions.

Hard-Nosed Decision

In selecting a vice presidential nominee whose background and outlook seem to differ sharply from his own, Dukakis based his decision on hard-nosed tactical grounds that contrast with the impression of idealistic purity he has sought to foster in his campaign--including the lofty notion that his chief criterion in making the choice would be the running mate’s qualifications to succeed him as President.

Moreover, Bentsen’s selection contravenes the common perception that the governor’s political judgments are always ruled by caution.

By any reckoning, the selection of a running mate from the same state as George Bush represented a gamble with momentous consequences for Democratic fortunes next fall--a gamble that might bring victory but could just as easily sow fatal new discord in an already divided party.

“He went to Bush’s strongest fortification,” declared Southern pollster Claibourne Darden Jr., “laid down all his chips and said, ‘OK, let’s play.’ ”

Democrats immediately hailed the gamble.

‘A Bold Opportunity’

“What Democrats have suffered from is an inability to wage a full-court press in the electoral college,” said William Carrick, campaign manager for Missouri Rep. Richard A. Gephardt, who was himself a contender for the slot that went to Bentsen. “I think this gives us a bold opportunity to do just that.”

But Republicans scoffed at such talk.

“I think they’ve wasted their shot,” said David Keene, senior adviser to the presidential campaign of Kansas Sen. Bob Dole. Keene argued that Bush was too strongly entrenched in his adopted state to lose out to Bentsen. “This isn’t going to get them Texas. And, meanwhile, they’ve wasted their best opportunity, in the Midwest, by not picking Gephardt or (Ohio Sen. John) Glenn.”

Regional considerations aside, Republicans pointed out that, in picking the 67-year-old Bentsen, Dukakis passed up a chance to give his ticket what many feel would have been a much-needed shot of vitality--and a futuristic look--by selecting a younger man, with Tennessee Sen. Albert Gore Jr. or Gephardt mentioned as the most likely possibilities.

Texas a Vital State

Still, the Democratic view was dominated by the opportunity they believed Bentsen offered to carry Texas--without which no Democratic President has been elected in this century. “If Lloyd Bentsen can carry Texas, he’s worth his weight in gold,” said Mark Mellman, pollster for the Gore presidential campaign.

Indeed, in the early optimistic glow of the announcement, some Democrats talked of Bentsen’s not only helping them capture Texas but quite possibly some neighboring states, such as Arkansas and Louisiana.

In addition, they figured his nomination might help blunt resentment elsewhere in Dixie at the recent domination of their party by Yankees and help the 1988 ticket make inroads into what Republicans now hopefully refer to as their “Solid South.”

Bentsen’s appeal in the South has to do not just with geography but also with ideology. “He certainly is a mainstream Democrat with very strong ties to the business community and a sense of fiscal responsibility,” said Republican consultant John Deardourff. “You can’t accuse the Democratic ticket of tilting to the left. And it may pin Bush down in Texas.”

And Bentsen brings a tinge of conservatism to foreign policy, too. Adolfo Calero, leader of the Contra forces in Nicaragua, said of the choice: “(It) does help from our perspective that Sen. Bentsen has always voted for aid,” a position diametrically opposed to that of Dukakis, who considers U.S. backing of the Contras to be illegal.

The choice of Bentsen caused a few gulps in Republican ranks. “They really know how to go for the jugular,” one Bush campaign aide was heard to mutter.

And a colleague glumly recalled that Bentsen had drubbed Bush when the vice president ran for the Senate in 1970, his only campaign for statewide office.

Other Republicans pointed out that GOP strength in Texas has increased dramatically in the last two decades; the state now has 10 Republican congressmen, for example.

And some noted that Texas voters might take into account the two favorite sons’ positions on the tickets. Texans, said Sen. Phil Gramm (R-Tex.), a former Democrat whom Bentsen defeated in the 1976 Senate primary, “have a clear choice--they can elect one of their own for President or elect one of their own for vice president.”

“The Democrats have squandered an opportunity by going into a state where Bush already has a leg up,” said Linda Divall, a Dole pollster. “The choice gives Bush greater flexibility in making his own choice.”

Bush’s options include picking Dole or some other Midwesterner to bolster GOP chances in the Farm Belt, Divall said, selecting a woman to close the gender gap or aiming at the two states larger than Texas by choosing either California Gov. George Deukmejian or New York Rep. Jack Kemp.

Other GOP professionals questioned the wisdom of Bentsen’s running for his Senate seat while campaigning for vice president, as they expect him to do. “This is going to keep the Democratic vice presidential candidate tied up in one state,” said GOP consultant Eddie Mahe. Meanwhile, Mahe predicted, Republican contributors will pour funds into the campaign of Bentsen’s Senate opponent, Bo Baulter.

Staff writers Cathleen Decker in Washington and David Lauter in Boston contributed to this story.