Deukmejian’s Future: 3rd Term, Cabinet Post or a Wealthy Lawyer?

Now, with all the vice presidential talk and the Republican Convention behind him, new speculation begins concerning Gov. George Deukmejian: Will he run for a third term in 1990 or retire to become a rich lawyer?

Or, will he serve out the rest of his current term in Sacramento and take a Cabinet post in a Bush administration?

The betting on a third term bid is even odds, having fallen from a year ago when the governor was reported by aides to be leaning toward running again.

Since that time the Republican governor has suffered some disheartening political knocks, including the Democratic Legislature’s refusal to confirm his nominee for state treasurer, Rep. Daniel F. Lungren (R-Long Beach); narrow rejection by voters of his proposed $1-billion transportation bond issue, and an abortive, embarrassing attempt to raise taxes to make up for a revenue deficit.

Deukmejian told people at the GOP convention that he would decide on a third-term bid after the Nov. 8 election, by the end of this year or early next. If Deukmejian does run again, aides said, one thing will be done differently than last time: He will try to make sure that a fellow Republican is elected lieutenant governor so that he can be available for a potential spot on the 1992 presidential ticket.

“Our biggest political mistake of the first term was in not getting behind our own candidate for lieutenant governor in the 1986 primary,” said a Deukmejian adviser, who did not want to be identified.

Former Lt. Gov. Mike Curb, generally regarded as a weak candidate, won the GOP nomination and was beaten by Democratic incumbent Leo T. McCarthy.

As a result, Deukmejian believed he could not become available for second spot on this year’s presidential ticket because if he were elected, he would have to turn over the governor’s office to a Democrat.

Bush’s chief of staff, Craig Fuller, said Deukmejian was “seriously considered” anyway until the governor sent Bush a letter Aug. 4 saying he could not accept the post if offered. Still, Fuller said, “we always figured that if we really thought we needed him, we’d go after him.”

But another Bush adviser, who asked not to be identified, said that the campaign’s private polls showed that Deukmejian “wouldn’t help” Bush carry California and its biggest-in-the-nation block of 47 electoral votes.

“He didn’t help; he didn’t hurt,” the strategist said.

Approval Rating

Deukmejian’s job approval rating remains high among California voters. In a recent survey by Mervin Field’s California Poll, 52% said the governor was doing an “excellent” or “good” job, compared to only 17% who thought he was doing a “poor” job.

“Californians have a bead on Deukmejian,” Field said in an interview. “He’s ‘the fiscal steward,’ who manages the state’s fiscal affairs properly. But they do not perceive of him as someone who would do well on the national scene. His views are parochial.”

Looking toward a possible third-term bid, Field said Deukmejian is “very strong”--if for no other reason than he has the governor’s office for a forum. But “he needs to appear to be more visionary,” Field said.

“That’s where he’s weakest. He needs to talk about California into the 21st Century,” he said.

Among the 60-year-old governor’s options is to go into private law practice, where, friends say, he could probably earn anywhere from $250,000 to $1 million a year depending on how hard he wanted to work. Deukmejian, a former state attorney general who has spent virtually all of his adult life in public office, is a man of moderate means.

‘Public Official’

But Karl M. Samuelian, a wealthy Los Angeles lawyer who also is Deukmejian’s chief campaign fund-raiser, said that the governor “always has enjoyed himself as a public official, and if his chances of winning (a third term) are real good, I think he’ll go for it.”

Another option might be to ultimately become a Cabinet officer--such as attorney general--if Bush should win in November. But Deukmejian’s chief of staff, Michael Frost, said Thursday: “I can’t imagine him doing that. If he doesn’t want to be vice president, I don’t think he’d want to to go back (to Washington) as a Cabinet member.”

Although other advisers--in and out of state government--envision Deukmejian possibly becoming a candidate for President or vice president in 1992 if Bush should lose, Frost said: “I’d be very surprised if George Deukmejian ever became a candidate for President of the United States and started traveling around the country and actually campaigning. I just don’t think he has the bug to do it. It’s not his all-consuming ambition to run for national office.”

Odds on Winning

Deukmejian associates say his decision about whether to run for reelection will be based on whether he really wants to be governor another four years--or feels burned out--and his odds on winning. Deukmejian was a relatively young state legislator in 1966 when Democratic Gov. Edmund G. (Pat) Brown ran for a third term and lost by a landslide to Ronald Reagan. That humiliating loss left a lasting impression on Deukmejian, friends say.

Deukmejian would have a big advantage over his potential opponents in campaign contributions if he were to run for reelection. A complex revision of the law regulating political donations approved by voters in the June primary makes it a lot easier for an incumbent governor to raise funds.

For that reason, Deukmejian believes he must decide on his future by the end of this year in order to allow any potential GOP candidates--such as Lungren and state Senate Minority Leader Ken Maddy of Fresno--an opportunity to raise money and develop a campaign.