1988 REPUBLICAN NATIONAL CONVENTION : For GOP Ticket, a Strong Showing in California Could Be Pure Gold

For George Bush, it beckons like a siren out on the Pacific--beautiful, seductive and treacherous.

California.

Its 47 electoral votes are the biggest prize for the strategists trying to get Bush the 270 he needs to win the presidency.

But something else is at stake, too: California is Ronald Reagan’s home, it is a state with a rising tide of Republican voters and one that traditionally votes for GOP presidential candidates.

Must Narrow the Gap

If Bush doesn’t run strongly in California, if he doesn’t soon narrow the gap he faces there, it could spell trouble for his entire campaign.

The latest California Poll conducted by Mervin Field, taken before the GOP convention, had Bush losing to Democrat Michael S. Dukakis by 16 points. Nearly half of those polled viewed Bush unfavorably, while only 24% had that feeling about his opponent.

“California is so reflective of the rest of the country that if you are not doing well in California it affects what you are doing elsewhere,” said Edward J. Rollins, who ran Reagan’s 1984 campaign.

“If the Democrats could ever get the psychological advantage that they’re going to win California,” he said, “you’ve taken a very big hole out of the side of our whole electoral strategy.”

As Bush comes out of the Republican convention, his advisers are already shaping a plan for California that will attempt to shift the campaign away from personality--where they believe Dukakis has the edge--and toward issues that cut in the Golden State.

Will Treat Him as Liberal

All politics are local, as the saying goes, and the Bush people are going to run the race against Dukakis as if he were a liberal candidate for governor.

“If California becomes a battleground on specific issues, Bush will eat Dukakis up,” said Kenneth L. Khachigian of San Clemente, a former Reagan speech writer and now an adviser to the Bush campaign.

“On the issues, Michael Dukakis believes in gun control, which is a loser with Reagan Democrats in California. He is against the death penalty, which is death in this state. And he is probably against every major strategic defense program that is based in this state.”

Khachigian, who helped GOP Gov. George Deukmejian win two elections, added: “You start with a very simple premise: Would the people of California elect Michael Dukakis governor? I think based on history you would have to answer no. So why should they support him for President?

“Say Michael Dukakis is running for governor in California imbued with the same principles, beliefs, patterns of thought and background that he had when he ran for governor of Massachusetts. Could he get elected? The answer is no in my judgment.”

Playing Hard to Get

The vice president can rely heavily on paid television advertising to attack Dukakis. But he must rely on his own record as a former combat pilot, diplomat and successful family man to court California voters who, up to now, have been playing hard to get when not being downright hostile.

The reaction of Californians, on the left and the right, who watched Bush’s speech on television at home was positive.

“He came across very well. He projected considerably more dignity than he normally does,” said Nelson W. Polsby, author of “Presidential Politics,” a professor of political science at UC Berkeley and a critic of Reagan-era policies.

Polsby said he was impressed with the way Bush handled the matter of his personal wealth, a subject that has proved troublesome in the past.

“He handled well the fact that he grew up rich. By putting himself in the company of Kennedy and (Theodore) Roosevelt, he made the point that being a rich kid doesn’t disqualify you from being President.”

Worked as Personal Statement

Chip Neilsen, counsel for the Bush campaign in California, said the speech succeeded as a personal statement.

“It was much more personal than I expected. He was saying ‘you don’t know who I am or what I would do in a crisis and I want to start telling you.’ He was under control. He was organized. He was funny. He gave the impression it was his speech, him talking, not a script,” Neilsen said.

Political observers had said all along that Bush faces the same task in California as he does nationally.

“He has to get his own identity out there,” said Stuart K. Spencer, Reagan’s chief consultant in his two successful presidential campaigns.

“First, he has to make sure he has the Ronald Reagan base and then reach out to the disaffected Democrats of the last eight years. I don’t think George needs them all, but he needs some of them.”

Skeptical of Background

But consider what another GOP strategist says is a major problem for Bush among Reagan Democrats in the San Joaquin Valley, a problem that Reagan never faced: The view that the well-born Bush just isn’t one of them.

“There is a rotten streak of red-neckism that runs through this valley,” said John Hix of Fresno, who has helped manage several Republican campaigns. “Bush doesn’t sell. I don’t know how he can change that in a couple of months.”

Also, what worked for Reagan--essentially an anti-government message that was born in California--won’t work for Bush, if polls are correct in showing that Californians have changed their minds about government.

After eight years of low unemployment and low taxes, polls show Californians more willing to pay for better government services such as schools, health care and housing.

One Republican politician warned that Bush has to understand that these issues are gaining favor even among traditionally suspicious members of his own party.

‘Big Job Ahead of Him’

“Issues like health care and housing are rippling up to my part of the state,” said state Sen. Ken Maddy of Fresno. “George Bush has a big job ahead of him because he’s got to speak to those issues without sounding like Michael Dukakis. He’s going to have to outline strong programs without reflecting me-tooism.”

But it isn’t all bad news for Bush in California.

For starters, no one can energize the state’s conservatives like Reagan, and he has promised to do it with vigor for Bush.

Deukmejian Backing

Bush will also have Deukmejian, a very popular governor, going all out for him.

“He will have the organization that elected me twice,” said Deukmejian recently.

But on closer inspection, there is some question about how much of an organization there really is beyond Deukmejian’s formidable fund-raising apparatus and his computerized list of campaign volunteers.

By contrast, California Democrats are mounting for Dukakis the same kind of nuts-and-bolts voter identification and turnout effort that is credited with helping U.S. Sen. Alan Cranston squeak to victory in 1986.

Some Republicans suspect that the Bush strategy will consist mainly of campaign appearances by the candidate and his running mate, Indiana Sen. Dan Quayle, and a heavy dependence on television advertisements. The latter are always a major factor in California.

Ads Could Gobble Funds

But to be effective, the cost of running those ads in the huge state could gobble up a major chunk of the $46 million Bush can spend on his entire campaign.

Republican presidential candidates have won California every time but once for the last 40 years. But in many of those elections there was a Californian on the ticket. Bush not only lacks that advantage, he is in the peculiar position of never having established himself in the state in deference to Reagan.

Rollins thinks Bush can turn it around, but he is amazed at the situation a Republican presidential candidate finds himself in in this particular state:

“If the election were held today, we’d lose California.”